美国外交战略调整与中美关系

发布时间：2018-11-19 08:02

【摘要】：美国正处于其独立以来国运兴衰的十字路口,它既可能就此进入霸权衰落的长期通道,也可能扭转态势实现霸权重振。为实现再度称霸,维持已延续二百余年的国运上升态势,奥巴马政府已对其外交战略进行重大调整。尽管特朗普政府的外交战略尚不明朗且表现出诸多与奥巴马政府的区别性特征,但其宗旨仍是"让美国再度伟大"。鉴于美国缺乏管理霸权衰落的历史经验,其外交战略调整涉及多个方面,既有管理物质性霸权衰落的现实主义战略,也有护持制度霸权与规范霸权的理想主义战略,更有预防中国崛起的冒险主义战略。如果说奥巴马政府外交战略的调整兼具三个方面,特朗普政府则侧重第一和第三方面。尽管如此,奥巴马政府和特朗普政府的共同假设是美国物质霸权的相对衰落以及对大战略的战略节约、战略集中要求。为应对美国这一可能持续较长时期的外交战略调整,特别是妥善处理由此带来的战略不确定性,中国应推动中美关系保障机制建设,包括短期的危机预警与管理机制,中期的合作关系早期收获计划,长期的中美人文交流、战略互信机制建设,等等。
[Abstract]:The United States is at the crossroads of the rise and fall of its national fortunes since its independence. It may enter the long-term channel of hegemonic decline or reverse the trend of hegemonic revival. The Obama administration has made major adjustments to its diplomatic strategy in order to regain its hegemony and maintain a rising trend of national fortunes that has lasted for more than two hundred years. Although the Trump administration's diplomatic strategy is unclear and shows many distinguishing features from the Obama administration, its purpose is to "make America great again." In view of the lack of historical experience in managing the decline of hegemony in the United States, the adjustment of its diplomatic strategy involves many aspects, not only the realistic strategy of managing the decline of material hegemony, but also the idealistic strategy of defending institutional hegemony and regulating hegemony. More to prevent China's rise of adventurism strategy. If the Obama administration's diplomatic strategy is adjusted in three ways, the Trump administration has focused on the first and third. Nevertheless, the common assumptions of the Obama administration and the Trump administration are the relative decline of America's material hegemony and its strategic savings on the grand strategy, which is the focus of strategy. In order to cope with the US diplomatic strategic adjustment, which may last for a long time, especially to properly deal with the strategic uncertainty brought about by it, China should promote the establishment of a guarantee mechanism for Sino-US relations, including a short-term crisis warning and management mechanism. Mid-term cooperative relationship early harvest plan, long-term Chinese-American cultural exchange, strategic mutual trust mechanism construction, and so on.
【作者单位】：复旦大学美国研究中心;
【基金】：上海市哲学社会科学规划一般项目“美国重建制度能力的战略和政策及我应对方略研究”(2016BGJ003)的中期成果
【分类号】：D822.371.2;D871.2

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