中国制造业大气污染物排放影响因素分解研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 08:31

本文关键词： 二氧化硫二氧化碳指数分解分析影响因素制造业　出处：《武汉大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济快速增长,一跃变成GDP仅次于美国的第二大经济体,被称为"中国奇迹"。但是在快速的经济增长过程中也消耗了大量能源,带来严重的环境污染,以往的发展方式已经不能满足当今经济发展的需求。面临全球变暖、能源耗竭、生态破坏的大环境,控制污染气体的排放已经变成人类迫在眉睫的任务。其中,最为关键和主要的大气排放物就是二氧化硫和二氧化碳。由于制造业又是污染排放的大户,在此背景下,研究我国制造业各个行业的二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放的影响因素,并分析他们对排放的影响方向以及贡献大小具有一定的理论意义。由于二氧化硫、二氧化碳属于两种不同性质的排放物,所以本文试图探究两者的排放量变化差异,并分析各个影响因素对它们排放的贡献差异。本文的研究结论也会给我国制造业各个行业的节能减排政策提供十分重要指导意义。本文第一章介绍了研究背景,随后概述二氧化硫、二氧化碳影响因素研究的相关文献。第二章首先通过对基础理论的介绍和梳理,阐述了环境经济学和可持续发展理论,然后从理论角度解释了每个因素与二氧化硫与二氧化碳排放的关系及影响机理。本文第三章描述了作为主要大气污染物二氧化碳和二氧化硫的排放现状,包括区域特征和行业特征。第四章首先介绍了影响因素分析的两种方法:SDA和IDA,并着重介绍了 LMDI,即本文的研究方法,随后建立了 LMDI模型,并将我国制造业二氧化硫、二氧化碳排放的影响因素分解为经济规模因素、产业结构因素、技术进步因素、能源结构因素,由于"十一五"期间大力整治二氧化硫排放,所以在上述四个因素的基础上,把治理因素纳入到二氧化硫排放因素分解中。最后一章归纳结论并提出政策建议。结果显示:整个研究期间内,最大的增排因素是规模因素;最大的减排因素则是技术进步因素;能源结构的变化对排放量的影响具有波动性;产业结构优化对减排的贡献十分有限;由政策引起的治理因素则在"十一五"期间最为明显。规模因素和技术进步对二氧化硫、二氧化碳的影响周期略有差异。针对以上五个减排因素,本文提出以下政策建议:合理控制产能规模,早日实现经济发展与排放增加的脱钩;引导产业结构升级,淘汰落后产能,发展现代制造业;推动节能减排技术的进步,发展新材料、新能源技术,加强国际合作和交流;优化能源结构,降低化石能源的使用比例,大力发展新能源和可再生能源,依据地区能源结构来安排行业发展;加强治理与环境规制,减少尾端排放,提高治污效率。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has grown rapidly, becoming the second largest economy after the United States in GDP, known as the "Chinese miracle." but in the process of rapid economic growth, it has also consumed a lot of energy and brought serious environmental pollution. In the face of global warming, energy depletion and ecological destruction, controlling the emission of polluting gases has become an urgent task for mankind. The most critical and major atmospheric emissions are sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide. Since the manufacturing industry is also a major polluter, in this context, the factors affecting sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions in various sectors of the manufacturing industry in China are studied. It is of certain theoretical significance to analyze their influence direction and contribution to emissions. Because sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide belong to two different emissions, this paper tries to explore the difference of their emissions. The conclusion of this paper will also provide a very important guidance for the policies of energy saving and emission reduction in the manufacturing industry in China. The first chapter of this paper introduces the research background. The second chapter firstly introduces and combs the basic theory, expounds the environmental economics and the sustainable development theory, then summarizes the related literatures of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide influencing factors, the second chapter expounds the environmental economics and the sustainable development theory through the introduction and combing of the basic theory. Then, the relationship between each factor and sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emission and its influence mechanism are explained theoretically. Chapter three describes the current situation of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions, which are the main atmospheric pollutants. Chapter 4th introduces two methods of influencing factor analysis:: SDA and Ida, and mainly introduces LMDI, that is, the research method of this paper, then establishes the LMDI model, and introduces the sulfur dioxide of manufacturing industry in China. The factors that affect carbon dioxide emissions are divided into economic scale factors, industrial structure factors, technological progress factors, energy structure factors, as a result of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to vigorously regulate sulfur dioxide emissions, so on the basis of the above four factors, The final chapter summarizes the conclusion and puts forward the policy suggestion. The result shows that the biggest factor of increasing emission is the scale factor during the whole study period; The biggest factor of emission reduction is the factor of technological progress; the impact of energy structure change on emissions is volatile; the contribution of industrial structure optimization to emission reduction is very limited; The governance factors caused by the policy were most obvious during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. The scale factors and technological advances had slightly different impact cycles on SO2 and CO2. In view of the above five emission reduction factors, This paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: reasonably control the scale of production capacity, realize the decoupling of economic development and emission increase at an early date, guide the upgrading of industrial structure, eliminate backward production capacity, develop modern manufacturing industry, promote the progress of energy-saving and emission reduction technology, Develop new materials, new energy technologies, strengthen international cooperation and exchange, optimize energy structure, reduce the proportion of fossil energy use, vigorously develop new and renewable energy sources, and arrange industry development according to regional energy structure; Strengthen management and environmental regulation, reduce emissions at the tail end, and improve pollution control efficiency.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X701;X51;F424

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