基于AHP-变异系数法的越占南沙岛礁战略价值评价

发布时间：2018-07-21 13:52

【摘要】：选取南沙海域被越南非法侵占的29个岛礁的法律地位、军事基地潜力、水域通达性、岛礁资源价值、陆地联系紧密度与区域战略潜力等主要因素构建指标体系,采用主客观综合赋权的方法——层次分析法(AHP,Analytic Hierarchy Process)-变异系数法,定量评价越南侵占的我国南沙岛礁战略价值。研究结果表明:(1)越占岛礁价值最高的为南子岛,其次是南威岛,目前越南对其开发程度均较高;(2)战略价值较高的鸿庥岛、景宏岛等岛礁离我国控制的部分南沙岛礁距离较近,对我国战略防御构成威胁。另外西礁战略价值较高,已成为南沙旅游开发景点之一;(3)战略价值较低的金盾暗沙、奥南暗沙等目前受自身开发条件限制较大,但蕴藏着极大的油气潜力。以上越占岛礁战略价值分析结果,将为维护我国固有领土完整,为解决中越南沙争端提供支持。
[Abstract]:Selecting the legal status of 29 islands and reefs illegally occupied by Vietnam, the potential of military bases, the accessibility of waters, the resource value of islands and reefs, the tightness of land connection and the regional strategic potential, etc. The method of subjective and objective comprehensive empowerment, Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and coefficient of variation (CV), was used to evaluate quantitatively the strategic value of Vietnamese occupation of Nansha Islands and reefs in China. The results show that: (1) Nanzi Island is the most valuable island in Vietnam, followed by Nanwei Island, which is developed to a higher degree in Vietnam; (2) Hongxiu Island and Jinghong Island, which are of high strategic value, are close to some of the Nansha Islands and reefs controlled by China. It poses a threat to our country's strategic defense. In addition, the strategic value of the West Reef is high and has become one of the scenic spots in Nansha tourism development; (3) the low strategic value of the golden shield dark sand and the Ornan dark sand are limited by their own development conditions at present, but there is a great potential for oil and gas. The analysis of the strategic value of Vietnamese islands and reefs will support the maintenance of China's inherent territorial integrity and the settlement of the Sino-Vietnamese sand dispute.
【作者单位】：南京大学江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室;南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心;南京大学地理信息科学系;江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家高技术研究发展计划课题(2012AA12A406)
【分类号】：P74;D823

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