黄河三角洲高效生态经济区复合生态经济系统仿真与优化对策研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 03:31

  本文选题：复合生态系统　切入点：系统动力学　出处：《山东理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：发展黄河三角洲高效生态经济区根本原则是资源高效利用和生态环境改善,着力点是优化产业结构、完善基础设施、推进基本公共服务均等化、创新体制机制,率先转变发展方式。在此背景下本文以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为例,对探索经济区发展方式进行了相关研究,以期为黄河三角洲高效生态经济区发展提供方向。本论文共分为六个部分:第一部分是绪论部分,着重介绍了研究背景与研究意义,在三方面回顾了复合生态系统的相关文献综述,并对本文的研究内容与论文技术路线做出了简单介绍。第二部分是对复合生态经济系统协调发展研究基础理论进行理论概述,着重介绍了复杂系统理论、可持续发展理论、复合生态系统理论以及系统动力学理论的内容与方法。第三部分首先确定了以东营和滨州两市为边界的研究区域,然后着重介绍了黄河三角洲高效生态经济区经济、社会、生态以及资源发展现状,为后续第四部分建模提供分析基础。第四部分和第五部分是本文的重点,第四部分主要工作是将黄河三角洲高效生态经济区划分为经济、社会、环境及资源四个子系统,并运用系统动力学方法构建了相应的子系统模型以及黄河三角洲复合生态经济系统动力学总模型;第五部是仿真与预测,首先运用黄河三角洲2005-2014年十年历史数据对模型进行了有效性检验,在通过有效性检验的基础上,本文设定了四种发展情景:情景Ⅰ(经济粗放式发展模式)、情景Ⅱ(重产业结构调整、降低供水缺口、耕地压力模式)、情景Ⅲ(重产业结构调整、降低供水缺口及耕地压力,轻水环境保护模式)、情景Ⅳ(协调发展模式)预测黄河三角洲高效生态经济区2018-2030年经济、环境、资源等发展状况,综合对比分析仿真结果后,认为情景Ⅳ(协调发展模式)是黄河三角洲高效生态经济区发展方向的最优情景,并给出了黄河三角洲发展相应的对策建议。第六部分是结论与展望部分,这部分首先总结了本文研究的重要结论,然后提出了本文在建模过程及后续工作应当注意的四个方面,为将来完善本研究提供了方向和切入点。
[Abstract]:The fundamental principles of developing the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow River Delta are the efficient utilization of resources and the improvement of the ecological environment. The focus is on optimizing the industrial structure, perfecting the infrastructure, promoting the equalization of basic public services, and innovating the system and mechanism. In this context, this paper takes the Yellow River Delta efficient ecological economic zone as an example to explore the development of the economic zone. This paper is divided into six parts: the first part is the introduction part, which mainly introduces the research background and significance. This paper reviews the literature review of the complex ecosystem in three aspects, and briefly introduces the research content and technical route of this paper. The second part is a theoretical overview of the basic theory of the coordinated development of the complex ecological economy system. The contents and methods of complex system theory, sustainable development theory, composite ecosystem theory and system dynamics theory are emphatically introduced. Then it introduces the economic, social, ecological and resource development status of the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow River Delta, which provides the analysis basis for the following part four modeling. The fourth and fifth parts are the key points of this paper. The fourth part of the main work is to divide the efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow River Delta into four subsystems: economy, society, environment and resources. The corresponding subsystem model and the general model of complex eco-economic system dynamics in the Yellow River Delta are constructed by using the system dynamics method. The fifth part is the simulation and prediction. First of all, the validity of the model is tested by using the historical data of the Yellow River Delta from 2005 to 2014, and on the basis of the validity test, This paper sets up four development scenarios: scenario 鈪，

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