朝核问题上的大国博弈研究
发布时间：2019-04-07 19:02
【摘要】：朝核问题是近些年来影响东北亚地区和平与稳定的主要问题之一,两次核危机的爆发使得其一度成为全世界关注的焦点。朝核问题不仅仅是朝鲜一个国家的事情,它的主要当事方是朝鲜和美国,但实际上牵涉到相关六方的利益,因此围绕朝核问题进行的博弈是一场复杂的多边博弈,只有了解六方国家各自的利益追求,才有助于我们分析并更好地推动朝核问题的解决。从朝鲜自身的角度来看,发展核武器既可以为自己带来安全利益,也可以因此换取经济利益;从美国的角度看,朝鲜拥核侵犯了美国的经济、政治、军事和安全利益,是绝对不被允许的;从韩国的角度看,朝核问题使韩国外交陷入到“南北统一民族”和“美韩同盟”之间进行痛苦抉择的困境;对于日本来说,主要是利用朝核危机,为自己实现世界政治军事大国的目标添一臂之;对于俄罗斯来说,积极介入到朝核危机中,是其在当前非均衡态势下的有利选择;对于中国来说,朝核问题关涉到切身的政治、经济、安全等重大战略利益,中国应发挥自身的独特优势,在朝核问题上起到积极有力的建设性作用。 朝核问题迟迟得不到有效解决的关键原因在于主要当事国之间深深的不信任感,以及缺乏一个有效的监督与制裁机制来确保各方责任和义务的履行。要走出朝核问题博弈的困境,不仅美朝两国之间应该加强沟通、重建互信,还要充分发挥中国的作用,同时进一步完善这场博弈的规制建设,相关各方应树立合作安全的新观念,为建立东北亚多边安全机制奠定良好的基础。
[Abstract]:The North Korean nuclear issue is one of the main problems affecting peace and stability in Northeast Asia in recent years. The outbreak of two nuclear crises has made it the focus of the world at one time. The North Korean nuclear issue is not just a matter for North Korea, its main parties are North Korea and the United States, but it actually involves the interests of the six parties concerned, so the game around the North Korean nuclear issue is a complex multilateral game. Only understanding the interests of the six-party countries will help us to analyze and better promote the settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue. From North Korea's own point of view, the development of nuclear weapons can not only bring their own security benefits, but also can be exchanged for economic interests; From the point of view of the United States, North Korea's nuclear ownership infringes upon the economic, political, military and security interests of the United States and is absolutely not allowed; From the point of view of South Korea, the North Korean nuclear issue makes the Korean diplomacy fall into the dilemma of making a painful choice between the "North-South United Nation" and "the United States-ROK Alliance". For Japan, it is mainly the use of the North Korean nuclear crisis to achieve the goals of the world's political and military powers, for Russia, actively involved in the North Korean nuclear crisis, is its favorable choice in the current unbalanced situation; For China, the DPRK nuclear issue is related to the vital political, economic, security and other major strategic interests, China should give play to its own unique advantages, play a positive and constructive role in the DPRK nuclear issue. The key reasons for the delay in the effective settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue lie in the deep sense of mistrust among the major parties and the lack of an effective monitoring and sanctions mechanism to ensure the fulfilment of the responsibilities and obligations of all parties. To get out of the dilemma of the North Korean nuclear game, we should not only strengthen communication and rebuild mutual trust between the United States and North Korea, but also give full play to China's role, and at the same time further improve the regulation and construction of this game. All parties concerned should establish a new concept of cooperative security and lay a good foundation for the establishment of multilateral security mechanism in Northeast Asia.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815.2
本文编号：2454335
[Abstract]:The North Korean nuclear issue is one of the main problems affecting peace and stability in Northeast Asia in recent years. The outbreak of two nuclear crises has made it the focus of the world at one time. The North Korean nuclear issue is not just a matter for North Korea, its main parties are North Korea and the United States, but it actually involves the interests of the six parties concerned, so the game around the North Korean nuclear issue is a complex multilateral game. Only understanding the interests of the six-party countries will help us to analyze and better promote the settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue. From North Korea's own point of view, the development of nuclear weapons can not only bring their own security benefits, but also can be exchanged for economic interests; From the point of view of the United States, North Korea's nuclear ownership infringes upon the economic, political, military and security interests of the United States and is absolutely not allowed; From the point of view of South Korea, the North Korean nuclear issue makes the Korean diplomacy fall into the dilemma of making a painful choice between the "North-South United Nation" and "the United States-ROK Alliance". For Japan, it is mainly the use of the North Korean nuclear crisis to achieve the goals of the world's political and military powers, for Russia, actively involved in the North Korean nuclear crisis, is its favorable choice in the current unbalanced situation; For China, the DPRK nuclear issue is related to the vital political, economic, security and other major strategic interests, China should give play to its own unique advantages, play a positive and constructive role in the DPRK nuclear issue. The key reasons for the delay in the effective settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue lie in the deep sense of mistrust among the major parties and the lack of an effective monitoring and sanctions mechanism to ensure the fulfilment of the responsibilities and obligations of all parties. To get out of the dilemma of the North Korean nuclear game, we should not only strengthen communication and rebuild mutual trust between the United States and North Korea, but also give full play to China's role, and at the same time further improve the regulation and construction of this game. All parties concerned should establish a new concept of cooperative security and lay a good foundation for the establishment of multilateral security mechanism in Northeast Asia.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：D815.2
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