美国反恐重心东移及其对中国的影响
发布时间：2018-09-09 20:27
【摘要】： 奥巴马上台后制定了针对阿富汗和巴基斯坦的“阿富巴”反恐新战略,对美国的反恐战略作出了战略性的调整。新战略有几个鲜明的特点:一、改变过去过度依赖军事打击的做法,加强对阿富汗的民事援助,发展阿富汗的武装力量;二、整合阿富汗和巴基斯坦,由美国牵头进行反恐;三、降低反恐目标,由促进阿富汗民主化改为实现阿富汗和巴基斯坦的安全,对温和塔利班的采取招抚政策,试图分化塔利班,显得更为务实;四、运用巧实力,注重多边外交的作用,强调其北约盟国和中国、俄罗斯、伊朗、印度等大国的作用。美国反恐新战略找到了反恐的症结所在。然而,美国面临着恐怖与反恐怖对峙加剧,阿富汗政府腐败无能,巴基斯坦政府无力推动反恐,国际社会不支持等一系列困境,反恐前途未卜。 美国反恐重心东移,其首要目的确实是打击阿富汗和巴基斯坦的基地组织和其支持者塔利班。美国在欧亚地缘政治的核心地带强化其军事存在和政治影响,可轻易地向中亚和南亚扩展自己的影响力,北上可围堵俄罗斯,东进可遏制中国,西进则可威慑其中东死对头伊朗,这必然会引起中亚和南亚大国博弈的加剧。美国反恐重心东移,势必会对中国在南亚和中亚的经济和能源利益带来不可预知的影响,关系到中国西部的国家安全。中国的地缘政治空间将受到压缩,与巴基斯坦的战略关系也将充满变数。美国成功整合阿富汗和巴基斯坦,对整合中亚和南亚的大中亚计划将起到关键作用,届时,美国将对中国形成圆形的包围圈,中国未来的发展就会受到美国的牵制。 中国应积极参与阿富汗的重建,增加对阿富汗的经济和技术援助,加强与阿富汗政府在反恐、打击毒品走私和有组织犯罪等方面的合作,帮助阿富汗尽早实现“阿人治阿”;加强与巴基斯坦的关系,通过大力发展经贸关系巩固两国的深厚友谊;推动上合组织发挥解决阿富汗和巴基斯坦问题上的建设性作用,加强与俄罗斯的战略合作关系;加大西部大开发的力度,缩小东西部发展的鸿沟,促进少数民族地区的经济发展,加强少数民族的国家认同感,加大对三股恶势力的打击力度,确保西北地区的政治稳定;妥善处理好大国关系,为中国营造一个安全、稳定的西部周边环境。
[Abstract]:After Obama took office, he formulated a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and made a strategic adjustment to the United States' counter-terrorism strategy. The new strategy has several distinct features: first, to change the past practice of over-reliance on military strikes, to strengthen civilian assistance to Afghanistan and to develop Afghan armed forces; and second, to integrate Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the United States taking the lead in counter-terrorism; Third, it is more pragmatic to lower the target of countering terrorism, to change from promoting democratization in Afghanistan to achieving security in Afghanistan and Pakistan, to adopt a policy of caressing the moderate Taliban, and to try to divide the Taliban; fourthly, to use skillful power. Focus on the role of multilateral diplomacy, emphasizing its NATO allies and the role of China, Russia, Iran, India and other major countries. The new anti-terrorism strategy of the United States has found the crux of the fight against terrorism. However, the United States faces a series of difficulties, such as intensifying confrontation between terror and anti-terror, corruption and incompetence of the Afghan government, the inability of the Pakistani government to promote counter-terrorism, and the lack of support from the international community. The future of the fight against terrorism is uncertain. America's focus on counterterrorism has shifted eastward, and its primary aim is indeed to fight al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan and its backers, the Taliban. By strengthening its military presence and political influence in the heart of Eurasian geopolitics, the United States can easily expand its influence in Central and South Asia. A westward advance would deter Iran, a rival in the Middle East, which would inevitably intensify the game between the big powers of Central and South Asia. The eastward shift of the U.S. counterterrorism focus will inevitably have an unpredictable impact on China's economic and energy interests in South and Central Asia, and will have a bearing on the national security of western China. China's geopolitical space will be compressed, and its strategic relationship with Pakistan will be fraught with uncertainty. The successful integration of Afghanistan and Pakistan will play a key role in the integration of Central Asia and South Asia, when the United States will form a circle of China, China's future development will be constrained by the United States. China should actively participate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, increase its economic and technical assistance to Afghanistan, strengthen its cooperation with the Afghan Government in the areas of anti-terrorism, drug smuggling and organized crime, and help Afghanistan realize "people ruling Afghanistan" as soon as possible; Strengthening relations with Pakistan, consolidating the deep friendship between the two countries through vigorously developing economic and trade relations, promoting the SCO to play a constructive role in resolving the problems between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and strengthening strategic cooperative relations with Russia; Strengthen the development of the west, narrow the gap between the east and the west, promote the economic development of the minority areas, strengthen the national identity of the ethnic minorities, intensify the crackdown on the three evil forces, and ensure the political stability of the northwest region; Properly handle major-power relations and create a secure and stable surrounding environment for China's western region.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D871.2
