中国烤烟种植的效率及碳排放效率影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 10:06

本文选题：烤烟 + 种植效率　；参考：《西南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：烤烟是一种典型的农业经济作物,是中国大宗出口农产品之一,烟草业对中国税收有着极大的贡献。当前中国烟草业发展态势良好,但是烟草农业尚处于高成本、低科技的发展形势中,仍存在生产成本偏高、种植效率偏低的问题。此外,烟草业还是碳排放量较高的行业,从生产到售后都有着众多的温室气体排放,如烤烟种植时大量使用农药、化肥等会产生较多温室气体(如甲烷、氧化亚氮等),烟草工业部分机械和能源的使用等会产生碳排放,以及售后烟民吸烟过程中也会产生大量碳排放,每一环节都对环境产生影响。中国于2003年正式签署《烟草控制框架公约》,在全球控烟控碳环境下,中国因碳排放量大而存在较大的碳减排压力。在这样的控烟控碳环境下,烟草业要想确保在国民经济中的地位,实现行业发展目标,必须在烤烟种植发展的改善过程中,兼顾经济与环境的协调发展,注重经济的可持续发展,走低碳经济之路。那么,如何才能确保中国烤烟种植走低碳环保经济之路,实现持续平稳发展的目标?在实现经济与环境协调发展目标时,烤烟种植效率与碳排放效率各自呈现什么状况?两效率变动趋势间存在何种关系?哪些因素能够促进烤烟种植效率?哪些因素能够有效减少碳排放效率?通过对以上问题的研究,有助于中国烤烟种植业适应农业经济发展新形势、确保中国烤烟种植走低碳经济环保之路、实现持续平稳发展。综上,基于对以上问题的思考,本文旨在考察相同因素对中国烤烟种植效率和碳排放效率是否存在不同影响,从而为中国烤烟种植管理提供参考依据,最终对中国烤烟种植效率和碳排放效率进行有效控制。基于以上研究目的,本文首先对国内外已有研究进行梳理,分析中国烤烟种植研究现状和可进一步研究的问题。其次根据中国烤烟种植业历年数据,依托于DEA-Malmquist指数分析实证分析其种植效率和碳排放效率,总结出中国烤烟种植效率和碳排放效率基本特点与演变规律;再次在此基础上,结合静态Tobit模型和动态GMM模型深入分析中国烤烟种植效率及其碳排放效率的影响因素;最后根据前述实证研究结果为烤烟种植业管理和持续健康发展对策制定提供参考意见。本文的主要研究结论如下:1.中国烤烟种植效率增长主要受技术进步和政策调控影响。本文通过对烤烟种植效率的测算发现,种植效率呈现周期性波动,周期为两年,并且以2.9%的平均速度增长;通过对种植效率分解发现,技术进步是影响种植效率的主要动力,技术进步呈增长状的省份种植效率也增长,技术进步下降的省份种植效率也呈下降状。除了技术进步外,政策调控也对烤烟种植效率具有极大影响,种植效率基本都跟随着政策要求而波动。2.碳排放效率也存在波动现象,但未形成周期性波动。通过对碳排放效率测算发现,碳排放效率存在无周期的波动,在研究期间大部分时候碳排放效率都在相对下降,只有4年出现效率增长。3.促进农民增收、提供政策支持、强化防灾减灾体系能有效提高种植效率并降低碳排放效率。通过实证分析对比分析发现,首先,烤烟产值增加能有效抑制碳排放效率,而财政支农资金的增加不仅能促进种植效率提升,还能有效降低碳排放效率,是一个两全其美的可控因素;其次,受灾面积的增加不但会降低种植效率,同时还会提高碳排放效率,而碳排放的增加会导致自然灾害的增加,最终陷入恶性循环;最后,增加修理维护支出能有效促进种植效率提升,而增加农膜使用量则对种植效率无显著作用,却会导致碳排放效率的增加。最后,本文建议完善烤烟种植技术研发与推广机制,提高种植技术效率;采取差异化管理,针对性调控各省效率;加大财政支农力度,有效实现效率管理;加强烤烟农业防灾减灾体系,促进烤烟种植良性发展。
[Abstract]:Flue-cured tobacco is one of the typical agricultural economic crops and one of the major export agricultural products in China. Tobacco industry has a great contribution to China's tax revenue. At present, China's tobacco industry has a good trend of development, but tobacco agriculture is still at high cost. In the development situation of low science and technology, there are still high production costs and low planting efficiency. In addition, tobacco industry is still in the low development situation. Grass industry or high carbon emissions industry, from production to after sale, there are many greenhouse gas emissions, such as the large amount of pesticides used in the planting of flue-cured tobacco, chemical fertilizer will produce more greenhouse gases (such as methane, Nitrous Oxide, etc.), and the use of some machinery and energy in the tobacco industry will produce carbon emissions, as well as in the process of smoking after smoking. In 2003, China formally signed the tobacco control framework convention. In the global control of tobacco control, China has a large carbon emission reduction pressure under the global control of carbon control environment. In such a control of carbon control environment, the tobacco industry wants to ensure its status in the national economy and realize the industry. The development goal must be in the process of improving the development of flue-cured tobacco planting, taking into account the coordinated development of economy and environment, paying attention to the sustainable development of the economy and reducing the carbon economy. What is the relationship between the efficiency of flue-cured tobacco planting and the efficiency of carbon emissions? What is the relationship between the two efficiency changes? What factors can promote the efficiency of tobacco planting? Which factors can effectively reduce the efficiency of carbon emissions? Through the study of the above problems, it will help the Chinese tobacco planting industry to adapt to the new situation of agricultural economic development and ensure that the Chinese tobacco planting industry is able to adapt to the new situation of agricultural economy. On the basis of the above problems, this paper aims to investigate whether the same factors have different effects on the efficiency of