弃权还是否决——中国如何在安理会投票中表达反对立场

发布时间：2019-03-18 13:20

【摘要】：作为联合国安理会常任理事国,中国在安理会的投票中,同样是表迭反对意见,有时选择弃权票,有时则选择否决票。为了分析这一问题,作者研究了从1971年10月中国恢复联合国席位到2012年12月31日这段时间的相关数据。在此期间联合国安理会提出的决议草案数量为1797个,中国在安理会一共投了137次弃权票,9次否决票。作者根据相关数据建立了回归模型,发现随着中国实力的不断增强,中国在不同意时会倾向于通过否决票表示反对。随着中国加入联合国的时间增长,通过社会化逐渐接受国际规范,也容易在不同意时以否决票来表示。若议题涉及主权或安全问题,中国在不同意时会倾向于投否决票。中国对于中东和非中东的亚洲事务的关注程度明显不同,对于中东问题,中国的行为趋于风险规避;但是若涉及中国周边或中国自身,此时中国如果不采取行动就会面临损失,因此愿意冒险投否决票。以上发现表明,中国在安理会的投票不仅有自己一贯的立场和原则,并且具有"推己及人"、"由内而外"的传统思维特点。
[Abstract]:As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China has also expressed opposition to the Security Council's vote, sometimes abstaining and sometimes voting no. In order to analyze this problem, the authors studied the relevant data for the period from October 1971 to December 31, 2012, when China resumed its seat in the United Nations. The number of draft resolutions introduced by the UN Security Council during this period was 1797, and China abstained and voted nine times in the Security Council. Based on the relevant data, the author builds a regression model and finds that with the increasing strength of China, China tends to oppose it by a negative vote when it disagrees. As China's entry into the United Nations grows, the gradual acceptance of international norms through socialization is also easy to denigrate in the event of disapproval. When it comes to sovereignty or security, China tends to vote no if it disagrees. China's attention to Asian affairs in the Middle East and non-Middle East is obviously different. For the Middle East issue, China's behavior tends to be risk aversion. But when it comes to China's periphery or itself, China faces losses if it doesn't act and is willing to risk a no vote. The above findings show that China's vote in the Security Council not only has its own consistent stand and principle, but also has the traditional thinking characteristics of "pushing oneself to others" and "from inside to outside".
【作者单位】：清华大学国际关系学系;
【基金】：北京高等学校青年英才计划项目资助(项目编号:YETP0148)
【分类号】：D815.4

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