基于蒙特卡洛模拟法的CDM碳资产评估研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 01:28

本文选题：CDM碳资产　切入点：CDM项目　出处：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：面对全球性的节能减排、保护环境和发展低碳经济的大趋势,碳交易市场的崛起成为必然。在《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》等交易机制的约束下,碳排放额等成为一种稀缺资源,具有了进行交易的商品属性,针对碳排放权和减排量的国际碳交易市场由此产生。以碳排放权和减排量为主的碳交易市场机制主要有三种:清洁发展机制(CDM)、联合履行机制(JI)和国际排放贸易机制(ET)。整体来看,发展中国家现阶段参与碳交易市场主要是通过CDM,因此发展中国家现阶段的碳资产主要由CDM项目所产生的碳资产,即CDM碳资产。目前,我国是CDM碳资产最大的供给方,CDM碳资产价值对于我国相关CDM项目投资决策和项目价值最大化具有重要意义。本文首先从全球碳市场和国内碳市场角度,总结了国际碳市场种类和国内碳市场的发展现状及趋势,分析了碳资产的由来,概念和特征及碳资产评估的经济学基础,在此基础上阐述了清洁发展机制运行原理和明确界定了CDM碳资产的内涵及其特殊性。其次,对CDM碳资产“量”和“价”两个方面分析了CDM碳资产价值评估的影响因素。把影响因素分为对CDM碳资产排放量的测定过程、市场供需因素、CDM项目交易成本、CDM项目风险因素以及CDM项目供需双方的议价能力这几个方面。最后,结合传统评估方法构建了CDM碳资产评估模型并实证分析。对传统评估方法在CDM碳资产中的适用性进行了分析,引入蒙特卡洛模拟法进行改进收益法的思想,利用蒙特卡洛模拟CERs价格,建立CDM碳资产评估模型,并用内蒙古商都县吉庆梁风电场二期49.5MW工程作为实例分析,得出项目中CDM碳资产的价值。本文构建了结合蒙特卡洛模拟法的CDM碳资产评估模型,为企业内的CDM碳资产价值评估及管理提供理论支持,也为其他类型碳资产的评估实践提供了理论支持,丰富了碳资产评估的研究。CDM碳资产是一种新型资产,其评估理论研究处于探索阶段。国际和国内尚未建立有关CDM碳资产评估标准和规范,相关研究亟须开展。限于时间、精力和能力,本文对于CDM碳资产评估的研究仍存在很多不完善之处,仍需要不断地开展和完善。
[Abstract]:In the face of global energy saving and emission reduction, environmental protection and the development of low carbon economy, the rise of carbon trading market is inevitable.Subject to trading mechanisms such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change and the Kyoto Protocol, carbon emissions have become a scarce resource with commodity attributes for trading,The international carbon trading market for carbon emission rights and emission reductions has thus emerged.There are three kinds of carbon trading market mechanisms, which are mainly carbon emission rights and emission reduction: clean development mechanism (CDM), joint implementation mechanism (JI) and international emissions trading mechanism (ETT).As a whole, developing countries participate in the carbon trading market mainly through CDMs at this stage. Therefore, the carbon assets in developing countries at this stage are mainly produced by the carbon assets generated by CDM projects, that is, CDM carbon assets.At present, China is the largest supplier of CDM carbon assets.In this paper, from the perspective of global carbon market and domestic carbon market, this paper summarizes the types of international carbon market and the current situation and trend of domestic carbon market, analyzes the origin, concept and characteristics of carbon assets and the economic basis of carbon asset evaluation.On this basis, the operating principle of clean development mechanism (CDM) and the connotation and particularity of CDM carbon assets are clearly defined.Secondly, the paper analyzes the influence factors of CDM carbon asset valuation from two aspects: quantity and price.The influencing factors are divided into the measurement process of CDM carbon asset emissions, the market supply and demand factors, the transaction cost of CDM project and the risk factors of CDM project, as well as the bargaining power of both suppliers and suppliers of CDM project.Finally, combined with the traditional assessment method, the CDM carbon assets assessment model is constructed and empirical analysis.This paper analyzes the applicability of traditional evaluation methods in CDM carbon assets, introduces the idea of Monte Carlo simulation to improve the income method, uses Monte Carlo to simulate the CERs price, and establishes the CDM carbon assets evaluation model.The second phase 49.5MW project of Jiqing Liang wind farm in Shangdu County Inner Mongolia is analyzed as an example and the value of CDM carbon assets in the project is obtained.This paper constructs a CDM carbon asset evaluation model combined with Monte Carlo simulation, which provides theoretical support for the valuation and management of CDM carbon assets in enterprises, and also provides theoretical support for the evaluation practice of other types of carbon assets.CDM carbon assets is a new type of assets, and its evaluation theory research is in the exploratory stage.International and domestic CDM carbon assets assessment standards and norms have not been established, the relevant research needs to be carried out.Due to the limitation of time, energy and ability, there are still many imperfections in the study of CDM carbon assets assessment, which still need to be carried out and perfected continuously.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196;F832.5;O242.2

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