乌克兰危机的一种解读——基于国家特征视角的分析
发布时间：2018-07-17 00:03
【摘要】：历史上,乌克兰曾经遭受不同帝国的长期占领,从而产生"双重被动控制"和"弹性边界"两个国家特征。苏联解体后,乌克兰开始表现出新的国家特征,"双重对外依赖"与"弹性认同"被不断强化。"颜色革命"之后,这两个特征的"敏感性"和"脆弱性"都显著增强,导致平衡型外交战略陷入"两难",一场深刻影响国际格局的乌克兰危机由此爆发。运用"双重对外依赖"曲线与"弹性认同"政治预算线构建起来的分析模型解释乌克兰危机,具有逻辑方面的优势,并且可以说明乌克兰这个国家存在着"三元悖论",即在"双重对外依赖"、"弹性认同"和"不成熟民主政治"之间,三者不能同时兼容,这一结论对于乌克兰未来走向的判断,具有重要的启示意义。
[Abstract]:Historically, Ukraine has been subjected to a long period of occupation by different empires, resulting in "double passive control" and "flexible borders". After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine began to show a new national identity, "double external dependence" and "elastic identity" are constantly strengthened. After the color revolution, the "sensitivity" and "fragility" of the two characteristics increased significantly, resulting in a dilemma for the balanced diplomatic strategy and the outbreak of a crisis in Ukraine, which had a profound impact on the international situation. Using the analysis model of "double external dependence" curve and "elastic identity" political budget line to explain Ukraine crisis, it has logical advantages. It can also be explained that Ukraine has a "ternary paradox", that is, between "dual external dependence", "flexible identity" and "immature democratic politics," the three cannot be compatible at the same time. This conclusion is a judgment on the future direction of Ukraine. It has important enlightening significance.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所;复旦大学俄罗斯中亚研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金“‘丝绸之路经济带'建设中合作与竞争的战略解析”(编号:14CGJ008) 中国博士后科学基金面上资助(编号:2015M570313)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：D815
[Abstract]:Historically, Ukraine has been subjected to a long period of occupation by different empires, resulting in "double passive control" and "flexible borders". After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine began to show a new national identity, "double external dependence" and "elastic identity" are constantly strengthened. After the color revolution, the "sensitivity" and "fragility" of the two characteristics increased significantly, resulting in a dilemma for the balanced diplomatic strategy and the outbreak of a crisis in Ukraine, which had a profound impact on the international situation. Using the analysis model of "double external dependence" curve and "elastic identity" political budget line to explain Ukraine crisis, it has logical advantages. It can also be explained that Ukraine has a "ternary paradox", that is, between "dual external dependence", "flexible identity" and "immature democratic politics," the three cannot be compatible at the same time. This conclusion is a judgment on the future direction of Ukraine. It has important enlightening significance.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所;复旦大学俄罗斯中亚研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金“‘丝绸之路经济带'建设中合作与竞争的战略解析”(编号:14CGJ008) 中国博士后科学基金面上资助(编号:2015M570313)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：D815
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