清代广西米价波动研究（1840-1910）

发布时间：2018-05-19 10:30

本文选题：广西 + 米价　；参考：《广西师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】："国以民为本,民以食为天。"这一谚语反映出民食问题的重要性。粮价亦被誉为社会的"晴雨表"。历代统治者都非常重视粮食的增产和调剂供应。清代满族入主中原,为求政权稳固,更加重视粮食问题。自康熙朝开始就要求各省督抚在其奏折中专门或者附带呈报当地粮价情况,并在乾隆元年(1736)把以府州为单位上奏粮价一事制度化,此后逐渐形成了系统的粮价数据。陶孟和、汤象龙等人在1930至1937年间对这批粮价档案进行了整理和统计,形成道光至宣统间粮价表。粮价表所载南方各省粮价以米价为主,广西省是为其一。通过整理、计算粮价表所载1840至1910年间广西米价,梳理这一时期广西米价的波动情况,包括长期趋势和年际波动。分析其特点、原因和影响,并以米价为线索考察当时广西社会经济的变迁。本文以马克思主义唯物史观为指导,运用历史学、社会学、经济学、统计学等学科的理论、方法和利用计算机等辅助工具,多维度、多视角探析广西米价的波动及其社会经济的变迁。并具体运用个案分析、计量分析、综合归纳等方法进行具体、深入的分析。本文由引言、广西米价波动情况综述、广西米价长期趋势变化的因素、广西米价年际波动变化的因素、广西米价波动的社会经济效应评析和结语六部分组成。文章引言部分介绍了选题的缘由和意义、资料收集与运用、研究思路和方法及内容等,并就学界关于清代米价研究的现状和不足进行回顾。第一章运用数理统计和个案分析等方法,分析了广西米价的长期趋势和年际波动的情况及其特点,并提出问题,即"广西省的米价以19世纪70年代为界,前后的状态为何发生了如此大的变化?第二章采用文献分析和数理统计相结合的方法,论述了广西米价长期趋势发生变化的因素。其中人口耕地这一传统的主导因素不再能够主导晚清广西米价长期趋势的变化。但通过分析,厘清了晚清时期广西人口耕地变迁的情况,即晚清时期广西的人口整体上保持着平稳增长的趋势,并未出现大幅度的升降的情况;而耕地面积亦未发生大的变化,基本上可以说是一个定量,人地矛盾并未进一步恶化。不过耕地的价格处于一种上涨的趋势中。因战争而出现的厘金制度毫无疑问地推动了米价上涨,但其影响力比较微弱。传统的银钱比例也只能够对米价的长期趋势构成一定的影响,而非根本性的。真正主导广西米价长期趋势变化的因素是世界白银价值的变化,二者间的相关系数为-0.74,具有显著的相关性。同时,中国紊乱的货币体系和世界经济周期也是其重要因素。第三章以个案分析为主,论述了广西米价年际波动稳定性发生改变的因素。战争会导致米价发生短暂的波动;灾害是广西米价发生年际波动的最直接因素,二者相关系数达0.825,属高度相关;同时,荒政机制的缺失加剧了米价波动的局面;当然,在这一过程中也萌发了一些调控米价的新措施,虽然其效用是微不足道的,但却昭示着未来社会新机制发展的方向,并奠定了一定的基础。第四章评析了广西米价波动的社会经济效应。它违背了价值规律,是社会经济的异动,米价低廉之时加重了农民的田赋负担,高涨之时促成了通货膨胀局面的形成;也是社会矛盾代谢的过程,灾害时期米价高涨,同时荒政机制缺失,致使米谷流通非正常化;更为甚者,高米价激发社会矛盾,造成社会动荡不安。之所以会出现这样的局面,与晚清中国不能应时应事而改变治国之策略、更新国家机构、顺应社会经济发展潮流关系密切。晚清广西米价的波动反映出了转型期社会经济的异象和新陈代谢,社会经济在受到资本主义世界市场冲击的同时,传统的社会经济矛盾仍然在继续发展,是半殖民地半封建社会背景下社会经济变迁的具体体现。广西社会经济的这一变迁,展示了转型期广西传统社会的痛苦和裂变。以史为鉴可以明得失,广西近代社会经济变迁的经验教训必将为我们今日的社会经济发展提供一定的借鉴和警示作用。我们应以史为鉴,从广西米价的波动中汲取经验、教训,推动今日社会经济的发展。
[Abstract]:The proverb reflects the importance of the problem of food and food. The grain price is also known as the "barometer" of the society. The rulers of all dynasties attach great importance to the increase of grain and the supply of food. The Manchu people of the Qing Dynasty were the main part of the Central Plains in order to seek political power and to pay more attention to food and food. Since the beginning of Kangxi, the governors were asked to play in them. In the yuan year of Qianlong (1736), the price of grain was institutionalized in the yuan year of Qianlong (1736), and the grain price data were gradually formed since the first year of Qianlong. The grain price of the southern provinces is mainly rice price, Guangxi province is one. Through sorting out the price of Guangxi rice price from 1840 to 1910, the fluctuation situation of Guangxi rice price in this period is combed, including the long-term trend and interannual fluctuation. The characteristics, reasons and effects are analyzed, and the change of the social and economic changes in Guangxi at that time is examined with the rice price as the clue. This paper, guided by the historical materialism of Marx, uses the theories of history, sociology, economics, statistics and other disciplines, methods and the use of computer and other auxiliary tools, multi dimension and multi perspective to analyze the fluctuation of Guangxi rice price and its social and economic changes, and concretely apply the methods of case analysis, measurement analysis and comprehensive induction. This article from the introduction, the Guangxi rice price fluctuation summary, the Guangxi rice price long-term trend change factor, the Guangxi rice price interannual fluctuation change factor, the Guangxi rice price fluctuation social economic effect evaluation and the conclusion six parts. The article introduction part introduced the reason and the significance of the topic, the data collection and application, the research thought In the first chapter, the paper analyzes the long-term trend and the interannual fluctuation of