两次“因提法达”对以色列联合政府决策影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-12 08:10

【摘要】：1987年和2000年两次“因提法达”造成了巴以双方重大的人员伤亡,不仅如此,两次“因提法达”的爆发还对以色列联合政府决策产生重要的影响。本文通过运用历史比较研究法,比较阐述了两次“因提法达”对不同时期以色列联合政府的选举和政策产生了重要影响。“因提法达”是具有双重性的社会运动,既是以色列阿拉伯人为了影响政府决策而发动的社会运动,又是巴勒斯坦被占领土民众争取民族解放和国家独立的政治运动。作为“巴勒斯坦大起义”的一部分,两次“因提法达”在爆发时间和过程、爆发原因、目的和领导的巴勒斯坦权威机构以及伤亡程度和结束时间各有不同。这也是导致其对不同时期以色列联合政府影响不同的基础和条件。受两次“因提法达”的影响,以色列联合政府在选举和政策方面产生了不同的结果。本文的亮点和创新之处在于,根据第一次“因提法达”和第二次“因提法达”爆发的时间与发展过程,通过1988年、1992年、2001年和2003年的政府选举数据分析,比较得出两次“因提法达”对以色列联合政府的不同影响及原因。结果,从长远看,第一次“因提法达”促使以色列联合政府的政治立场趋于“鸽派”,而第二次“因提法达”则导致以色列联合政府的政治立场趋于“鹰派”。第一次“因提法达”导致沙米尔政府决策困难,主要表现在意见分歧、个性冲突和权力竞争等三个方面。“巴以冲突”问题是拉宾思想及其立场的重要组成部分。拉宾政府的基本决策是坚持推进和平进程,同巴解签署了巴勒斯坦实现初步自治的《奥斯陆协议》。“因提法达”的爆发促使对巴勒斯坦不满的以色列民众将沙龙推上了总理的职位。组阁后的沙龙政府植根于右翼势力的意识形态中,也没有推进和平的意愿与能力。近年来以色列以内塔尼亚胡为领袖的利库德集团作为主要右翼政党领导政府。以色列目前面临的处境和挑战使以色列政治继续“向右转”,最终导致以色列政府的政治趋向呈右翼化。巴以冲突纷繁复杂,如何“对症下药”和平解决巴以问题,需要我们进一步地思考和研究。
[Abstract]:In 1987 and 2000, two "Intifada" caused serious casualties between Palestine and Israel. Moreover, the two "Intifada" outbreaks also had an important impact on the decision-making of the Israeli coalition government. The elections and policies of the government have had an important impact. "Tifada" is a dual social movement, a social movement launched by Israeli Arabs to influence government decision-making, and a political movement for national liberation and national independence by the people of the Occupied Palestinian Territory as part of the "Great Palestinian Uprising" The two "Tiffada" outbreaks occurred at different times and in different stages. The two "Tiffada" outbreaks had different causes, purposes and leadership of the Palestinian Authority, as well as the degree of casualties and the end of the time. This also led to different basis and conditions for their impact on the Israeli coalition government at different times. The highlight and innovation of this paper is that, according to the time and development process of the first and second Intifada outbreaks, through the analysis of government election data in 1988, 1992, 2001 and 2003, the two Intifadas against the League of Israel are compared. As a result, in the long run, the political position of the coalition government of Israel tends to be "dove" for the first time, while the political position of the coalition government of Israel tends to be "hawk" for the second time. The issue of the "Palestinian-Israeli conflict" is an important part of Rabin's thought and position. The basic decision of the Rabin government is to persist in promoting the peace process and sign the Oslo Agreement with PLO to realize Palestinian preliminary autonomy. Sharon's government is rooted in the ideology of the right-wing forces and has no will or ability to advance peace. In recent years, the Likud group, led by Netanyahu, has led the government as the main right-wing party. The present situation and challenges make Israeli politics continue to turn to the right, which eventually leads to the right-wing political trend of the Israeli government.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D815.4

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