tobacco planting and the efficiency of carbon emissions in China, so as to provide reference for the management of Chinese flue-cured tobacco planting, and finally to the efficiency of tobacco planting and carbon in China. On the basis of the above research purposes, this paper first combed the existing research at home and abroad, analyzed the current situation of Chinese flue-cured tobacco planting and the problems that could be further studied. Secondly, based on the years data of the Chinese flue-cured tobacco planting industry, it is based on the DEA-Malmquist index to analyze the efficiency of planting and the efficiency of carbon emissions. The basic characteristics and evolution rules of Chinese flue-cured tobacco planting efficiency and carbon emission efficiency were summarized. On the basis of this, the influence factors of tobacco planting efficiency and carbon emission efficiency in China were analyzed in combination with static Tobit model and dynamic GMM model. Finally, according to the previous empirical research, the management of tobacco planting industry and sustainable healthy development were made. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. the growth of Chinese flue-cured tobacco planting efficiency is mainly influenced by technological progress and policy regulation. Through the calculation of the efficiency of flue-cured tobacco planting, this paper finds that the planting efficiency has a periodic fluctuation, the cycle is two years, and the average rate of growth is 2.9%; the efficiency of planting is decomposed by the planting efficiency. It is found that technological progress is the main driving force that affects planting efficiency, the growing efficiency of the provinces with technological progress is increasing, and the efficiency of planting in provinces with declining technology is also decreasing. In addition to technological progress, policy regulation also has a great influence on the efficiency of tobacco planting, and the efficiency of planting is basically fluctuating with the policy requirements of.2. The carbon efficiency is also fluctuating, but there is no periodic fluctuation. Through the calculation of carbon emission efficiency, it is found that there is a periodic fluctuation in the efficiency of carbon emission. In the period of the study, the efficiency of carbon emission is falling relatively. Only 4 years' efficiency increase.3. promotes farmers' income increase, provides policy support, and strengthens the system of disaster prevention and reduction. It can effectively improve the efficiency of planting and reduce the efficiency of carbon emission. First, the increase in output value of flue-cured tobacco can effectively inhibit the efficiency of carbon emission, and the increase of financial support can not only promote the efficiency of planting, but also effectively reduce the efficiency of carbon emission. The increase will not only reduce the efficiency of planting, but also increase the efficiency of carbon emissions, but the increase of carbon emissions will lead to the increase of natural disasters and eventually fall into a vicious cycle. Finally, the increase of maintenance expenditure can effectively promote the efficiency of planting, while increasing the use of the membrane has no significant effect on the efficiency of planting, but it will lead to carbon emission efficiency. In the end, the paper proposes to improve the research and development and popularization mechanism of flue-cured tobacco planting technology, improve the efficiency of planting technology, adopt differential management, regulate the efficiency of various provinces, strengthen the financial support for agriculture, effectively realize the efficiency management, strengthen the system of disaster prevention and disaster reduction and promote the benign development of tobacco planting.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X712;F326.12

【参考文献】