基于CGE模型的全国碳排放峰值目标区域分配方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 08:08

本文选题：峰值目标 + CGE模型　；参考：《天津科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,由二氧化碳排放剧增而引起的气候变化问题已成为全球共同关注的焦点问题。许多国家都已经采取一系列相关措施来减少本国的二氧化碳排放。中国作为全球最大的碳排放国家一直面对着来自国际上的巨大压力。2009年的哥本哈根会议上中国已做出限制碳排放量和加快能源结构转型的承诺,到2015年则正式承诺国家将于2030年左右实现碳排放峰值。实现国家整体碳排放峰值目标的关键点在于全国各区域都基本实现本区域的碳排放峰值目标,因此,如何将全国碳排放峰值目标科学、合理地分配到各个区域并指导各区域尽早实现峰值成为了当前中国政府面临的重大问题。由于全国各省市的发展状况差异较大,依据单一指标进行峰值目标的区域分配是行不通的,需要充分考虑各区域多方面的发展特点并结合全国未来发展趋势,才能对全国碳排放峰值目标进行科学、合理地区域分配。本文首先依据全国主体功能区分类对全国30个省市进行了区域划分,并详细分析各区域在经济、产业、能源和碳排放四个方面的特点。然后构建了一个预测中国到2050年整体经济发展、产业结构、能源消费和碳排放量的CGE模型,在此基础上参考各省市的发展特点,设计了全国碳排放峰值目标的区域分配方法,并进行了试分配。结果显示:在全国碳排放峰值目标方面,碳排放总量将在2025年实现峰值,达峰年份碳排放总量应在100亿吨以内,同时随着产业结构调整,第二产业比重逐渐降低,第三产业规模不断扩大,到2030年年均经济增长率将稳定在6%左右;分区域峰值目标上,各优化开发区平均将在2020年或之前实现峰值,2030年的碳排放量要比基准年碳排放量下降幅度超过10%;重点开发区达峰时间则相对较晚,预计将在2025年左右实现碳排放峰值,到2030年碳排放量要比基准年下降10%左右。
[Abstract]:In recent years, climate change caused by a dramatic increase in carbon dioxide emissions has become a focus of global concern. Many countries have adopted a series of relevant measures to reduce their own carbon dioxide emissions. China, as the world's largest carbon emitter, faces a direct face to the great pressure from the world for.2009 years. At the Hagen conference, China has made commitments to limit carbon emissions and accelerate the transformation of the energy structure. By 2015, it formally promised that the country will achieve its peak carbon emissions by 2030. The key point to achieve the national overall carbon emission peak is that all regions of the country have basically achieved its peak carbon emission target in the region. Therefore, how will the whole country be able to achieve the peak of its carbon emissions. The target of national carbon emission peak is scientific, rational distribution to each region and guiding the region to realize the peak value as soon as possible has become a major problem facing the current Chinese government. Because of the large difference in the development situation of all provinces and cities in China, it is not feasible to carry out the regional distribution of the peak target on the basis of a single index. The characteristics of the development and the future development trend of the country can make the national carbon emission peak target scientific and rational regional distribution. Firstly, according to the national main function area classification, 30 provinces and cities are divided into four areas, and the characteristics of each region in the economic, industrial, energy and carbon emissions are analyzed in detail. A CGE model is built to predict the overall economic development, industrial structure, energy consumption and carbon emissions in China by 2050. Based on the development characteristics of various provinces and cities, the regional distribution method of the national carbon emission peak target is designed and the trial distribution is carried out. The results show that the total carbon emission in the national carbon emission peak target is the total amount of carbon emissions. The peak value will be achieved in 2025. The total amount of carbon emissions in the peak year should be within 100 million tons. With the adjustment of the industrial structure, the proportion of the second industry is gradually reduced, the scale of the third industry is expanding, and the average annual economic growth rate will be stable at about 6% by 2030. On the target of regional peak, the average development zones will be realized in 2020 or before. The peak value of carbon emissions in 2030 is more than 10% compared to that of the base year carbon emissions; the peak time of the key development zone is relatively late. It is expected to achieve the peak of carbon emissions in about 2025. By 2030, the carbon emissions will be about 10% lower than that of the base year.

【学位授予单位】：天津科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X321

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