基于认知差异的恐怖主义袭击误对策分析

发布时间：2019-01-21 20:19

【摘要】：恐怖袭击事件中博弈双方高度不对称和存在认知差异,误对策方法提供了合适的分析框架.本文运用误对策分析方法剖析了恐怖袭击事件中政府反恐力量与恐怖分子的认知差异,并分析了不同情境下策略冲突的平衡结局.由于双方认知偏差可能导致不存在纯策略纳什均衡,而混合均衡进一步加大了策略的不确定性,安全策略采取"安全第一"的原则使决策者避免最大风险,相对于纳什均衡更合适作为存在认知差异的误对策问题的均衡分析方法.在实践操作角度上,恐怖袭击二阶误对策模型的平衡结局为恐怖分子发动的恐怖袭击行动将被挫败,因此提出提高反恐效能的政策建议,即发动社会民众提供反恐情报和预警线索,提高民众反恐意识.
[Abstract]:The game is highly asymmetrical and cognitive difference exists in the terrorist attack, and the false countermeasure provides an appropriate analytical framework. This paper analyzes the cognitive differences between government anti-terrorist forces and terrorists in terrorist attacks and the balanced outcome of strategic conflicts in different situations. Because the cognitive bias between the two sides may lead to the non-existence of pure strategy Nash equilibrium, and the mixed equilibrium further increases the uncertainty of the policy, the security policy adopts the principle of "security first" to avoid the greatest risk. Compared with Nash equilibrium, it is more suitable to be used as an equilibrium analysis method for the problem of mistaken countermeasures with cognitive differences. From a practical point of view, the balanced outcome of the second-order mis-countermeasures model for terrorist attacks is that terrorist attacks launched by terrorists will be thwarted, so policy recommendations to improve the effectiveness of counter-terrorism are put forward. That is to mobilize the public to provide anti-terrorism intelligence and early warning clues, improve the public awareness of anti-terrorism.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心;东北财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71271045,71571033) 东北财经大学学科建设支持计划特色学科项目(XKT-201411) 东北财经大学科研创新团队培育与扶持计划国际合作研究支持项目(DUFE2015GY03)
【分类号】：D815.5

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