试析后债务危机时期的欧盟及其前景

发布时间：2019-05-18 06:39

【摘要】：欧债危机已基本结束,但其给欧盟经济、社会及其一体化发展带来的负面影响远未中止,短期内甚至还有可能继续蔓延和深化。其突出表现是:经济上通缩风险增大;民众心理和社会思潮仍继续右倾,极右势力发酵;欧盟内部持续分化,德法力量对比失衡,欧洲一体化进程受阻,等等。债务危机也给欧盟带来了系列具有深远影响的积极变化,欧盟特别是欧元区机制体制得到完善,成员国改革意识增强,更重要的是形成了欧元区核心。欧盟未来发展既存在种种消极因素的阻碍,也面临一些新机遇。后债务危机时期的欧盟发展不会一帆风顺,将面临一段较长的调整和巩固期。但欧盟向前发展的大势不会逆转,仍将继续深化和扩大。在经济领域,欧元区的核心作用将更为突出。就欧盟整体而言,共同外交与安全政策可能会有新的发展。
[Abstract]:The European debt crisis has basically ended, but its negative impact on the economic, social and integration development of the European Union is far from ending, and may even continue to spread and deepen in the short term. Its outstanding manifestations are: the risk of economic deflation increases; the psychological and social trend of thought of the people continues to lean to the right, the far-right forces ferment; the continuous differentiation within the European Union, the imbalance between Germany and France, the obstruction of the process of European integration, and so on. The debt crisis has also brought about a series of positive changes with far-reaching effects on the EU. The EU, especially the euro zone mechanism, has been improved, the awareness of member States to reform has been enhanced, and, more importantly, the core of the euro zone has been formed. There are not only all kinds of negative factors hindering the future development of EU, but also some new opportunities. The development of the European Union in the post-debt crisis will not be smooth sailing and will face a long period of adjustment and consolidation. However, the general trend of the European Union will not be reversed, will continue to deepen and expand. In the economic sphere, the central role of the euro zone will be even more prominent. As far as the EU as a whole is concerned, there may be new developments in the common foreign and security policy.
【作者单位】：中国现代国际关系研究院欧洲所;
【分类号】：F815;D814.1

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