21世纪初中美在中亚地区的能源安全博弈

发布时间：2018-07-05 17:59

本文选题：中亚 + 中美能源　；参考：《南京师范大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：21世纪以来,随着能源需求的迅猛增长、国际油价的居高不下和国际能源形势的日益严峻,能源安全开始成为全球性的问题被世界各国所关注。围绕能源安全,世界各主要能源消费国尤其是中美两国,在能源主产区展开了激烈竞争。其中,中亚——作为21世纪的能源基地,凭借其丰富的能源资源和重要的地理位置成为世界各大力量争夺的热点地区。因此,本文以中亚地区为大背景,通过对中美两国的中亚能源安全战略分析来透视中美在中亚地区各自的利益诉求和战略考虑,以博弈论为起点,从结构现实主义、新自由制度主义的视角审视中美在中亚地区的能源安全博弈,并对中美在中亚地区乃至全球能源安全博弈的方向作出预测性的理论分析。透视中美在中亚地区的能源关系现状,中美双方具有矛盾和冲突的诸多障碍因素：中美两国之间互信缺失、相互猜忌,美国对于能源问题泛政治化,中美在中亚地区有着不同的利益诉求……这些矛盾和分歧使得中美两国在中亚地区的能源安全博弈可能会趋向于零和博弈。结构现实主义从学理上对此也作出了强有力的理论支撑。但是,我们同时应该看到,中美在中亚除了存在矛盾和分歧外,还存在广泛的共同利益：分享中亚天然气资源、避免两国发生能源冲突是两国的共同愿望；两国都希望以合理的价格稳定地安全地从中亚地区获得可靠的充足的能源供应；两国都致力于打击恐怖主义、维护中亚地区的和平稳定……这些共同点为实现中美在中亚地区的能源安全合作提供了极大的协调空间。不难看出,中美能源关系恰似两难。这致使双方能源合作既有机会,又困难重重。围绕能源安全展开的国家间竞争能否产生合作的机会,新自由制度主义合作论、能源博弈自主合作模型为中美两国开展能源合作提供了理论平台。事实上中美两国可以通过建立两国间的战略互信、以上海合作组织为平台建立多边合作机制等措施来避免对抗性、排他性的“零和”式博弈,走向“非零和”式竞争下的合作,实现各自能源安全的“双赢”局面。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, with the rapid growth of energy demand, high international oil prices and increasingly severe international energy situation, energy security has become a global problem. Around energy security, major energy consuming countries in the world, especially China and the United States, have launched fierce competition in the main energy producing areas. As an energy base in the 21st century, Central Asia, with its abundant energy resources and important geographical position, has become a hot spot in the world. Therefore, this paper takes Central Asia as the background, through the analysis of the Central Asian energy security strategy of China and the United States to perspective the interests and strategic considerations of China and the United States in Central Asia, starting from the game theory, from the structural realism. From the perspective of neo-liberal institutionalism, this paper examines the energy security game between China and the United States in Central Asia, and makes a predictive theoretical analysis of the direction of the energy security game between China and the United States in Central Asia and even in the whole world. Looking into the current energy relations between China and the United States in Central Asia, China and the United States have many obstacles to conflicts and contradictions: mutual trust between China and the United States, mutual distrust, and politicization of the energy issue in the United States. China and the United States have different interests in Central Asia. These contradictions and differences may make the energy security game between China and the United States in Central Asia tend to zero sum game. Structural realism has also made a strong theoretical support to this from a theoretical point of view. But at the same time, we should see that in addition to the contradictions and differences in Central Asia, China and the United States also have a wide range of common interests: sharing natural gas resources in Central Asia and avoiding energy conflicts between the two countries are the common aspirations of the two countries; Both countries hope to secure a reliable and adequate energy supply from Central Asia at reasonable prices and are committed to fighting terrorism and maintaining peace and stability in Central Asia. These common points provide a great space for coordination of energy security cooperation between China and the United States in Central Asia. It is not difficult to see that the energy relationship between China and the United States is a dilemma. This makes energy cooperation between the two sides both opportunities and difficulties. Whether the inter-state competition around energy security can produce the opportunity of cooperation, neo-liberal institutionalism cooperation theory, energy game independent cooperation model provides a theoretical platform for China and the United States to carry out energy cooperation. In fact, China and the United States can avoid antagonism and exclusive "zero-sum" game by building strategic mutual trust between the two countries and establishing a multilateral cooperation mechanism on the platform of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to move towards cooperation under the "non-zero sum" type of competition. To achieve their own energy security "win-win" situation.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D822.3;F416.2

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