面向重建规划的灾后资源环境承载能力应急评价范式

发布时间：2018-02-24 04:31

本文关键词： 资源环境承载能力重建规划应急评价自然灾害范式　出处：《地理科学进展》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：从国家重建规划对资源环境承载能力应急评价的应用需求出发,解析重大灾害事件发生后承载能力应急评价难点,初步构建在灾后资源赋存、环境容量、生态安全以及灾害风险多重约束下,资源环境承载能力应急评价的基本范式与技术流程,并提出未来灾后承载能力评价及研究重点。研究表明:针对评价周期短、涉及内容广、决策风险高、不确定性强、数据基础不足等特点与难点,需从地域功能预估与指标体系、单项要素评价与技术准则、综合集成评价与重建分区、人口容量测算与重建模式4个方面实施灾后应急评价。未来,建议从灾后资源环境承载能力评价关键阈值与参数研究,应急评价辅助支撑体系与规划衔接技术研究,灾后承载能力演化特征与弹性机理研究,青藏高原边缘地带及近邻山区等灾害高风险区的重点研究与超前应对,以及灾后应急评价及重建规划的工作协调与应用推广等方面,进一步深化灾后资源环境承载能力研究,提升未来应急评价快速化、规范化、精准化水平,为增强国家和地方政府灾后系统应对能力提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:Starting from the application requirements of national reconstruction planning carrying the emergency ability evaluation of environmental resources, carrying capacity evaluation of emergency difficult to resolve major disaster events occurred after the preliminary construction of environmental capacity in post disaster resources, ecological security, and disaster risk under multiple constraints, the basic mode and technical process of emergency evaluation of carrying capacity of resources and environment, and put forward the future after the disaster bearing capacity evaluation and research focus. The study shows that the evaluation period is short, involving extensive content, high risk decision, uncertainty, lack of basic data features and difficulties, from the regional function prediction and index system, single factor evaluation and technology standards, integrated evaluation and reconstruction of the partition, the 4 aspects of population capacity calculation and reconstruction model implementation of emergency post disaster assessment. The future recommendations from the disaster bearing capacity of resources and environment evaluation of the threshold and the key parameters, emergency evaluation Study on the auxiliary system and planning technical support, the bearing capacity characteristics and evolution of the elastic mechanism after the disaster, and focus on high risk areas in advance to deal with the disaster zone and near the edge of the Tibetan plateau mountainous area, and to coordinate the work of emergency assessment and post disaster reconstruction planning and Application promotion, to further deepen the capacity of resources and environment carrying after the disaster, to enhance future emergency evaluation of rapid, standardized, accurate, provide a reference for the improvement of the state and local government system of disaster response capacity.

【作者单位】：中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41501139,41630644) 中国科学院特色研究所培育建设服务项目(TSYJS04);中国科学院科技服务网络计划(STS计划)项目(KFJ-STS-ZDTP-021)~~
【分类号】：X43;X24

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