基于景观格局的太湖流域生态风险评估

发布时间：2018-01-03 09:37

本文关键词：基于景观格局的太湖流域生态风险评估　出处：《应用生态学报》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：以太湖流域为例,采用2000、2005、2010、2015年4期景观类型数据,结合Markov和CLUE-S模型对2030年不同情景下景观类型进行模拟,构建景观生态风险指数,运用空间统计、重心迁移等方法,对太湖流域生态风险进行研究,揭示其景观生态风险时空演化特征及其规律.结果表明:2000—2015年,太湖流域以中生态风险和较低生态风险为主,高生态风险区主要分布在太湖湖区,低生态风险由太湖西南部和南部向太湖北部发达地区转移.景观生态风险与自然因素呈负相关,且相关性减弱,与社会经济因素相关性越来越强,景观生态风险受人类干扰越来越显著.社会经济因素对景观生态风险的影响,在不同城市化发展阶段的区域表现出显著差异:欠发达地区随着经济开发,景观日益破碎化,生态风险相应增加;发达地区则随着经济的进一步发展,城市化扩展使景观集聚成片,破碎度和分离度指数降低,生态建设得到恢复,景观生态风险随着经济发展开始降低.CLUE-S模型模拟预测表明,未来太湖流域景观生态风险将总体降低,主要以低生态风险和较低生态风险为主.太湖湖区不论在历史和未来都是高生态风险区,需要人们对太湖区域加强管理保护.
[Abstract]:Taking the Taihu Lake Basin as an example, the data of landscape types in two thousand and two thousand five and four periods in 2015 were used. Combined with Markov and CLUE-S models, the landscape types under different scenarios in 2030 were simulated, the landscape ecological risk index was constructed, and the methods of spatial statistics and center of gravity transfer were used. This paper studies the ecological risk of Taihu Basin, and reveals the space-time evolution characteristics and its regularity of landscape ecological risk. The results show that the Taihu Basin is dominated by middle ecological risk and low ecological risk from 2000 to 2015. The high ecological risk area is mainly distributed in Taihu Lake region, and the low ecological risk is transferred from the southwest and south of Taihu Lake to the developed area in the north of Taihu Lake. The landscape ecological risk is negatively correlated with natural factors, and the correlation is weakened. The relationship with social and economic factors is more and more strong, landscape ecological risk by human interference is becoming more and more significant. The impact of social and economic factors on landscape ecological risk. There are significant differences in the different stages of urbanization: with the development of economy, the landscape becomes more and more fragmented, and the ecological risk increases accordingly; With the further development of economy in the developed areas, the urbanization expansion made the landscape gather into pieces, the fragmentation and separation index decreased, and the ecological construction was restored. Landscape ecological risk with the economic development began to reduce. CLUE-S model simulation prediction shows that the future Taihu Basin landscape ecological risk will be reduced overall. The Taihu Lake region is a high ecological risk area both in history and in the future, so it is necessary for people to strengthen the management and protection of Taihu Lake region.
【作者单位】：曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院/南四湖湿地生态与环境保护山东省高校重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41072164) 曲阜师范大学南四湖湿地生态环境保护山东省重点实验室资助~~
【分类号】：X826
【正文快照】： 生态风险是生态系统及其组分所承受的风险,反映了生态系统因受人类活动、自然环境变化所导致的不良生态效应[1-2],生态风险评价是评估这种不良生态效应的过程[3].景观作为反映人类对自然生态系统影响方式与程度的主要载体,是研究人类活动对环境影响的适宜尺度[4-5].景观格局指

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