公路与铁路交通碳排放影响因素

发布时间：2018-02-20 06:36

本文关键词： 碳排放指数分解低碳交通公路交通铁路交通　出处：《清华大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为了探究公路与铁路交通CO_2排放的影响因素及其贡献率,该文建立了基于贡献率的残值分配Laspeyres指数分解方法(contribution-based residual distribution Laspeyres index,CRDLI),并选取了中国和其他6个国家为研究对象,构建了公路与铁路CO_2排放的二次分解模型。研究发现:周转量是影响各国公路与铁路CO_2排放的重要因素,1991—2010年,中国、澳大利亚、德国、日本、印度、英国和美国换算周转量引起的CO_2排放量变化分别为4.02、0.65、0.60、-0.12、2.33、0.24和4.84亿t;能耗强度和能源结构的改善是实现减缓CO_2排放增长或减少CO_2排放的重要途径;人均GDP的增长是推动公路与铁路周转量增长的最主要原因,降低周转量强度是减缓周转量上升进而减少CO_2排放的重要途径。为了实现中国交通部门的低碳发展,需要发掘技术节能潜力、调整运输结构、有效管理运输需求。
[Abstract]:In order to investigate the influence factors and their contribution rate of CO_2 emission from highway and railway traffic, this paper establishes a Laspeyres index decomposition method of residual value distribution based on contribution rate, and selects China and other six countries as the research objects. In this paper, a quadratic decomposition model of CO_2 emissions from roads and railways is constructed. The results show that the turnover is an important factor affecting the CO_2 emissions of highways and railways in various countries. China, Australia, Germany, Japan, India, China, Australia, Germany, Japan, India, China, The changes of CO_2 emissions caused by converted turnover in the United Kingdom and the United States are 4.02ng0.65n0.60n- 0.12n2.33c0.24 and 484 million t.The improvement of energy consumption intensity and energy structure is an important way to slow down the increase of CO_2 emissions or reduce CO_2 emissions. The increase of GDP per capita is the main reason to promote the increase of road and railway turnover, and reducing the intensity of turnover is an important way to slow down the increase of turnover and reduce the emission of CO_2. It is necessary to tap the potential of technical energy saving, adjust the transport structure, and effectively manage the transportation demand.
【作者单位】：清华大学现代管理中心;清华大学能源环境经济研究所;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAC20B01) 教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(12JJD630002)
【分类号】：X73

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