浅析奥巴马政府“阿富汗—巴基斯坦”反恐新战略

发布时间：2019-06-05 12:22

【摘要】：2009年3月27日，，奥巴马政府第一次正式公布“阿富汗——巴基斯坦”反恐新战略。本文主要对奥巴马政府的“阿富巴”新战略做了四个方面的初步探析：反恐新战略提出的背景及原因、内容及新意、对其评析及得失分析。本文认为，关于新战略出台的背景包含国际和国内两方面的因素，其中美国全球战略的“战略收缩”、挽回受损的国际形象以及美民众及盟友的态度转变是其出台的内因，阿巴反恐形势持续恶化是其客观外因，内外因的共同推动才促使了新战略的出台。而新战略的内容也主要是针对阿富汗和巴基斯坦，主要是美国对两国运用“双轨”战略及胡萝卜加大棒政策，但是新战略的运用不同以往，其中还蕴含着新意，如实现阿巴反恐一体化及缩小打击目标等。对新战略的评析主要是从其恢复美国领导地位的实质及对国际格局的影响来分析的，新战略对南亚、中东以及中亚都产生了巨大影响。此外，新战略的推行也不是一帆风顺的，它也面临着严峻的挑战，主要是从美阿、美巴、国际与地区合作以及反恐新战略自身存在的问题四个方面来分析。此外，新战略的成功是建立在一系列的假设基础之上的。文章最后通过对这些假设的逐一分析，对新战略的前景做出了预测：新战略的前景黯淡，它最终只可能会取得有限成功，并演化成奥巴马的“撤出战略”，以集中主要精力来应对新兴大国的崛起。
[Abstract]:On March 27, 2009, the Obama administration officially announced a new Afghanistan-Pakistan counter-terrorism strategy for the first time. This paper mainly makes a preliminary analysis of the Obama administration's new strategy of "Afghanistan" in four aspects: the background, causes, contents and new ideas of the new strategy against terrorism, and its analysis and analysis of its gains and losses. This paper holds that the background of the introduction of the new strategy includes both international and domestic factors, among which the "strategic contraction" of the global strategy of the United States, the recovery of the damaged international image and the change of attitude of the American people and allies are the internal reasons for the introduction of the new strategy. The continuous deterioration of the anti-terrorism situation in Abba is its objective external cause, and the joint promotion of internal and external causes has promoted the introduction of the new strategy. And the content of the new strategy is mainly aimed at Afghanistan and Pakistan, mainly the United States to the two countries to use the "two-track" strategy and carrot and stick policy, but the use of the new strategy is different from the past, which also contains new ideas. Such as the realization of Abba anti-terrorism integration and reduce the target, and so on. The analysis of the new strategy is mainly based on the essence of its restoration of American leadership and its influence on the international pattern. The new strategy has a great impact on South Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia. In addition, the implementation of the new strategy is not smooth sailing, it is also facing severe challenges, mainly from the United States and Afghanistan, the United States and Pakistan, international and regional cooperation and the new counter-terrorism strategy its own problems. In addition, the success of the new strategy is based on a series of assumptions. Finally, through the analysis of these assumptions one by one, the paper forecasts the prospect of the new strategy: the prospect of the new strategy is bleak, and it is only likely to achieve limited success and evolve into Obama's "exit strategy." Focus on the rise of emerging powers.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D871.2

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