美国亚太“再平衡”战略的动力变化以及中国之应对

发布时间：2019-07-25 08:27

【摘要】：美国国内尽管对其霸权是否真正衰落仍存争议,但对以美国霸权衰落为基点制定中长期战略却有着重要共识。正是基于这一共识,美亚太"再平衡"战略提出后得到坚决执行。但深入考察可以发现,奥巴马政府进入第二任期后,亚太"再平衡"战略明显表现出动力不足态势,目前其对该战略的政策预期已经从一开始的全面推进降为相对保守的维持和等待。需要指出的是,这种动力不足态势很可能是短期的,中长期看,由于国家实力的复苏及动员方式的变化等,美国亚太"再平衡"战略可能重新获得充足动力。美国亚太"再平衡"战略动力的变动可能为中国提供一个短期的战略机会之窗,中国需要有效利用这一动力"换挡"期,设计全面和长远的大战略方案,推动中美"新型大国关系"的构建。
[Abstract]:Although there is still controversy about the real decline of its hegemony in the United States, there is an important consensus on the formulation of medium-and long-term strategy based on the decline of American hegemony. It is based on this consensus that the US Asia-Pacific "rebalancing" strategy has been resolutely implemented. However, an in-depth study shows that after the Obama administration enters its second term, the "rebalancing" strategy in the Asia-Pacific region clearly shows a lack of momentum, and its policy expectations for the strategy have been reduced from a comprehensive advance to a relatively conservative maintenance and waiting. It should be pointed out that this lack of momentum is likely to be short-term, and in the medium to long term, the US Asia-Pacific "rebalancing" strategy may regain sufficient momentum as a result of the recovery of national power and changes in the way it is mobilized. The change of "rebalancing" strategic motive force in the Asia-Pacific region of the United States may provide a window of short-term strategic opportunities for China. China needs to make effective use of this driving force "shift" period to design a comprehensive and long-term strategic plan to promote the construction of a "new type of great power relationship" between China and the United States.
【作者单位】：复旦大学美国研究中心;
【分类号】：D822.371.2

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