美澳双边安全关系的新发展、战略限度与中长期态势

发布时间：2018-06-19 14:51

本文选题：美澳安全合作 + 美澳同盟　；参考：《国际安全研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：奥巴马上任以来,美国和澳大利亚双边安全关系出现了新进展:两国安全合作的战略地位提升,技术层面的合作不断加深,安全政策的协调更加密切,澳大利亚在地区安全秩序上进一步偏向美国。但这种新发展也有一定的战略限度,即避免过度激怒中国。由于密切的中澳经济关系、中澳两国间不存在直接的领土冲突以及相对中立更有利于澳大利亚的地区影响力,澳美安全合作短期内存在这样的战略限度。此外,美国国内政治和外交政策走向的不确定性以及澳大利亚和其他亚太国家关系的发展变化,也是影响澳美安全合作战略限度的因素。两国中长期的安全关系总的来说会朝着更加密切、重要和一体化的方向发展,但这一态势最终取决于地区力量结构以及中美澳三边关系的变化,原因在于,美澳两国之间的安全合作没有太大的现实障碍,并有相当的动力继续加强安全上的合作。同时,随着澳大利亚与《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》成员的经贸依赖关系的加深,对中国经济依赖度的降低可能成为一个影响澳大利亚外交政策选择的长期重要因素。
[Abstract]:Since Obama took office, there has been new progress in bilateral security relations between the United States and Australia: the strategic status of security cooperation between the two countries has increased, cooperation at the technical level has deepened, and security policies have been more closely coordinated. Australia is further biased towards the United States in the regional security order. But this new development also has a strategic limit, that is, to avoid excessive irritation of China. Because of the close economic relationship between China and Australia, there is no direct territorial conflict between the two countries and relatively neutral is more conducive to Australian regional influence, Australia and the United States security cooperation in the short term there is such a strategic limit. In addition, the uncertainty of the direction of American domestic politics and foreign policy and the development of the relationship between Australia and other Asia-Pacific countries are also the factors that influence the strategic limits of security cooperation between Australia and the United States. The long-term security relationship between the two countries will generally develop closer, more important and more integrated, but this situation ultimately depends on the changes in the regional power structure and the trilateral relations between China, the United States and Australia, because, There are no real obstacles to security cooperation between the two countries, and there is considerable incentive to continue to strengthen security cooperation. At the same time, with the deepening of economic and trade dependence between Australia and the members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, the reduction of economic dependence on China may become an important long-term factor affecting Australia's foreign policy choices.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学国际关系学院;北京外国语大学太平洋研究中心;
【分类号】：D861.1;D871.2

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