朝核问题中的博弈
发布时间：2018-08-19 11:50
【摘要】：朝核问题一直以来都不是一个孤立的地区问题或者单一的核问题。它不仅困扰着东北亚地区的安全,还影响着全球的战略布局。朝鲜半岛地区是冷战时期意识形态对立的最后阵地,是美国敌视朝鲜政权、遏制中国崛起、防范俄罗斯的前沿地区。美国一直将意识形态与其对立的朝鲜视为“邪恶轴心国”、“无赖国家”,而朝鲜又渴望实现朝美、朝日关系正常化。朝核问题就是在这样的背景下产生的,它是朝鲜一厢情愿地实现朝美和解的手段。 然而从朝核问题产生之目起,就注定朝核问题不是朝美两国的双边问题,它涉及到的问题和因素错综复杂。它不仅扰乱了东北亚地区的和平与稳定,还犯了美国维持全球核平衡的大忌,朝鲜半岛无核化才‘符合美国和东北亚各国的利益,而朝美之问山于根深蒂固的不信任,使得朝核问题不得不在六方会谈的多边机制下解决。参加六方会谈的中、美、俄、日、韩、朝六国既有实现朝鲜半岛无核化的共同利益,也有六方各自的特殊利益。朝鲜的目的在于实现美日邦交正常；韩国和日本为了维护国家的安全和稳定；美国则为了维护东北亚的霸主地位及其建立的核不扩散体系；中国出于地缘政治原因考虑,不得不维护朝鲜政权的独立性；俄罗斯则为了实现其在东北亚的利益。正是这种共同利益促使了六方的合作,也因六方各自的特殊利益使得六方会谈进行举步维艰。在这种看似复杂的利益关系中,有存在着利益的微妙均衡,即美日韩同盟对抗中俄朝三国。从第一轮六方会淡开始到第六轮六方会谈结束,六方虽然在朝核问题上达成了一些共识,签署主席声明,但并没有取得实质性进展。 直到今天,朝核问题依然没有得到解决,符方重返六方会谈依然遥遥无期。朝核问题的未来走向至少有三种可能性：第一种可能性是朝核问题被无限期地拖延下去,第二种可能性是美国通过采取“先发制人”的军事战略,第三种可能性是在六方会谈机制下和平解决朝核问题。最后一种可能是人们的美好愿望,在利益驱动下很难说这种美好愿望是惟一的未来最想。
[Abstract]:The North Korean nuclear issue has not been an isolated regional issue or a single nuclear issue. It not only puzzles the security of Northeast Asia, but also affects the global strategic layout. The Korean Peninsula is the last position of ideological antagonism during the Cold War. It is the frontier region of the United States hostile to the Korean regime, containing the rise of China and guarding against Russia. The United States has always regarded North Korea as an "axis of evil" and a "rogue country", and North Korea is eager to normalize relations between North Korea and Japan. It is against this background that the North Korean nuclear issue is a wishful approach to reconciliation between North Korea and the United States. However, from the beginning of the North Korean nuclear issue, it is doomed that the North Korean nuclear issue is not a bilateral issue between the DPRK and the United States, and that it involves complicated issues and factors. It not only disturbs the peace and stability in Northeast Asia, but also violates the United States' great taboo of maintaining global nuclear balance. The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is in the interests of the United States and the Northeast Asian countries, and the question of the DPRK and the United States is rooted in deep-rooted mistrust. So that the North Korean nuclear issue has to be resolved under the six-party talks under the multilateral mechanism. China, the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and the six countries participating in the Six-Party talks have both the common interests of realizing the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the special interests of each of the six parties. The aim of the DPRK is to achieve normal diplomatic relations between the United States and Japan; South Korea and Japan are to safeguard national security and stability; the United States is to safeguard the hegemony of Northeast Asia and its nuclear non-proliferation system; and China is considering it for geopolitical reasons. The independence of the North Korean regime had to be preserved; Russia was seeking its interests in Northeast Asia. It is this common interest that drives the six-party cooperation and their special interests make it difficult for the six-party talks to proceed. In this seemingly complex relationship of interests, there is a delicate balance of interests, that is, the alliance of America, Japan and South Korea against China, Russia and North Korea. From the beginning of the first round of six-party talks to the end of the sixth round of six-party talks, although the six parties reached some consensus on the North Korean nuclear issue and signed a presidential statement, no substantial progress was made. To this day, the North Korean nuclear issue remains unresolved, and the return of the Runner to the six-Party talks remains elusive. There are at least three possibilities for the future direction of the North Korean nuclear issue: the first possibility is that the North Korean nuclear issue has been postponed indefinitely, and the second possibility is that the United States has adopted a "pre-emptive" military strategy. The third possibility is a peaceful settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue under the six-Party talks. The last possibility is a desire, driven by interest, that is the only wish for the future.
