威慑有效性研究：不同类型比较
发布时间：2018-08-20 18:52
【摘要】：本文的主要脉络是从理论分析到案例检测。从理论分析中总结一些具体的规律,再使用案例加以检测。研究的理论问题是国际关系中威慑的有效性,具体研究对象是影响不同类型威慑实现的因素。威慑战略是冷战开始后大国国家安全战略的核心,对当时国际格局的维持与变动发挥决定性作用；冷战结束后,威慑战略的核心地位有所动摇,但依然是大国战略的基石之一。鉴于威慑战略的重要性,威慑战略背后的理论建构成为国际关系研究中的显学。威慑理论是对威慑概念进行界定和运行规律进行总结的理论。在威慑理论研究中,对如何实现有效威慑的研究是重点之一。本文的主旨是,通过对已有理论研究成果的学习,在深入剖析、掌握威慑概念的基础上,对先贤们在威慑有效性方面的研究成果加以梳理；通过梳理已有的研究路径,了解影响威慑有效性的诸多因素,并探讨这些因素在国际关系现状中新的应用,希望能在威慑理论这一宏伟的建筑上添砖加瓦。国际关系中的威慑,是指威慑方以强制力为后盾威胁被威慑方,使之感到得不偿失而被迫中止先前的意图。对威慑有效性研究的主要路径包括强理性主义路径、认知理性主义路径和建构-诠释路径,研究层次则包括超国家、国家以及亚国家层次。本文采用认知理性路径,通过理论分析——案例检验方法,得出如下结论：威慑实力是威慑有效性的基础。基于核武器与常规武器截然不同的物理效用,核威慑与常规威慑具有不同的威慑有效性。其有效性差异的根本原因在于两类威慑实力的计算标准不同、影响因素不同、影响因素作用的效果也不同。能够影响核威慑实力可信度的主要因素是国家经济技术水平、国家核战略、新防御技术和核武器效用逆序效应,而影响常规威慑可信度的是现役军事实力对比、特定战术运用和同盟变化。在目前的技术条件下,核威慑对上述影响因素的变化并不十分敏感。相比核威慑,常规威慑效力对相对军事实力变化、战术对比和同盟的变化更为敏感；这些因素的变化会直接影响到常规威慑的效力。在威慑的意志可信度方面,威慑意志的缺失和表达不充分是最常见的问题。造成意志不足现象的基本原因相同,包括利益佯谬、自我威慑效应和廉价信号。这些不利因素可以通过威慑互动双方的交流学习、部分依赖于偶然性策略和昂贵信号的释放等加以克服。在威慑信息的传达方面,信息的传递渠道和被威慑方对信息的知觉是关键。信息传递渠道的不可靠和被威慑方对信息的错误知觉都会影响威慑信息的传达,造成威慑效力的变化。反扩散是美国在冷战结束后的国家安全战略基石,反映出美国的绝对安全观。反扩散威慑是美国反扩散战略的具体手段之一。在叙利亚化武危机中,在美国做好充分的军事准备和舆论准备、并表达出坚定打击决心的情况下,叙利亚政府被迫放弃保存／使用化学武器,并最终作出全部销毁化学武器的决定。叙利亚放弃化学武器这一事实,从客观上达到了反扩散威慑的效果。美国在叙利亚化学武器问题上反扩散威慑的成功,来源于对威慑有效性要素的把握。基于这些研究成果,本文提出如下政策建议：核威慑在国家安全战略中的核心地位无法动摇；在战略或政策制定中,以常规手段实现威慑目标必须更为审慎,且必须考虑常规威慑失败后的预备方案；加强国家间相互交流和学习,对威慑意志的表达和信息的传递都有正面效用。
[Abstract]:The main thread of this paper is from theoretical analysis to case detection. Some specific laws are summarized from theoretical analysis and then tested by case studies. The theoretical issue of the study is the effectiveness of deterrence in international relations. The specific object of study is the factors influencing the realization of different types of deterrence. The core of the strategy is to play a decisive role in maintaining and changing the international situation at that time. After the cold war, the core position of the deterrence strategy has been shaken, but it is still one of the cornerstones of the strategy of the great powers. In the study of deterrence theory, how to achieve effective deterrence is one of the key points. The main purpose of this paper is to study the existing theoretical research results, in-depth analysis, grasp the concept of deterrence on the basis of the predecessors in the deterrence effectiveness research results. Combing; through combing the existing research paths, understand the factors affecting the effectiveness of deterrence, and explore the new application of these factors in the status quo of international relations, hoping to add to the magnificent building of deterrence theory. The main paths of deterrence effectiveness research include the strong rationalism path, the cognitive rationalism path and the Construction-Interpretation path, and the research level includes the supranational, the national and the sub-national level. The conclusion is that deterrence power is the basis of deterrence effectiveness. Based on the different physical effects of nuclear weapons and conventional weapons, nuclear deterrence and conventional deterrence have different deterrence effectiveness. The main factors influencing the credibility of nuclear deterrence are the national economic and technological level, the national nuclear strategy, the new defense technology and the reverse effect of nuclear weapon effectiveness. The factors influencing the credibility of conventional deterrence are the contrast of military strength in service, the use of specific tactics and the change of alliances. Compared with nuclear deterrence, conventional deterrence effectiveness is more sensitive to changes in relative military strength, tactical contrast and alliance changes; changes in these factors will directly affect the effectiveness of conventional deterrence. The basic reasons for the lack of ambition are the same, including interest paradox, self-deterrence effect and low-cost signals. These disadvantages can be overcome by deterring the interaction between the two sides, partly relying on contingency strategies and the release of expensive signals. Uncertainty in the channel of information transmission and the false perception of information by the deterred party will affect the transmission of deterrent information and cause changes in deterrent effectiveness.Anti-proliferation is the cornerstone of the national security strategy of the United States after the cold war, reflecting the absolute security concept of the United States.Anti-proliferation deterrence is the concrete part of the United States anti-proliferation strategy. One of the means. In the Syrian chemical weapons crisis, the Syrian government was forced to abandon the preservation/use of chemical weapons and eventually to make a decision to destroy all chemical weapons when the United States was fully prepared for military and public opinion and expressed its firm determination to strike. The fact that Syria abandoned chemical weapons objectively achieved this. Based on these research results, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: nuclear deterrence in the core of national security strategy can not be shaken; in strategy or policy formulation, conventional means should be used. The realization of deterrence objectives must be more prudent and consideration must be given to the preparatory plan for failure of conventional deterrence. Enhanced exchanges and learning among countries have positive effects on the expression of deterrence will and the transmission of information.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D815.2
