论亚太大变局

发布时间：2018-06-26 10:40

本文选题：亚太秩序 + 多元复合结构　；参考：《世界经济与政治》2017年06期

【摘要】：近年来,亚太地区进入了以相关国家力量对比变化和地区战略调整为主要特征的格局大变革时期。作者从环境变化、力量变化、趋势变化和秩序变化四个方面分析这一格局变动。在环境变化方面,亚太地理范围的扩大和行为体的增加、行为体之间互动方式的变化,使得亚太格局呈现出越来越显著的"多元复合结构"特征。在力量变化方面,中美、中日力量对比的变化具有重要意义,值得注意的是:中国、日本从长期重视经济力量的作用转为愈来愈重视发挥安全力量的作用,而美国则从长期倚重安全牌转向更加重视经济牌。在趋势变化上,一方面,未来亚太地缘政治变化的关键取决于中美战略互动,而与中美战略冲突的可能性相比,中美走向战略妥协的可能性更大;另一方面,未来十年亚太地缘经济格局走向部分整合的可能性较高。就长期趋势来说,地缘政治变化将是温和的,而地缘经济演变将是强劲的,后者会更多地影响前者。在秩序变化方面,驱动亚太秩序演变的经济逻辑将进一步强化,霸权秩序的成分会进一步下降,秩序结构更加平面化,平等性上升,合作性增强,与地区格局的变化相适应,亚太秩序将呈现为多元复合的地区共同体形态。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the Asia-Pacific region has entered a period of great change characterized by changes in the relative national power balance and regional strategic adjustment. The author analyzes this pattern change from four aspects: environment change, force change, trend change and order change. In terms of environmental change, the enlargement of geographical scope and the increase of actors in Asia and the Pacific, and the change of interaction mode among actors, make the Asia-Pacific pattern more and more obvious "multiple complex structure" characteristics. In terms of changes in power, the changes in the balance of power between China, the United States, and China and Japan are of great significance. It is worth noting that China and Japan have shifted from a long-term emphasis on the role of economic power to a growing emphasis on the role of security forces. The United States has shifted from a long-term reliance on safety to a greater emphasis on the economy. In terms of trends, on the one hand, the key to future geopolitical changes in Asia and the Pacific depends on the strategic interaction between China and the United States, and compared with the possibility of strategic conflict between China and the United States, China and the United States are more likely to move towards strategic compromise; on the other hand, The possibility of partial integration of Asia-Pacific geo-economic pattern in the next decade is high. In terms of long-term trends, geopolitical change will be moderate, while geopolitical evolution will be strong, and the latter will affect the former more. In terms of order changes, the economic logic that drives the evolution of the Asia-Pacific order will be further strengthened, the elements of the hegemonic order will further decline, the structure of the order will become more flat, equality will rise, and cooperation will increase, which will be adapted to the changes in the regional pattern. The Asia-Pacific order will present itself as a pluralistic and complex regional community.
【作者单位】：复旦大学美国研究中心;
【基金】：笔者承担的国家社科基金重大项目“美国的亚太布局与我国的亚太方略研究”(项目批准号:12&ZD083)成果的一部分
【分类号】：D815

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