动态博弈在突发事件应急管理中的应用研究
发布时间：2018-10-19 20:43
【摘要】： 对突发事件应急管理的研究已经涉及体系建设、预案管理、教育培训、资源布局、资源调度、人员疏散等问题。由于突发事件发展演变过程的不确定性,整个应急管理过程就是一个动态博弈的过程。 动态博弈网络技术完整地描述了应急管理过程的动态性和博弈性,是由多个决策模型和方法有机组合而成的应急管理技术。本文从实际问题出发,围绕动态博弈网络技术中的决策模型展开研究。 首先,研究不完全信息状态下的动态博弈过程。应急方案与计划的制订应该根据事件发展阶段和状况进行连续的、实时的调整,因而,基于不完全信息状态下的动态博弈思维自然成为了我们动态制定应急处置方案的有力工具。通过分析突发事件应急处置过程中的管理主体之间、管理客体之间以及主客体之间存在广泛的博弈关系,在分析应急博弈的特性和各类要素的基础上,能够了解不完全信息状态下的大致博弈过程。 其次,研究不完全信息状态下的预案选择问题。在实际工作中,事件爆发初期的判断往往存在偏差,预案在执行过程中的动态调整必不可少。该问题是研究信息不完全时,资源有限和时间限制下,如何选择既满足处置要求又便于调整的预案。对于同一类突发事件编制的应急预案,不同预案对不同结果的处置效果不同,可以使用处置时间、动用资源和损失的大小来衡量。使用调整到最佳处置方案所用时间、资源和调整后方案的处置效果与最佳效果之间的偏差,来衡量预案之间转换和调整的难易程度和效果,在定义预案调整效能和处置效能概念的基础上,针对两种不同历史资料状况,建立调整效能与处置效能期望值最大化的数学模型和悲观原则下的预案选择模型。 第三,研究应急方案的网络表达。使用网络表达应急方案是使用动态博弈网络技术的基础,也是解决应急联动问题的方法之一。本文分析了实现应急联动的要素,在项目管理中的网络计划理论指导下,给出制定步骤。从应急过程的特征出发,增加了每条边的资源保障率的属性,并给出了此属性下的关键链管理方法。 最后,本文对以上工作进行了总结,并对进一步研究进行了展望。
[Abstract]:The research on emergency management has been involved in system construction, plan management, education and training, resource distribution, resource scheduling, personnel evacuation and so on. The whole process of emergency management is a dynamic game process because of the uncertainty of the development and evolution process of unexpected events. Dynamic game network technology describes the dynamic and game nature of emergency management process. It is an emergency management technology which is composed of multiple decision models and methods. In this paper, the decision model of dynamic game network technology is studied based on practical problems. Firstly, the dynamic game process under incomplete information is studied. Emergency plans and plans should be formulated in a continuous, real-time manner according to the stage and status of the event, so that, The dynamic game thinking based on incomplete information naturally becomes a powerful tool for us to make emergency solutions dynamically. Through the analysis of the extensive game relations among the management subjects, the management objects and the subject and object in the emergency handling process, the characteristics and various elements of the emergency game are analyzed. Can understand the rough game process in the state of incomplete information. Secondly, the problem of the selection of plan under incomplete information is studied. In the actual work, the judgment at the initial stage of the event is often biased, and the dynamic adjustment of the plan in the execution process is essential. The problem is how to choose a plan which meets the requirements of disposal and is easy to adjust when the information is incomplete and the resources are limited and the time limit is limited. For the emergency plan compiled by the same type of emergency, different plans have different effects on different results, which can be measured by using disposal time, using resources and the size of loss. Using the time taken to adjust to the optimal disposal plan, the deviation between the resources and the disposal effect of the adjusted programme and the best effect, to measure the ease and effectiveness of the conversion and adjustment between the plans, On the basis of defining the concepts of adjustment efficiency and disposal efficiency, the mathematical model of maximizing the expected value of adjustment efficiency and disposal effectiveness and the model of plan selection under the pessimistic principle are established in view of two different historical data conditions. Third, study the network expression of emergency plan. Using network to express emergency plan is the basis of using dynamic game network technology, and it is also one of the methods to solve the problem of emergency linkage. Under the guidance of network planning theory in project management, this paper analyzes the elements of realizing emergency linkage, and gives the steps of formulation. According to the characteristics of emergency process, the attribute of resource guarantee rate of each edge is added, and the key chain management method under this attribute is given. Finally, this paper summarizes the above work, and prospects for further research.
【学位授予单位】：中央民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D035
本文编号：2282312
[Abstract]:The research on emergency management has been involved in system construction, plan management, education and training, resource distribution, resource scheduling, personnel evacuation and so on. The whole process of emergency management is a dynamic game process because of the uncertainty of the development and evolution process of unexpected events. Dynamic game network technology describes the dynamic and game nature of emergency management process. It is an emergency management technology which is composed of multiple decision models and methods. In this paper, the decision model of dynamic game network technology is studied based on practical problems. Firstly, the dynamic game process under incomplete information is studied. Emergency plans and plans should be formulated in a continuous, real-time manner according to the stage and status of the event, so that, The dynamic game thinking based on incomplete information naturally becomes a powerful tool for us to make emergency solutions dynamically. Through the analysis of the extensive game relations among the management subjects, the management objects and the subject and object in the emergency handling process, the characteristics and various elements of the emergency game are analyzed. Can understand the rough game process in the state of incomplete information. Secondly, the problem of the selection of plan under incomplete information is studied. In the actual work, the judgment at the initial stage of the event is often biased, and the dynamic adjustment of the plan in the execution process is essential. The problem is how to choose a plan which meets the requirements of disposal and is easy to adjust when the information is incomplete and the resources are limited and the time limit is limited. For the emergency plan compiled by the same type of emergency, different plans have different effects on different results, which can be measured by using disposal time, using resources and the size of loss. Using the time taken to adjust to the optimal disposal plan, the deviation between the resources and the disposal effect of the adjusted programme and the best effect, to measure the ease and effectiveness of the conversion and adjustment between the plans, On the basis of defining the concepts of adjustment efficiency and disposal efficiency, the mathematical model of maximizing the expected value of adjustment efficiency and disposal effectiveness and the model of plan selection under the pessimistic principle are established in view of two different historical data conditions. Third, study the network expression of emergency plan. Using network to express emergency plan is the basis of using dynamic game network technology, and it is also one of the methods to solve the problem of emergency linkage. Under the guidance of network planning theory in project management, this paper analyzes the elements of realizing emergency linkage, and gives the steps of formulation. According to the characteristics of emergency process, the attribute of resource guarantee rate of each edge is added, and the key chain management method under this attribute is given. Finally, this paper summarizes the above work, and prospects for further research.
【学位授予单位】：中央民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：D035
【引证文献】
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 黄德启;面向区域路网的应急资源布局与调度方法研究[D];武汉理工大学;2012年
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 韩田田;基于复杂系统的应急管理协调研究[D];吉林大学;2012年
，本文编号：2282312
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