本文编号：2233481
[Abstract]:After Obama took office, he formulated a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and made a strategic adjustment to the United States' counter-terrorism strategy. The new strategy has several distinct features: first, to change the past practice of over-reliance on military strikes, to strengthen civilian assistance to Afghanistan and to develop Afghan armed forces; and second, to integrate Afghanistan and Pakistan, with the United States taking the lead in counter-terrorism; Third, it is more pragmatic to lower the target of countering terrorism, to change from promoting democratization in Afghanistan to achieving security in Afghanistan and Pakistan, to adopt a policy of caressing the moderate Taliban, and to try to divide the Taliban; fourthly, to use skillful power. Focus on the role of multilateral diplomacy, emphasizing its NATO allies and the role of China, Russia, Iran, India and other major countries. The new anti-terrorism strategy of the United States has found the crux of the fight against terrorism. However, the United States faces a series of difficulties, such as intensifying confrontation between terror and anti-terror, corruption and incompetence of the Afghan government, the inability of the Pakistani government to promote counter-terrorism, and the lack of support from the international community. The future of the fight against terrorism is uncertain. America's focus on counterterrorism has shifted eastward, and its primary aim is indeed to fight al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan and its backers, the Taliban. By strengthening its military presence and political influence in the heart of Eurasian geopolitics, the United States can easily expand its influence in Central and South Asia. A westward advance would deter Iran, a rival in the Middle East, which would inevitably intensify the game between the big powers of Central and South Asia. The eastward shift of the U.S. counterterrorism focus will inevitably have an unpredictable impact on China's economic and energy interests in South and Central Asia, and will have a bearing on the national security of western China. China's geopolitical space will be compressed, and its strategic relationship with Pakistan will be fraught with uncertainty. The successful integration of Afghanistan and Pakistan will play a key role in the integration of Central Asia and South Asia, when the United States will form a circle of China, China's future development will be constrained by the United States. China should actively participate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, increase its economic and technical assistance to Afghanistan, strengthen its cooperation with the Afghan Government in the areas of anti-terrorism, drug smuggling and organized crime, and help Afghanistan realize "people ruling Afghanistan" as soon as possible; Strengthening relations with Pakistan, consolidating the deep friendship between the two countries through vigorously developing economic and trade relations, promoting the SCO to play a constructive role in resolving the problems between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and strengthening strategic cooperative relations with Russia; Strengthen the development of the west, narrow the gap between the east and the west, promote the economic development of the minority areas, strengthen the national identity of the ethnic minorities, intensify the crackdown on the three evil forces, and ensure the political stability of the northwest region; Properly handle major-power relations and create a secure and stable surrounding environment for China's western region.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D871.2
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