清末新政、财政崩溃与辛亥革命

发布时间：2018-04-20 11:25

本文选题：清末新政 + 财政崩溃　；参考：《世界经济》2015年06期

【摘要】：本文对清末新政与辛亥革命的关系进行了实证分析,在推导出平民与立宪派参与革命条件的基础上,证明后者的参与门槛较高。在经验实证部分,本文首先利用模型分析了不同财政压力下新政对民变的影响,发现财政盈余对以平民为主的民变有显著抑制作用,这一结果在选取备用变量与处理内生性的情况下仍具有稳健性;其次,本文讨论了立宪派在预备立宪时期的活动,发现在1910年之后,立宪派显著增加了政治方面的诉求;最后,本文还考察了不同阶层的参与对辛亥革命胜利的贡献,发现民变数量、革命党与立宪派的活动均有显著正向影响。清末新政失败有两个原因:一是在财政面临崩溃之时实施新政,引发了底层民众的抗争;二是清政府在实施地方自治的同时加强中央集权,引发立宪派的不满,使一部分主张立宪的人转而与清廷对立,最终使清政府丧失了执政基础。
[Abstract]:This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the New deal in the late Qing Dynasty and the Revolution of 1911. On the basis of deducing the conditions under which the common people and the constitutionalists participate in the revolution, it is proved that the latter has a higher threshold for participation. In the empirical and empirical part, this paper first uses the model to analyze the influence of the New deal on the civil insurrection under different financial pressures, and finds that the fiscal surplus has a significant inhibitory effect on the civil insurrection, which is dominated by the civilian population. This result is still robust in the case of selecting standby variables and dealing with endogeneity. Secondly, this paper discusses the activities of constitutionalists in the preparatory period of constitutionalism, and finds that after 1910, the constitutionalists have significantly increased their political demands. This paper also examines the contributions of different classes to the victory of the 1911 Revolution, and finds that the number of civil revolts, the activities of the Revolutionary Party and the Constitutionalists have a significant positive impact. There were two reasons for the failure of the New deal in the late Qing Dynasty: first, the implementation of the New deal at the time of the financial collapse, which triggered the resistance of the people at the bottom; second, the Qing government strengthened the centralization of power while implementing local autonomy, which led to the dissatisfaction of the constitutionalists. Some of the constitutionalists turned to oppose the Qing government, and finally the Qing government lost its ruling foundation.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院财政系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71303196) 教育部人文社会科学一般项目(13YJA790061) 厦门大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”(2010221043)的资助
【分类号】：K252;F812.9

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