国际关系研究中的反事实推理法
发布时间：2018-10-16 09:27
【摘要】：国际关系研究中的反事实推理作为一种思维实验,补充了传统的因果推理,可以适应复杂系统对偶然性的关注。反事实推理以情景分析为工具,以合理性、相近性、理论性和真实性的标准,可以"重构"历史的多种可能性,进而探寻历史事件的深层原因,也可以分析未来事件的多种可能性,进而对国际关系决策起到借鉴和指导作用。但因为反事实推理本身的局限性,使用时应该谨慎细致,以免偏离科学研究的轨道。
[Abstract]:Counterfactual reasoning in the study of international relations, as a thinking experiment, complements the traditional causal reasoning and can be adapted to the attention of complex systems to contingency. Anti-fact reasoning takes situational analysis as a tool, and with the criteria of rationality, similarity, theory and authenticity, it can "reconstruct" various possibilities of history, and then explore the deep causes of historical events. It can also analyze various possibilities of future events, and then serve as a reference and guide for international relations decision-making. However, because of the limitation of counterfactual reasoning, it should be used carefully and carefully so as not to deviate from the track of scientific research.
【作者单位】： 中共中央党校国际战略研究所;复旦大学;
【分类号】：D81
[Abstract]:Counterfactual reasoning in the study of international relations, as a thinking experiment, complements the traditional causal reasoning and can be adapted to the attention of complex systems to contingency. Anti-fact reasoning takes situational analysis as a tool, and with the criteria of rationality, similarity, theory and authenticity, it can "reconstruct" various possibilities of history, and then explore the deep causes of historical events. It can also analyze various possibilities of future events, and then serve as a reference and guide for international relations decision-making. However, because of the limitation of counterfactual reasoning, it should be used carefully and carefully so as not to deviate from the track of scientific research.
【作者单位】： 中共中央党校国际战略研究所;复旦大学;
【分类号】：D81
【参考文献】
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1 唐世平;张e，
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