基于静态与动态空间面板模型分析城镇化对雾霾的影响

发布时间：2018-01-14 20:20

  本文关键词：基于静态与动态空间面板模型分析城镇化对雾霾的影响　出处：《农业工程学报》2017年20期 　论文类型：期刊论文

  更多相关文章： 污染 模型 雾霾 城镇化 能源强度 交通压力 动态空间面板

【摘要】：该研究以中国30省区为研究对象,首先考察了雾霾污染的空间效应。全局Moran’s I指数为0.3875,中国雾霾污染存在着空间集聚。Moran’s I指数散点图显示中国雾霾污染存在着正的空间自相关,绝大部分省区位于高-高集聚和低-低集聚。然后,基于雾霾污染的空间效应,建立静态与动态空间面板计量经济学模型,实证考察了城镇化、能源强度、交通压力等对雾霾污染的影响。城镇化与雾霾污染之间存在环境库兹涅茨曲线;交通压力每上升一个百分点,将使雾霾污染上升0.2075个百分点。从效应的分解来看,该地区以及全局城镇化与雾霾污染之间存在环境库兹涅茨曲线。人均GDP的间接效应、总效应显著为负,该地区人均收入的上升可以使相邻地区的雾霾污染下降,并且会减少全局雾霾污染。能源强度下降会减轻本地区雾霾污染程度,但会导致相邻地区雾霾污染上升。能源消费结构直接效应为正,间接效应与总效应显著为正,煤炭消费比例的下降不但会减少本地区雾霾污染,也会显著抑制相邻地区的雾霾污染,进而减少全局雾霾污染。交通压力的直接效应显著为正,但间接效应显著为负,交通压力的上升会明显加重本地区雾霾污染程度,然而相邻地区交通压力上升会抑制本地区雾霾污染。动态空间杜宾面板计量模型中被解释变量滞后一期系数高达0.6114,且通过了1%水平下的显著性检验,中国雾霾污染存在时空依赖。动态空间面板计量模型比静态更为合适,估计结果更为准确,遗漏因素对雾霾污染的影响也很重要。
[Abstract]:In this study, the spatial effects of haze pollution were investigated in 30 provinces of China. The global Moran's I index was 0.3875. Spatial concentration of smog pollution in China. Morantes I index scatter plot shows that there is a positive spatial autocorrelation of smog pollution in China. Most provinces and regions are located in high-high concentration and low-low concentration. Then. Based on the spatial effect of haze pollution, the econometrics models of static and dynamic spatial panel are established, and the urbanization and energy intensity are investigated empirically. The influence of traffic pressure on haze pollution. There is an environmental Kuznets curve between urbanization and haze pollution. For every one percentage point increase in traffic pressure, smog pollution will rise by 0.2075 percentage points. There is an environmental Kuznets curve between urbanization and haze pollution in this area. The indirect effect of per capita GDP is significant negative. Rising per capita income in the region could reduce smog pollution in neighbouring regions and reduce overall smog pollution. A drop in energy intensity would reduce the level of smog pollution in the region. The direct effect of energy consumption structure is positive, the indirect effect and total effect are significantly positive, and the decrease of coal consumption ratio will not only reduce the haze pollution in this region. The direct effect of traffic pressure was significantly positive, but the indirect effect was significantly negative. The increase of traffic pressure will obviously aggravate the pollution of haze in this area. However, the increase of traffic pressure in adjacent areas will restrain the haze pollution in the region. The lag coefficient of the explained variables in the dynamic space Doberbin panel metering model is as high as 0.6114. Through the significance test at 1% level, the haze pollution in China is spatio-temporal dependent. The dynamic spatial panel metering model is more suitable than the static state, and the estimation results are more accurate. The influence of omission factors on haze pollution is also very important.
【作者单位】： 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院;南京晓庄学院商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71573138) 江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学研究指导项目(2016SJD790011) 江苏省高校“青蓝工程”资助 江苏高校境外研修计划资助
【分类号】：F299.21;X513
【正文快照】： 0引言2016年8月26日审议通过的“健康中国2030”规划纲要是履行中国对联合国“2030可持续发展议程”承诺的重要举措。“健康中国2030”规划纲要以提高人民健康水平为核心,着力营造绿色安全的健康环境。近几年,一些城市的雾霾天数增多,对居民身心健康带来了负面影响,引起了国内，

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