中国经济增长对碳排放量的非线性效应研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 02:32

本文关键词：中国经济增长对碳排放量的非线性效应研究　出处：《华东经济管理》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章使用非线性STR模型,分析2000-2015年间中国经济增长对碳排放的影响过程及结果。研究表明:Granger因果检验显示,人均GDP对人均碳排放量的变动存在单向影响关系;碳排放具有极强的惯性和累积性,上一期碳排放量和上一期经济增长对当期碳排放量都有显著正向影响;碳排放量增长具有典型的非线性效应,并出现了阶段性特征。其中,2000-2003年为线性特征,2004-2012年存在非线性效应,2013-2015年存在线性特征。这种线性与非线性之间的转换关系基本反映了中国近十五年来产业结构和投资结构的变化态势。现阶段需从能源供给结构、生产端和消费端进行综合能源结构的调整,通过构建各地区合理的碳排放约束性目标,实现碳排放与地区经济均衡发展的综合效应。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the nonlinear STR model is used to analyze the process and results of the impact of China's economic growth on carbon emissions from 2000 to 2015. Per capita GDP has a unidirectional effect on the change of per capita carbon emissions. Carbon emissions have strong inertia and accumulation, the last period of carbon emissions and the previous period of economic growth have a significant positive impact on the current carbon emissions; The increase of carbon emissions has typical nonlinear effect and has the stage characteristic, among which, 2000-2003 is the linear characteristic and 2004-2012 has the nonlinear effect. There is a linear characteristic in 2013-2015. The conversion between linearity and nonlinearity basically reflects the changing trend of industrial structure and investment structure in China in the past 15 years. At the present stage, the energy supply structure needs to be changed from the perspective of energy supply structure. . The comprehensive energy structure is adjusted at the end of production and consumption, and the comprehensive effect of carbon emission and balanced development of regional economy is realized by constructing reasonable binding targets of carbon emissions in various regions.
【作者单位】：郑州航空工业管理学院经贸学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD156)
【分类号】：F124.1;X22
【正文快照】： 一、引言中国经济高速增长的同时也伴随着碳排放量的迅速增加。根据王喜等(2016)测算,1990-2010年间,以不变价格计算,我国GDP实际增长了6.32倍,对碳排放增长的平均贡献率达到199.1%[1]。究其原因,以工业为主的产业结构和以煤炭、石油等化石能源为主的能源消费结构推动区域人均

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