【学位授予单位】：中国政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815.2
本文编号：2191574
[Abstract]:The North Korean nuclear issue has not been an isolated regional issue or a single nuclear issue. It not only puzzles the security of Northeast Asia, but also affects the global strategic layout. The Korean Peninsula is the last position of ideological antagonism during the Cold War. It is the frontier region of the United States hostile to the Korean regime, containing the rise of China and guarding against Russia. The United States has always regarded North Korea as an "axis of evil" and a "rogue country", and North Korea is eager to normalize relations between North Korea and Japan. It is against this background that the North Korean nuclear issue is a wishful approach to reconciliation between North Korea and the United States. However, from the beginning of the North Korean nuclear issue, it is doomed that the North Korean nuclear issue is not a bilateral issue between the DPRK and the United States, and that it involves complicated issues and factors. It not only disturbs the peace and stability in Northeast Asia, but also violates the United States' great taboo of maintaining global nuclear balance. The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is in the interests of the United States and the Northeast Asian countries, and the question of the DPRK and the United States is rooted in deep-rooted mistrust. So that the North Korean nuclear issue has to be resolved under the six-party talks under the multilateral mechanism. China, the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and the six countries participating in the Six-Party talks have both the common interests of realizing the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the special interests of each of the six parties. The aim of the DPRK is to achieve normal diplomatic relations between the United States and Japan; South Korea and Japan are to safeguard national security and stability; the United States is to safeguard the hegemony of Northeast Asia and its nuclear non-proliferation system; and China is considering it for geopolitical reasons. The independence of the North Korean regime had to be preserved; Russia was seeking its interests in Northeast Asia. It is this common interest that drives the six-party cooperation and their special interests make it difficult for the six-party talks to proceed. In this seemingly complex relationship of interests, there is a delicate balance of interests, that is, the alliance of America, Japan and South Korea against China, Russia and North Korea. From the beginning of the first round of six-party talks to the end of the sixth round of six-party talks, although the six parties reached some consensus on the North Korean nuclear issue and signed a presidential statement, no substantial progress was made. To this day, the North Korean nuclear issue remains unresolved, and the return of the Runner to the six-Party talks remains elusive. There are at least three possibilities for the future direction of the North Korean nuclear issue: the first possibility is that the North Korean nuclear issue has been postponed indefinitely, and the second possibility is that the United States has adopted a "pre-emptive" military strategy. The third possibility is a peaceful settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue under the six-Party talks. The last possibility is a desire, driven by interest, that is the only wish for the future.
【学位授予单位】：中国政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815.2
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 仇发华;中国在朝鲜核问题上的作用及其受局限的原因分析[J];东北亚论坛;2005年02期
2 李熙玉;韩国的视角:韩美关系、东北亚均衡者以及六方会谈[J];当代韩国;2005年03期
3 姜宅九;;中国参与六方会谈:斡旋角色与前景[J];当代亚太;2007年02期
4 倪保志;冷战后国际格局的两重性[J];当代世界社会主义问题;2001年03期
5 李南周,肖伟山;朝核问题的发展与东北亚的和平[J];读书;2003年11期
6 鲁义;;朝核问题与六方会谈[J];国际关系学院学报;2006年01期
7 姜宅九;;中国地区多边安全合作的动因[J];国际政治科学;2006年01期
8 朱锋;六方会谈:“朝核问题”还是“朝鲜问题”?[J];国际政治研究;2005年03期
9 蔡永铉;“朝鲜问题”与19世纪后期东北亚国际关系[J];吉林大学社会科学学报;1993年04期
10 苗萌;;试析六方会谈各方在朝核问题上的考虑及所扮演的角色[J];理论观察;2008年01期
，本文编号：2191574
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/shekelunwen/waijiao/2191574.html
