明代雹灾的关联信息挖掘研究

发布时间：2018-04-11 15:53

本文选题：明代 + 雹灾　；参考：《四川大学学报(自然科学版)》2014年05期

【摘要】：本文对收集的明代雹灾史料进行整理和分类,构建了我国明代的雹灾数据库,将雹灾的定性描述转化成定量描述.根据冰雹的大小和造成的危害进行等级划分,对发生雹灾时伴随的其它阵性天气现象进行统计分析.利用关联挖掘模型——CARMA算法挖掘不同等级的雹灾与风、雨、雷电等阵性天气的关联性及其有关规律.结果表明,明代的雹灾与雨的关联性最大,其次是风和雷电,它们易带来大雨雹或大风雨雹等灾害.同时不同等级的雹灾发生时伴随着其他的阵性天气的置信度也存在着差异,因此当雹灾出现的时候,应同样考虑到其他如暴雨、狂风、雷电等强对流天气灾害造成的危害.作者通过本文的研究获得了雹灾的关联信息,对于指导雹灾的预报与支持决策有一定的参考价值.
[Abstract]:In this paper, the collected historical data of hail disaster in Ming Dynasty are sorted and classified, and the database of hail disaster in Ming Dynasty is constructed, and the qualitative description of hail disaster is transformed into quantitative description.According to the size of hail and the damage caused by it, the other array weather phenomena associated with hail disaster were statistically analyzed.The association mining model-CARMA algorithm is used to mine the correlation and related rules between hail and wind, rain, lightning and other array weather.The results show that the correlation between hail and rain is the greatest in Ming Dynasty, followed by wind and lightning, which are easy to bring heavy rain and hail or heavy rain hail and other disasters.At the same time, there are also differences in confidence between different grades of hail disasters accompanied by other array weather. Therefore, when hail disasters occur, the hazards caused by other severe convective weather disasters such as heavy rain, strong wind and lightning should also be taken into account.The author obtained the relevant information of hail disaster through the research in this paper, which has certain reference value for guiding hail disaster forecast and supporting decision.
【作者单位】：内蒙古气象信息中心;
【基金】：公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目(GYHY201206031) 内蒙古气象局青年科技项目(nmqnqx201217)
【分类号】：TP311.13

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