rice price in Guangxi and its characteristics, and puts forward some questions, namely, "the price of rice in Guangxi is bounded by 1870s, and what is the state of the front and back." The second chapter, with the combination of literature analysis and mathematical statistics, discusses the factors that change the long-term trend of rice price in Guangxi. Among them, the traditional dominant factor of population arable land is no longer able to lead the change of the long-term trend of rice price in the late Qing Dynasty in Guangxi. But through analysis, it clarifies the population ploughing of Guangxi in the late Qing Dynasty. The situation of land change, that is, the population of Guangxi in the late Qing Dynasty maintained a steady growth trend, and there was no large fluctuation, but the area of cultivated land had not changed greatly. Basically, it could be said to be a quantitative and the contradiction between human and land did not deteriorate further. However, the price of cultivated land was in a trend of rising. There is no doubt that the Li Jin system has promoted the rise of rice price, but its influence is weak. The proportion of traditional silver money can only affect the long-term trend of rice price, but not fundamental. The factor of the change of the long-term trend of Guangxi rice price is the change of the value of the world white silver, the correlation coefficient between the two is -0. 74, there is a significant correlation. At the same time, China's disorganized monetary system and the world economic cycle are also important factors. The third chapter mainly deals with the factors that change the stability of the inter annual fluctuation of rice price in Guangxi. The war will lead to a short fluctuation in the price of rice; the disaster is the most direct cause of the inter annual fluctuation of the rice price in Guangxi. The correlation coefficient of the two is 0.825, which is highly correlated; at the same time, the lack of the waste policy mechanism aggravates the situation of the fluctuation of rice price; of course, some new measures to regulate the price of rice have been sprouted in this process, although their utility is insignificant, it shows the direction of the development of the new mechanism of the future society, and lays a foundation for the fourth chapters. The social and economic effects of the fluctuation of rice price in Guangxi are evaluated and analyzed. It violates the law of value, is a social and economic movement, and it aggravates the farmer's burden of land when the price of rice is low. It also contributes to the formation of the inflation situation, the process of social contradiction metabolism, the high price of rice in the disaster period and the lack of the waste policy mechanism, which leads to the circulation of rice grain. In the late Qing Dynasty, the fluctuation of the rice price in the late Qing Dynasty reflected the difference of social economy in the transition period. The traditional social and economic contradictions are still developing and the concrete embodiment of social and economic changes under the background of semi colonial and semi feudal society. This change of social economy in Guangxi shows the pain and fission of the traditional society of Guangxi in the transition period. In order to understand the gains and losses, the experience and lessons of the modern social and economic changes in Guangxi will provide some reference and warning for our social and economic development today. We should learn from history and draw lessons from the fluctuation of rice price in Guangxi to promote the development of today's society and economy.
【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F329;K252

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