信任与遵守：《不扩散核武器条约》无核缔约国的核政策研究
发布时间：2018-11-12 18:06
【摘要】：信任是国家遵守行为的重要影响因素。信任指信任者关于被信任者倾向于相互合作,而不是利用信任者合作的信念。遵守是指国家行为与国际制度相关规定相一致的一种状态。根据形成动因,信任关系可以分为不同的类别：观念性不信任/信任、战略性不信任/信任。这些类别共同构成信任光谱,预示着不同的信任关系和不同的不信任/信任程度。不同类型的信任关系对国家遵守行为产生不同影响。存在着观念性不信任关系的国家之间处于零和状态,他们倾向于怀疑对方遵守承诺的可信性,而且这一猜疑可能会变成自我实现的预言。存在观念性信任关系的国家拥有更多的共同利益,他们倾向于认为对方将遵守承诺,关注外部环境对对方的不利影响,并共同努力消除这些影响。存在着战略性不信任/信任的国家属于非敌非友,他们根据具体的成本收益预测对方是否可信,进而采取相应的行为。 以信任关系为基础,本文将《不扩散核武器条约》(NPT)的无核缔约国分为三类：第一类,与美国存在着观念性不信任的国家,如伊拉克、朝鲜、利比亚和伊朗等国。美国一直谴责这类国家违反NPT,并威胁将对其采取强硬措施。美国的态度引起了这些国家的抵抗,并有可能导致他们最终违反NPT。第二类,与美国存在着观念性信任的国家,如以美国为核心的“西方自由安全共同体”成员。这类国家的安全受到美国保护,他们发展先进核技术的权利也得到充分保障,因此倾向于遵守NPT。不仅如此,他们还与美国一道防止核扩散。第三类,前两类之外的国家。这些国家可能与他国存在纷争,但其国家和政权安全不受严峻威胁。当纷争得到有效解决之后,这类国家倾向于遵守NPT。为了进一步说明信任关系对NPT无核缔约国核政策的影响,本文选取伊朗、日本和埃及作为案例研究对象,分析信任关系对他们核政策的影响。
[Abstract]:Trust is an important factor influencing the behavior of state compliance. Trust refers to the trustor's belief that the trusted person tends to cooperate with each other rather than using the trusted person to cooperate. Compliance is a state in which the act of state is consistent with the relevant provisions of the international system. According to the motivation of formation, trust relationship can be divided into different categories: conceptual distrust / trust, strategic distrust / trust. These categories together constitute the spectrum of trust, indicating different trust relationships and different levels of distrust / trust. Different types of trust have different effects on the behavior of state compliance. Countries with idealistic mistrust are in a zero-sum state and tend to doubt the credibility of the other party's commitment and that suspicion could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Countries with an idealistic relationship of trust have more common interests and tend to believe that they will keep their commitments, pay attention to the adverse effects of the external environment on each other and work together to eliminate them. The countries with strategic distrust / trust are non-enemies and non-friends. They predict the credibility of each other according to the specific cost and benefit, and then adopt corresponding behavior. Based on the relationship of trust, this paper divides the non-nuclear States parties of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear weapons (NPT) into three categories: the first type, which has an idealistic distrust with the United States, such as Iraq, North Korea, Libya and Iran. The United States has accused such countries of violating the NPT, and has threatened to take tough action against it. The attitude of the United States has provoked resistance from these countries and may lead to their eventual violation of the NPT. Second, countries that have an ideological trust with the United States, such as members of the Western Free Security Community with the United States at its core. The security of such countries is protected by the United States, their right to develop advanced nuclear technology is fully guaranteed, and they tend to comply with the NPT. Not only that, they also work with the United States to prevent nuclear proliferation. Third, countries outside the first two categories. These countries may have disputes with others, but their national and political security is not seriously threatened. When disputes are resolved effectively, such countries tend to comply with the NPT. In order to further explain the influence of trust relationship on the nuclear policy of NPT non-nuclear states, this paper selects Iran, Japan and Egypt as case studies to analyze the impact of trust relationship on their nuclear policy.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815.2
本文编号：2327818
[Abstract]:Trust is an important factor influencing the behavior of state compliance. Trust refers to the trustor's belief that the trusted person tends to cooperate with each other rather than using the trusted person to cooperate. Compliance is a state in which the act of state is consistent with the relevant provisions of the international system. According to the motivation of formation, trust relationship can be divided into different categories: conceptual distrust / trust, strategic distrust / trust. These categories together constitute the spectrum of trust, indicating different trust relationships and different levels of distrust / trust. Different types of trust have different effects on the behavior of state compliance. Countries with idealistic mistrust are in a zero-sum state and tend to doubt the credibility of the other party's commitment and that suspicion could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Countries with an idealistic relationship of trust have more common interests and tend to believe that they will keep their commitments, pay attention to the adverse effects of the external environment on each other and work together to eliminate them. The countries with strategic distrust / trust are non-enemies and non-friends. They predict the credibility of each other according to the specific cost and benefit, and then adopt corresponding behavior. Based on the relationship of trust, this paper divides the non-nuclear States parties of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear weapons (NPT) into three categories: the first type, which has an idealistic distrust with the United States, such as Iraq, North Korea, Libya and Iran. The United States has accused such countries of violating the NPT, and has threatened to take tough action against it. The attitude of the United States has provoked resistance from these countries and may lead to their eventual violation of the NPT. Second, countries that have an ideological trust with the United States, such as members of the Western Free Security Community with the United States at its core. The security of such countries is protected by the United States, their right to develop advanced nuclear technology is fully guaranteed, and they tend to comply with the NPT. Not only that, they also work with the United States to prevent nuclear proliferation. Third, countries outside the first two categories. These countries may have disputes with others, but their national and political security is not seriously threatened. When disputes are resolved effectively, such countries tend to comply with the NPT. In order to further explain the influence of trust relationship on the nuclear policy of NPT non-nuclear states, this paper selects Iran, Japan and Egypt as case studies to analyze the impact of trust relationship on their nuclear policy.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815.2
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