突发事件应急管理中的不确定性研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 09:36

本文选题：突发事件 + 应急管理　；参考：《北京林业大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：现代社会充满不确定性,在突发事件应急管理领域表现的尤为明显。本文在总结复杂性科学及风险管理中不确定性的相关研究基础上,主要运用文献研究法对突发事件应急管理不确定性进行分析,指出把握突发事件不确定性是突发事件应急管理的关键。论文第一章主要阐述了研究问题的背景及选题缘由、研究目的与意义,同时对相关研究现状进行综述,并介绍论文的研究思路、研究方法以及创新之处。第二章主要是界定突发事件、应急管理、不确定性三个基本概念的涵义及特征,并就本文的理论基础进行了论述。第三章在分析突发事件不确定性表现及特征的基础上,指出不确定性是突发事件的本质特征。随后对突发事件不确定性与应急管理不确定性的关系进行了分析,指出突发事件应急管理的关键是把握不确定性这一核心要素,并对突发事件应急管理不确定性的分析方法、表现及特征进行了分析。第四章主要对突发事件应急管理不确定性的层次与类型进行分析。在总结不确定性的层次研究成果基础上,根据突发事件应急管理不确定性的程度高低对突发事件应急管理不确定性的层次与类型进行了系统分析,并从突发事件认知程度与突发事件复杂程度两个维度对突发事件进行重新分类,进一步明确突发事件应急处置的重点和关键。第五章主要从完善突发事件应急管理知识体系、构建综合化应急管理体系和应急管理绩效体系三个方面就如何有效应对突发事件应急管理的不确定性提出了相应的建议。最后对论文的主要研究结论以及研究不足进行了总结。本研究从分析突发事件不确定性入手,较系统地分析了突发事件应急管理中的不确定性,在研究视角以及研究内容上有所创新,对于丰富突发事件应急管理理论研究及应急管理实践指导具有一定的意义。
[Abstract]:Modern society is full of uncertainty, especially in the field of emergency management. On the basis of summarizing the related research of complexity science and uncertainty in risk management, this paper mainly uses literature research method to analyze the uncertainty of emergency management. It is pointed out that the key to emergency management is to grasp the uncertainty of unexpected events. In the first chapter, the background, the reason, the purpose and the significance of the research are discussed. At the same time, the current situation of the research is summarized, and the research ideas, research methods and innovations are introduced. The second chapter mainly defines the meaning and characteristics of the three basic concepts of emergency, emergency management and uncertainty, and discusses the theoretical basis of this paper. The third chapter points out that uncertainty is the essential feature of unexpected event. Then it analyzes the relationship between the uncertainty of emergency management and the uncertainty of emergency management, and points out that the key to emergency management of emergencies is to grasp the uncertainty as a core element, and to analyze the uncertainty of emergency management of emergencies. Performance and characteristics are analyzed. The fourth chapter analyzes the level and type of uncertainty in emergency management. On the basis of summarizing the research results of uncertainty, this paper systematically analyzes the level and type of uncertainty in emergency management according to the degree of uncertainty in emergency management. Furthermore, it reclassifies the emergency from the two dimensions of the degree of cognition and complexity of the emergency, and further clarifies the focus and the key of the emergency response. The fifth chapter puts forward some suggestions on how to deal with the uncertainty of emergency management effectively from three aspects: perfecting the knowledge system of emergency management, constructing the integrated emergency management system and the performance system of emergency management. Finally, the main research conclusions and research deficiencies are summarized. This study begins with the analysis of the uncertainty of the emergency, and systematically analyzes the uncertainty in the emergency management, and innovates in the perspective of the research and the research content. It has certain significance for enriching the theory research of emergency management and the practical guidance of emergency management.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D035

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