面向突发事件的即兴决策研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 21:31

本文选题：突发事件 + 决策者　；参考：《山西师范大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着科技技术的快速发展，各种新观念、新思想的诞生给人类社会的发展带来了很大的益处。但是伴随人类活动的日益复杂化，人类的社会生存环境也渐趋危弱之势，各种突发事件频发，对领导者的执政能力提出了新的挑战。突发事件预案本身也呈现出了一定的局限性，另外国外学者在研究应对突发事件时所提出的三个问题：a.环境复杂多变，原先计划不得不随情景的改变而变化。b.各种信息技术的运用，决策者自身的应变的能力也比以往有所提高，分析问题做出决策的时间上有所缩短。c.决策者的有限理性，有时候对未来环境判断的偏差，要求他们必须在实践中不断地进行调整，分工假设所认为的“决策”与“执行”有时间的先后顺序，并由不同的人分别加以执行，但是实际上很多时候决策和执行是同时进行的，只是在不同空间而已。这些条件的限制，使得即兴决策应运而出。即兴决策就是决策者面对各种无法预料到的情况，，根据当时的情景，凭着自己的感觉与知识的判断，充分利用手边的人力资源或者物力，所做出的具有创作性或者建设性的决策。因此运用即兴决策已成为应对突发事件最有效的路径。由于突发事件具有阶段性特征，不同决策者的处置方法是不同的。面对越来越复杂的突发事件，为了提高应对突发事件的准确性，为了提高构建和谐社会的能力，研究中国政府各决策层在突发事件下的应对方法是很有必要的。因此即兴决策成为我们应对突发事件的最佳选择。本文在参考突发事件、即兴决策文献的基础上，结合案例分析了《突发事件应对法》中的三种主要类型的突发事件应对方式，分别从不同层级的应对策略和突发事件的过程分析了决策者的即兴应对方式，并且通过案例的分析，从四个方面得出了如何提高突发事件下即兴决策能力。文章正文主要为：三、四、五、六章的内容，第三章主要对即兴决策的相关内容进行了阐述，为后文在分析如何提高即兴决策能力的途径上做了铺垫。第四章主要以案例为主，选取了三组案例，分别为自然灾害类的突发事件、事故灾难类的突发事件和社会安全（群体事件）类突发事件，对领导者在这三类的应对方式上进行了分析。第五章是从突发事件的阶段性分析的，分别阐述了决策者在开始阶段、高潮阶段以及衰退阶段的决策。第六章总结出应对突发事件决策者应具备的能力。分别从四个方面来分析，如何提高决策者的即兴决策能力的途径。本论文的创新点就是对应不同的突发事件来分析不同决策层级的应具备的即兴决策的能力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of science and technology, the birth of new ideas and ideas has brought great benefits to the development of human society. However, with the increasing complexity of human activities, the social living environment of human beings is becoming more and more dangerous and weak, and a variety of emergencies occur frequently, which poses a new challenge to the ruling ability of leaders. In addition, foreign scholars put forward three questions: "A: a" when studying how to deal with emergencies. The environment was so complex that the original plan had to change with the change of the scene. With the application of all kinds of information technology, the ability of decision-makers to adapt themselves is also improved, and the time for making decision on analyzing problems is shortened. The limited rationality of decision makers, and sometimes the deviation of future environmental judgment, requires them to constantly adjust in practice. The division of labor assumes that the "decision" and "execution" have a time order. And implemented by different people, but in fact, decision-making and execution are often carried out simultaneously, only in different spaces. The limitations of these conditions make impromptu decisions to be carried out. Impromptu decision making is a decision maker who is faced with a variety of unexpected situations. According to the situation at that time, judging by his own feelings and knowledge, he can make full use of the human or material resources at hand. Creative or constructive decisions made. Therefore, the use of improvisation decision has become the most effective way to deal with emergencies. Because the emergency has the stage characteristic, the different decision-maker's disposal method is different. In the face of more and more complex emergencies, in order to improve the accuracy of dealing with emergencies and improve the ability to build a harmonious society, it is necessary to study the coping methods of all decision-making levels in Chinese government under unexpected events. Therefore, impromptu decision-making becomes the best choice for us to deal with unexpected events. On the basis of reference to emergency and impromptu decision making literature, this paper analyzes three main types of emergency response methods in the Emergency response method, combining with a case study. From different levels of coping strategies and the process of emergencies, this paper analyzes the impromptu coping style of decision makers, and through the analysis of cases, it concludes from four aspects how to improve the impromptu decision-making ability under unexpected events. The main text of the article is: three, four, five, six chapters, the third chapter mainly describes the content of impromptu decision-making, for the following analysis of how to improve the ability of impromptu decision-making on the way to do a foreshadowing. The fourth chapter mainly takes the case as the main, selects three groups of cases, respectively is the natural disaster type emergency, the accident disaster type emergency event and the social security (group event) class emergency event, This paper analyzes the three kinds of coping styles of leaders. The fifth chapter is an analysis of the stages of sudden events, respectively, the decision-makers in the initial stage, the climax stage and the recession stage of decision-making. The sixth chapter summarizes the ability of emergency decision makers. This paper analyzes the ways to improve the decision-makers'improvisation ability from four aspects. The innovation of this paper is to analyze the impromptu decision ability of different decision level.
【学位授予单位】：山西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D035

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