影响中俄“压舱石”作用的“变量”因素分析——以朝鲜半岛“矛”与“盾”战略博弈为视角

发布时间：2018-07-20 19:38

【摘要】：2016年以来,由于朝鲜半岛"朝核"和"萨德"这一"矛"与"盾"战略博弈的凸显,朝鲜半岛地缘政治的重要性和中俄"全面战略协作伙伴关系"备受国际社会关注,中俄已成为朝鲜半岛和东北亚地区和平稳定的"压舱石"。影响中俄"压舱石"作用的"变量"因素是确定性与不确定性并存,积极因素和消极因素同在,明确中俄在朝鲜半岛政策上的趋同性、对域外力量战略上的一致性、在国家利益发展上的互补性和与半岛国家间关系的不稳定性等"自变量"因素,以及美日韩关系巩固增强"压舱石"作用的紧迫性、半岛"矛""盾"博弈激化加深"压舱石"作用的必要性、与半岛国家间关系"激变"造成"压舱石"作用的波动性和域外力量带来"压舱石"作用的不确定性等"因变量"因素的影响,对中俄积极应对朝鲜半岛"矛""盾"博弈过程和有效发挥"压舱石"作用大有裨益。
[Abstract]:Since 2016, due to the salience of the strategic game between "Korean nuclear" and "THAAD" and "shield" on the Korean Peninsula, the importance of geopolitics on the Korean Peninsula and the "comprehensive strategic partnership" between China and Russia have attracted the attention of the international community. China and Russia have become the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia peace and stability of the "ballast stone." The "variable" factors that influence the action of "ballast stone" between China and Russia are the coexistence of certainty and uncertainty, the coexistence of positive factors and negative factors, the clear convergence of Chinese and Russian policy on the Korean Peninsula, and the consistency of the strategy of extra-territorial forces. Complementarities in the development of national interests and factors such as "independent variables" such as instability in relations with the countries of the peninsula, and the urgency of consolidating and enhancing the role of "ballast stones" in US-Japan-ROK relations, The necessity of intensifying the game of "spear" and "shield" on the peninsula to deepen the role of "ballast stone", The influence of "dependent variables" such as the volatility of ballast action caused by the "upheaval" in the relations with the peninsula countries and the uncertainty of the "ballast" action brought about by the extraterritorial forces, It is of great benefit to China and Russia to deal with the game process of "spear" and "shield" on the Korean Peninsula and to play the role of ballast stone effectively.
【作者单位】：延边大学政治与公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(16BGJ035) 教育部人文社科重点研究基地项目(15JJDZOXGHE034)
【分类号】：D822.351.2;D831.2

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