中东变局与阿拉伯国家的民主转型

发布时间：2019-07-24 08:29

【摘要】：中东变局是一场席卷阿拉伯世界的地区性政治与社会运动,既有共性特征,但在不同国家又有巨大的差异性;阿拉伯国家在政治、经济与社会领域存在的积弊,是中东变局的根本原因,但也受到美国"大中东民主计划"等外部因素的影响;民主变革和民主转型无疑构成了中东变局的重要组成部分,目前阿拉伯国家均在进行民主转型和民主改革,但也面临诸多挑战。伊斯兰教、军人干政和地缘政治因素构成了影响阿拉伯国家民主转型的核心因素。从伊斯兰教与民主转型的关系来看,教俗对立将继续困扰阿拉伯国家民主转型,同时温和伊斯兰力量也将探索伊斯兰特色的民主道路,伊斯兰与民主的关系将呈现多样化发展态势,并不断进行调整与重塑。从军人干政与民主转型的关系看,阿拉伯国家军人干政的消解需要经历从民主启动、民主巩固到民主运转的长期的历史过程,同时有赖于宗教与世俗关系经长期磨合互动后而走向正常化。从地缘政治与民主转型的关系看,阿拉伯国家内部复杂的宗教、教派和族群矛盾,阿拉伯国家间的矛盾、意识形态竞争和地区领导权的争夺以及西方大国的军事干涉和民主输出,都加剧了阿拉伯国家民主转型的动荡。
[Abstract]:The Middle East change is a regional political and social movement sweeping the Arab world, which not only has common characteristics, but also has great differences in different countries. The disadvantages of Arab countries in the political, economic and social fields are the root cause of the Middle East change, but they are also influenced by external factors such as the Great Middle East Democracy Plan of the United States. Democratic change and democratic transformation undoubtedly constitute an important part of the Middle East change. At present, Arab countries are carrying out democratic transformation and democratic reform, but they are also facing many challenges. Islam, military politics and geopolitical factors constitute the core factors affecting the democratic transformation in Arab countries. From the point of view of the relationship between Islam and democratic transformation, religious and vulgar antagonism will continue to perplexing the democratic transformation in Arab countries. At the same time, moderate Islamic forces will also explore the democratic road with Islamic characteristics. The relationship between Islam and democracy will show a diversified development trend, and constantly adjust and reshape. From the point of view of the relationship between military affairs and democratic transformation, the digestion of military affairs in Arab countries needs to go through a long historical process from the beginning of democracy, the consolidation of democracy to the operation of democracy, and at the same time depends on the normalization of religious and secular relations after a long period of running-in interaction. From the point of view of the relationship between geopolitics and democratic transformation, the complex religious, sectarian and ethnic contradictions within Arab countries, the contradictions among Arab countries, ideological competition and competition for regional leadership, as well as the military intervention and democratic export of western powers, all aggravate the instability of democratic transformation in Arab countries.
【作者单位】：上海外国语大学中东研究所;
【基金】：2008年教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“当代中东国际关系中的伊斯兰因素研究”(项目编号:08JJDGJW256) 2010年上海市哲学社会科学规划课题“中国热点外交的理论与案例研究”(项目编号:2010BGJ002)的阶段性成果上海市政治学一流学科建设项目国家211工程建设项目资助
【分类号】：D815.4

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