中国碳排放影响因子及其减排路径研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 17:17

本文关键词：中国碳排放影响因子及其减排路径研究　出处：《天津工业大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源作为人类生存、经济发展、社会进步不可缺少的基础性物质资源,是经济系统的基本生产要素,也是经济与社会发展的基本物资。随着能源和环境问题的不断凸显,如何协调能源-环境-经济(3E)系统已经成为中国,乃至全世界应对经济发展和气候变化的重要课题。本文在梳理国内外相关文献的基础上,对我国碳排放量进行了测算,并对其影响因素进行实证研究,为我国减排政策的制定提供可靠地理论支持。主要的研究内容包含以下几方面：1.在梳理相关文献的基础上,选择物料衡算法对1970—2012年间我国碳排放量进行了测算,并在此基础上,从时间和空间两个角度对我国碳排放现状进行了分析和研究,归纳和总结了我国碳排放现状及其特点。2.在分析总结York等人的相关研究模型的优缺点的基础上,本文在IPAT模型的基础上建立了STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression PAT)型,利用该模型对我国总体碳排放影响因素进行了实证研究,在参数的求解过程中为了避免多重共线性,采用了岭回归分析法。同时通过VAR模型进行脉冲响应分析,分析了各影响因素对碳排放的冲击和影响程度。3.清我国碳排放和经济发展程度之间的关系,借助于变形的STIRPAT模型,对全国及其各省碳排放的EKC假说进行了探讨,结果表明我国总体上还没出现倒“U”型曲线,但北京、上海、天津三地出现倒“U”型曲线。
[Abstract]:As a basic material resource for human survival, economic development and social progress, energy is the basic factor of production of economic system. It is also the basic material for the economic and social development. With the continuous highlight of energy and environmental problems, how to coordinate the energy-environment-economic 3E) system has become China. On the basis of combing the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper estimates the carbon emissions of our country, and makes an empirical study on its influencing factors. To provide reliable theoretical support for the formulation of emission reduction policies in China. The main research contents include the following aspects: 1. On the basis of combing the relevant literature. The material balance algorithm is selected to measure the carbon emissions from 1970 to 2012 in China, and on this basis, the current situation of carbon emissions in China is analyzed and studied from the perspective of time and space. Summarized the current situation and characteristics of carbon emissions in China. 2. On the basis of analyzing and summarizing the advantages and disadvantages of the relevant research models of York et al. Based on the IPAT model, the STIRPAT stastic Impacts by Regression AT-type is established in this paper. The model is used to study the influencing factors of total carbon emissions in China, and in order to avoid multiple collinearity in the process of solving the parameters. Ridge regression analysis method is used. At the same time, the impulse response analysis of VAR model is used to analyze the impact of various factors on carbon emissions and the impact degree .3.The relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in China is clarified. With the help of the deformed STIRPAT model, the EKC hypothesis of carbon emissions in China and its provinces is discussed. The results show that the inverted "U" curve has not been found in China as a whole, but in Beijing and Shanghai. The inverted "U" curve appears in the three places of Tianjin.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X321

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