《全面禁止核试验条约》的当前困境与未来发展前景

发布时间：2018-05-31 22:35

本文选题：《全面禁止核试验条约》 + 地缘政治　；参考：《国际论坛》2017年03期

【摘要】：《全面禁止核试验条约》已经达成20周年却迟迟不能生效,其面临的首要困境在于条约生效所必要的最后8个"附件2"国家间存在长期的地缘政治竞争和互信缺失。各国核政策互相绑定在一起导致在加入条约的问题上出现双边博弈、地区内博弈以及地区间博弈嵌套的复杂环境。此外,条约本身的部分条款和相关制度设计也存在缺陷。尽管是为了提升条约的普遍性,但将条约的生效与世界上最为复杂的几组地缘政治关系相挂钩很容易导致自我绑架。由于条约生效进程迟滞而科学技术不断发展,已经建成的全球监测网络和计算机模拟技术使得条约生效的意义出现空洞化。考虑到短期内正面解决地缘政治困境存在巨大挑战,今后"名人小组"和"青年小组"将成为继续推动相关进程的主要力量。
[Abstract]:The entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), which has already reached its 20th anniversary but has been delayed, faces a major dilemma due to the long-standing geopolitical competition and lack of mutual trust among the last eight "Annex 2" States necessary for the Treaty to enter into force. The nuclear policies of various countries are bound together, which leads to the complicated environment of bilateral game, intraregional game and inter-region game nesting on the issue of joining the treaty. In addition, some provisions of the treaty itself and the design of the relevant system also have defects. Although it is intended to promote the universality of the treaty, linking its entry into force to some of the world's most complex geopolitical relationships can easily lead to self-kidnapping. Due to the slow entry into force of the treaty and the continuous development of science and technology, the significance of the entry into force of the treaty has been hollowed out by the global monitoring network and computer simulation technology. Given the enormous challenges of dealing positively with geopolitical dilemmas in the short term, the "panel of celebrities" and the "youth group" will be the main force behind the process in the future.
【作者单位】：复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院;
【分类号】：D815.2;D993.8

【相似文献】