反复性紧张局势的后果研究——以东亚双边争端为例

发布时间：2018-11-05 18:52

【摘要】：反复性紧张局势是双边争端的普遍特征。行为体间一系列反复发生的紧张局势已经成为东亚地区海上争端的基本特征。作者在已有的竞争进化论、学习理论与螺旋模型研究的基础上,结合国际关系中情感要素研究的最新成果,分析这类反复性紧张局势的后果。重复且尚未解决的一系列紧张事件应该被视为一种相互承接的过程,先前的事件会成为后续事件发生的背景因素。随着每次紧张局势的爆发,政治形势会发生相应的变化,在未解决的争端中,反复出现的紧张局势会加剧双边对抗。由于争端行为体间缺乏有效的沟通和协调会使紧张状态持续,并刺激领导人在下一次危机中采用更为强硬的手段,反复性紧张局势会使双方的摩擦愈加频繁和强烈,同时反复性危机中的心理效应和国内政治动态作用于领导人和公众两个层次,鼓励他们在危机中孤注一掷而非采取妥协的策略。作者对比了一系列东亚海上领土争端中反复性紧张局势的后果,从而说明这一逻辑。
[Abstract]:Recurrent tensions are a common feature of bilateral disputes. A series of recurrent tensions among actors have become the basic characteristics of maritime disputes in East Asia. On the basis of the existing theories of competitive evolution, learning theory and spiral model, the author analyzes the consequences of this kind of recurrent tension by combining the latest research results of emotional elements in international relations. A series of repeated and unresolved tensions should be regarded as a process of mutual acceptance, and the previous events will be the background factors for subsequent events. With each outbreak of tension, the political situation changes accordingly, and in unresolved disputes recurrent tensions exacerbate bilateral confrontation. Owing to the lack of effective communication and coordination among the dispute actors to perpetuate tensions and to stimulate leaders to take a more assertive approach in the next crisis, recurrent tensions can increase the frequency and intensity of friction between the two sides, At the same time, the psychological effect and the domestic political dynamics of the recurrent crisis affect the leaders and the public at the two levels, encouraging them to put all their efforts into the crisis rather than adopting a compromise strategy. The author compares the consequences of repeated tensions in a series of East Asian maritime territorial disputes to illustrate this logic.
【作者单位】：新加坡国立大学政治学系;牛津大学政治学与国际关系系;北京外国语大学;
【分类号】：D815

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