城市化进程中江西省水环境安全评价及预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 20:51

本文选题：江西省 + 城市化　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：众所周知,水环境是占据着生态环境中非常重要的地位,同时,也是保障人们生命安全和促进社会走向健康发展的必要基础。城市化的一步步发展,让国家的社会经济取得了很大的进步,然而发展的同时也给生态环境带来了隐患,其中就包括水环境。近几年我国各大城市水质明显下降,频繁发生一系列水污染突发事件等问题,引起我国政府和社会各界的密切关注。因此,从本质上分析和理解水环境安全的内涵,降低水环境所造成的安全隐患对城市进展的妨碍,同时,对水环境与城市化之间的关系进行深入研究,合理配置社会及自然资源,对城市化以及国民经济的稳健发展具有一定的正向作用。本文以江西省为例,系统综述了国内外城市化与水环境问题研究进展、江西省水环境现状、水环境评价内容、方法以及标准后,参照国内外社会普遍采用的“压力-状态-响应”模型,依照江西省近年来的具体实情,本文构建出了江西省水环境安全评价体系,总共由3层27个指标组成。使用了包括综合应用熵值法、函数评价法和综合指数法在内的一系列方法对江西省水环境安全状况进行了评估。结果表明:江西省水环境安全度的变化呈现出波浪式上升趋势,2006年至2009年间,江西省水环境安全处于第Ⅳ级,即“中下”等级。2010年至2015年间,江西省水环境安全处于第Ⅲ级,即“中”等级,除个别年份有波动外,江西省综合安全整体处于改善上升趋势。在综合分析江西省2006—2015年间的水环境安全状况后,本文参照灰色预测理论,采用GM(1,1)模型,以2006—2015年水环境安全度为原始数据,经精度检验,证明模型合格后,对江西省2016—2020年水环境安全度变化趋势进行了预测,结果表明:江西省水环境综合安全度在未来五年中呈现总体上升趋势。自2016年起,预测江西省水环境综合安全度将一直保持在“良”以上的较高水平,并于2019年正式进入“优”等级。社会经济、生态环境、水环境三大系统综合安全度曲线均呈正线上升趋势。在2018年左右,社会经济系统安全度预测曲线将同水环境系统综合安全度预测曲线出现交叉情况,2018年后社会社会经济系统安全度预测曲线将位于水环境综合安全度预测曲线上方。说明社会经济系统安全度的变化对于综合安全度呈正向关系并且社会经济系统安全度的发展快于综合安全度的发展。最后,针对存在的问题,结合江西省水环境安全现状及趋势预测值,提出江西省水环境问题治理及保护对策建议。
[Abstract]:As we all know, the water environment occupies a very important position in the ecological environment, at the same time, it is also the necessary foundation to ensure the safety of people's lives and promote the healthy development of the society.With the development of urbanization, great progress has been made in the social economy of our country. However, the development also brings hidden trouble to the ecological environment, including the water environment.In recent years, the water quality of the major cities in China has declined obviously, and a series of water pollution emergencies have occurred frequently, which has aroused the close attention of our government and all walks of life.Therefore, the connotation of water environment safety is analyzed and understood in essence, and the hindrance to the progress of city caused by water environment is reduced. At the same time, the relationship between water environment and urbanization is deeply studied.Rational allocation of social and natural resources has a positive effect on urbanization and the steady development of national economy.Taking Jiangxi Province as an example, this paper systematically summarizes the research progress of urbanization and water environment problems at home and abroad, the present situation of water environment in Jiangxi Province, the contents, methods and standards of water environment evaluation.Referring to the "pressure-state-response" model commonly used in domestic and foreign society, and according to the actual situation of Jiangxi Province in recent years, a water environment safety evaluation system of Jiangxi Province is constructed, which consists of 27 indexes.A series of methods, including entropy method, function evaluation method and comprehensive index method, are used to evaluate the water environment safety in Jiangxi Province.The results show that the change of water environmental safety in Jiangxi Province shows a wave-like upward trend. From 2006 to 2009, the water environmental safety of Jiangxi Province is in the fourth grade, that is, the "middle and lower" level. From 2010 to 2015, the water environmental safety in Jiangxi Province is in the third level.In other words, the level of "medium", except for the fluctuation in individual years, the overall comprehensive security in Jiangxi Province is on the rise.Based on the comprehensive analysis of the water environment safety in Jiangxi Province from 2006 to 2015, this paper, referring to the grey prediction theory, adopts the GM-1) model and takes the water environment safety degree from 2006 to 2015 as the original data. After the accuracy test, the model is proved to be qualified.The variation trend of water environmental safety in Jiangxi Province from 2016 to 2020 is predicted. The results show that the comprehensive safety degree of water environment in Jiangxi Province will increase in the next five years.Since 2016, it has been predicted that the comprehensive safety of water environment in Jiangxi Province will remain at a high level above "good" and will officially enter the "excellent" level in 2019.The comprehensive safety curves of social economy, ecological environment and water environment all show a positive upward trend.In 2018 or so, the prediction curve of social and economic system safety degree will cross with the comprehensive safety degree prediction curve of water environment system. After 2018, the prediction curve of social economic system safety degree will be located above the water environment comprehensive safety degree forecast curve.It shows that the change of the security degree of the social economic system is positively related to the comprehensive security degree and the development of the security degree of the social economic system is faster than that of the comprehensive security degree.Finally, in view of the existing problems, combined with the present situation and trend forecast value of water environment safety in Jiangxi Province, the countermeasures and suggestions for water environmental problems treatment and protection in Jiangxi Province are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X824;F299.27

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