京津冀区域公路客运交通碳排放时空特征与调控预测

发布时间：2018-01-18 05:31

本文关键词：京津冀区域公路客运交通碳排放时空特征与调控预测　出处：《资源科学》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：运用机动车燃料消耗的碳排放直接测算方法,对京津冀区域2005-2014年公路客运交通碳排放进行了测算和时空分析;并借助LEAP模型,设定了基准增长、比例控制和总量控制三种调控情景,对区域未来的公路客运交通碳排放进行了预测和调控设想。结果表明:(1)从时间演变来看,虽然单位乘客碳排放强度大大降低,但区域总体公路客运交通碳排放绝对量却在稳步快速增长,区域碳减排压力持续增加;(2)从空间分异来看,京津二市碳排放一直处于领先地位,但河北11市碳排放的稳步提升也使河北省碳排放在京津冀区域中的比重大大抬升;(3)预测发现总量控制情景较比例控制情景有更大碳减排幅度,但两种控制情景的区域碳排放总量至2030年都会保持增长态势,因此区域公路客运交通的调控需要科学设计并加大力度。本研究可为区域交通管治政策制定和碳减排提供参考。
[Abstract]:The carbon emissions of highway passenger transport in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2014 were calculated and analyzed by using the direct carbon emission measurement method of motor vehicle fuel consumption. With the help of LEAP model, we set up three control scenarios: benchmark growth, proportional control and total control. The paper forecasts and regulates the future carbon emissions of regional road passenger transport. The results show that the carbon emission intensity per passenger is greatly reduced from the point of view of time evolution. However, the absolute amount of carbon emission from regional road passenger transport is increasing steadily and rapidly, and the pressure of regional carbon emission reduction is increasing. (2) in terms of spatial differentiation, the carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin two cities have been in the leading position, but the steady increase of carbon emissions in Hebei 11 cities has also greatly increased the proportion of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; Forecast found that the total control scenario than the proportional control scenario has a larger range of carbon emission reduction, but the two control scenarios of regional total carbon emissions will maintain the trend of growth until 2030. Therefore, the regulation and control of regional highway passenger traffic need to be scientifically designed and strengthened. This study can provide a reference for the formulation of regional traffic governance policy and the reduction of carbon emissions.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室;河南大学黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大项目(41590842);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71433008)
【分类号】：F542;X322
【正文快照】： 1引言城市群面临着更为严峻的资源和生态环境压力;这中国进入公路客运交通的机动化时代,这势必与集中的能源使用和碳排放有直接关联,特别是燃对区域能源的供给保障及其碳排放产生强烈影响[1]。油机动车数量的急剧攀升有较大贡献。那么,京津相关学者研究发现全球二氧化碳排放量

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