气候治理中的大国博弈及其对世界经济格局的影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-09 16:11

【摘要】：气候变化问题是当今世界各国最为关注的热点问题之一。经过30余年的发展这个问题早已从单纯的环境问题上升到了世界政治世界经济的高度,其牵涉国家之多,影响范围之广,是其他任何国际问题都无法比拟的,甚至可以说它还可能是一个关系到人类文明兴衰存亡的问题。关于气候变化问题,哪怕其中任何-个旁枝末节,都是一个庞大的课题。本文的研究针对于世界大国在寻求气候变化治理中的博弈行为,以及大国博弈对世界经济格局的影响。首先本文从生产力的角度将气候变化影响下产生的低碳革命与历史上的三次科技革命进行了对比研究,形成了以下观点： ①气候变化导致传统生产力发展受到阻碍,若要实现生产力的发展就必须发展低碳生产力。低碳生产力在生产力发展史上具有革命性的意义； ②低碳生产力的发展,将带来一系列革命性的科技成果,其影响不下于其他三次科技革命； ③以往的科技革命无一例外都带来了世界经济格局的改变,因而我国应当抓住低碳革命的机会,提升我国未来的国际政治经济地位。之后本文回顾了气候治理的历程,并用博弈论的分析方法,在囚徒困境、智猪博弈、斗鸡博弈三个博弈图式下,分析了气候治理中各大国间的分歧。本文认为： ①目前气候治理的囚徒困境并不是不可打破的,关键是要建立一套权威的监督机制； ②气候谈判“共同但有区别的责任”的原则,是解决气候变化的最优原则,是气候谈判中应该坚持的； ③气候谈判中的南北矛盾导致谈判进展缓慢,但事实上任何一方的让步都能使谈判获得更多有实质的进展。本文第三部分分析了气候问题大国博弈对世界经济格局的影响,如碳金融的迅猛发展、碳税在全球范围的广泛征收以及气候博弈中中美欧的三足鼎立等。当然,气候变化对世界经济格局的影响还远不止于此。这更说明我们应该重视气候变化,以藉此影响世界经济的发展方向,使之朝有利于我国的方向发展。最后本文针对气候变化博弈的基本立场、谈判平台的选择、低碳经济的建设提出了一些建议。认为： ①基于“发展权”的谈判立场与我国在气候治理中的积极作为不匹配。树立“可持续的发展权”的观念,能使我国的合理发展得到国际社会充分的理解。 ②我国应当坚持以COP平台为主,以欧美主导的其他平台为辅,积极参加气候谈判。在气候谈判欧美主导权的争夺上,偏向欧盟更有利于我国,也有利于气候治理的实现。 ③国内低碳经济建设是我国参加气候谈判的最大后盾,我国应以自有碳交易市场为基础,建设我国的碳金融市场；应加强法律和社会监督,形成广泛的低碳意识；应重视对国有企业外其他类型企业特别是民营企业减排行动的激励；应加快碳税的制定与实施进度。
[Abstract]:Climate change is one of the hottest issues in the world. After more than 30 years of development, the problem has already risen from a simple environmental problem to the height of world politics and world economy. It involves so many countries and has a wide range of influence that it is incomparable to any other international problem. It may even be a matter of the rise and fall of human civilization. The issue of climate change, if any, is a huge issue. This paper focuses on the game behavior of the world's great powers in seeking the governance of climate change, and the influence of the great power game on the world economic pattern. Firstly, this paper makes a comparative study between the low-carbon revolution under the influence of climate change and the three historical scientific and technological revolutions from the perspective of productivity. The following viewpoints are formed: 1 the development of traditional productivity is hindered by climate change. If you want to achieve the development of productivity, we must develop low-carbon productivity. The development of low carbon productivity will bring a series of revolutionary scientific and technological achievements, and its influence will not be less than the other three scientific and technological revolutions, and the development of low-carbon productivity will bring about a series of revolutionary scientific and technological achievements. The past scientific and technological revolution without exception has brought about the change of the world economic pattern, so our country should seize the opportunity of low-carbon revolution and promote our country's future international political and economic status. Then this paper reviews the course of climate governance and analyzes the differences between the big countries in climate governance under three game schemas: prisoner's dilemma intelligent pig game and cockfight game using the method of game theory. This paper holds that: (1) the prisoner's dilemma of climate governance is not unbreakable, the key is to establish an authoritative supervisory mechanism, and (2) the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" in climate negotiations, It is the best principle to solve climate change and should be adhered to in the climate negotiations. 3 the North-South contradiction in climate negotiations leads to the slow progress of the negotiations, but in fact the concessions of either side can lead to more substantial progress in the negotiations. The third part of this paper analyzes the influence of the climate problem big country game on the world economic pattern, such as the rapid development of carbon finance, the widespread collection of carbon tax in the global scope, and the triple stand between the United States and Europe in the climate game. Of course, the impact of climate change on the world economic landscape is much more than that. This shows that we should pay more attention to climate change in order to influence the development direction of the world economy and make it more favorable to our country. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the basic position of climate change game, the choice of negotiation platform and the construction of low carbon economy. It is concluded that: 1 the negotiating position based on the "right to development" does not match China's active action in climate governance. To establish the concept of "sustainable development right" can make the reasonable development of our country fully understood by the international community.2 our country should insist on the COP platform as the main platform and other platforms dominated by Europe and the United States as the supplement, and take an active part in the climate negotiations. In the scramble for the leading power of Europe and the United States in climate negotiations, favouring the European Union is more beneficial to China and also conducive to the realization of climate government.3 domestic low-carbon economic construction is the biggest backing for China's participation in climate negotiations. We should build our carbon finance market on the basis of our own carbon trading market, strengthen the legal and social supervision, form a wide sense of low carbon, pay attention to the incentives for other types of enterprises outside the state-owned enterprises, especially private enterprises, to reduce emissions. The development and implementation of carbon tax should be accelerated.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815;X2;F113

【参考文献】