本文编号：2194658
[Abstract]:The main thread of this paper is from theoretical analysis to case detection. Some specific laws are summarized from theoretical analysis and then tested by case studies. The theoretical issue of the study is the effectiveness of deterrence in international relations. The specific object of study is the factors influencing the realization of different types of deterrence. The core of the strategy is to play a decisive role in maintaining and changing the international situation at that time. After the cold war, the core position of the deterrence strategy has been shaken, but it is still one of the cornerstones of the strategy of the great powers. In the study of deterrence theory, how to achieve effective deterrence is one of the key points. The main purpose of this paper is to study the existing theoretical research results, in-depth analysis, grasp the concept of deterrence on the basis of the predecessors in the deterrence effectiveness research results. Combing; through combing the existing research paths, understand the factors affecting the effectiveness of deterrence, and explore the new application of these factors in the status quo of international relations, hoping to add to the magnificent building of deterrence theory. The main paths of deterrence effectiveness research include the strong rationalism path, the cognitive rationalism path and the Construction-Interpretation path, and the research level includes the supranational, the national and the sub-national level. The conclusion is that deterrence power is the basis of deterrence effectiveness. Based on the different physical effects of nuclear weapons and conventional weapons, nuclear deterrence and conventional deterrence have different deterrence effectiveness. The main factors influencing the credibility of nuclear deterrence are the national economic and technological level, the national nuclear strategy, the new defense technology and the reverse effect of nuclear weapon effectiveness. The factors influencing the credibility of conventional deterrence are the contrast of military strength in service, the use of specific tactics and the change of alliances. Compared with nuclear deterrence, conventional deterrence effectiveness is more sensitive to changes in relative military strength, tactical contrast and alliance changes; changes in these factors will directly affect the effectiveness of conventional deterrence. The basic reasons for the lack of ambition are the same, including interest paradox, self-deterrence effect and low-cost signals. These disadvantages can be overcome by deterring the interaction between the two sides, partly relying on contingency strategies and the release of expensive signals. Uncertainty in the channel of information transmission and the false perception of information by the deterred party will affect the transmission of deterrent information and cause changes in deterrent effectiveness.Anti-proliferation is the cornerstone of the national security strategy of the United States after the cold war, reflecting the absolute security concept of the United States.Anti-proliferation deterrence is the concrete part of the United States anti-proliferation strategy. One of the means. In the Syrian chemical weapons crisis, the Syrian government was forced to abandon the preservation/use of chemical weapons and eventually to make a decision to destroy all chemical weapons when the United States was fully prepared for military and public opinion and expressed its firm determination to strike. The fact that Syria abandoned chemical weapons objectively achieved this. Based on these research results, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: nuclear deterrence in the core of national security strategy can not be shaken; in strategy or policy formulation, conventional means should be used. The realization of deterrence objectives must be more prudent and consideration must be given to the preparatory plan for failure of conventional deterrence. Enhanced exchanges and learning among countries have positive effects on the expression of deterrence will and the transmission of information.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：D815.2
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 王宏纬;1962年边界战争及其对中印关系的影响[J];南亚研究;2002年02期
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