清代云南（1711-1911年）的季风气候与天气灾害

发布时间：2018-06-12 06:12

本文选题：清代 + 云南　；参考：《复旦大学》2005年博士论文

【摘要】：云南地处北半球低纬高原,由于其特殊的地理位置,受到多种季风环流的影响。其气候的演变,有着自己显著的特点。对这一地区的历史气候进行研究,讨论其气候变化的特点和机制,对亚洲季风和全球变化的研究,均有重要的意义。本文主要利用档案、方志和文集等历史文献中的相关资料,以恢复重建高分辨率的清代(1711-1911年)云南雨季开始期、昆明雨季强弱和冬季平均气温序列为中心,并进行相关的方法上的探索。主要的研究和结论如下: 通过系统的收集和整理档案、方志和文集中存留的史料,建立了目前最完备的云南历史气候史料ACCESS数据库。初步探索清代气象情况奏报制度的形成,并通过对清代档案中降水、灾害和收成资料的具体研究和分析,指出了其中存在的系统偏差及其原因,并提出了对历史天气资料系统偏差的检验方法。探索了科学可行的利用文献资料进行雨季开始期序列复原的方法,并成功地对云南1711-1911年间的雨季早晚进行复原。分析表明,云南雨季开始期在长时段上有明显的变化,并存在明显的准3年和11年周期,这在一定程度上反映了云南夏季风的变迁。同时发现,El Nino事件对云南雨季的开始期有重要的影响,但这种影响存在明显减弱的时期。可能意味着ENSO事件对亚洲夏季风的影响存在某种震荡。结合历史资料的情况,探索精度介于降水量复原和旱涝等级间的降水等级的复原方法,并尝试采用了更符合降水实际情况的偏态分布。采取了一系列针对资料存在的系统偏差问题的纠偏措施,取得了满意的效果。分析表明,1711-1911年201年间昆明雨季降水可分为4个大的阶段,其变迁有自己的特点。太阳活动的长周期有可能影响到昆明的雨季降水。建立冬季降雪和干季降水的双因子回归方程,恢复了1721-1855年间昆明的冬季平均温度序列,这是目前重建的低纬度地区第一个高分辨率的历史气温序列。并利用其它资料补出了1856-1900年间的10年冬季平均温度序列。分析表明,18-19世纪昆明皆处于偏冷的时期,但又有一定的波动,且昆明气温存在跃升现象。而和全国其它地方比较,则其冷暖的变化有很多的差异性。对发生在1815-1817年间遍及云南大部分地区的大饥荒的气候成因进行了考察,指出大饥荒是连年夏秋低温导致的农作物大幅减产造成的,其原因为印度尼西亚坦博拉火山喷发。这次低温应在全国范围内都存在,但仅在低纬高原地区和北方农牧交错带附近造成较大影响。对1905-1907年间云南连续性的严重旱涝灾害的天气成因进行了具体分析,指出1905年和1907年的先早后涝都有El Nino事件的背景,而1906年的大旱
[Abstract]:Yunnan is located in the low latitude plateau of the Northern Hemisphere, which is influenced by various monsoon circulation because of its special geographical location. The evolution of its climate has its own remarkable characteristics. It is of great significance to study the historical climate of this region, to discuss the characteristics and mechanisms of climate change, and to study the Asian monsoon and global change. The relevant data in the historical documents such as local chronicles and collections of papers are used to restore and reconstruct the high-resolution Qing Dynasty 1711-1911) the beginning of the rainy season in Yunnan, the intensity of the rainy season in Kunming and the winter mean temperature series as the center, and the relevant methods are explored. The main research and conclusions are as follows: through the systematic collection and collation of archives, local chronicles and collected historical materials, Established the most complete access database of historical and climatic data of Yunnan at present. It preliminarily explored the formation of the report system of meteorological information in the Qing Dynasty, and through the specific research and analysis of precipitation, disaster and harvest data in the archives of the Qing Dynasty, This paper points out the system deviation and its causes, and puts forward a method to check the system deviation of historical weather data. The scientific and feasible method of restoring the sequence of the beginning of rainy season by using the literature data is explored. The rainy season of 1711-1911 in Yunnan was successfully restored. The analysis shows that the onset of the rainy season in Yunnan has obvious changes in a long period, and there are obvious quasi-3-year and 11-year cycles, which to some extent reflect the change of Yunnan summer monsoon. It is also found that the El Nino event has an important influence on the onset of the rainy season in Yunnan, but there is an obvious weakening period of this effect. It may mean that the ENSO event has some kind of oscillation on the Asian summer monsoon. In the light of historical data, this paper explores the methods of restoring precipitation grades with precision between precipitation recovery and drought and flood levels. The skewness distribution which is more in line with the actual precipitation is also tried. A series of correction measures are adopted to solve the problem of systematic deviation of data, and satisfactory results are obtained. The analysis shows that precipitation in the rainy season of Kunming from 1711 to 1911 201 can be divided into four stages, and its evolution has its own characteristics. The long period of solar activity may affect the precipitation in the rainy season in Kunming. The regression equations of winter snow and dry season precipitation are established, and the winter mean temperature series of Kunming from 1721 to 1855 are restored. This is the first high resolution historical temperature series currently reconstructed in low latitudes. Using other data, the 10-year winter mean temperature series from 1856 to 1900 is obtained. The analysis shows that Kunming is in the cold period in the 18th and 19th century, but there are some fluctuations, and the temperature in Kunming has a phenomenon of jump. Compared with other parts of the country, there are many differences between the cold and warm changes. The climatic causes of the great famine that occurred in most parts of Yunnan from 1815 to 1817 were investigated. It is pointed out that the famine is caused by the sharp decrease in crop production caused by successive summer and autumn low temperatures, which is caused by the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia. This low temperature should exist all over the country, but only in the low latitude plateau area and near the agricultural and pastoral ecotone in the north. The causes of the continuous severe drought and flood disasters in Yunnan during 1905-1907 are analyzed concretely. It is pointed out that the background of El Nino events existed in 1905 and 1907, and the severe drought in 1906.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2005
【分类号】：K249

【引证文献】