基于CGE模型的碳税政策对中国经济结构影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 11:54

本文选题：可一般计算均衡模型 + 碳税　；参考：《江南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放近四十年来,中国经济实现了长达数十年的高速发展,经济总量也在不断地增加,并在2010年成为世界第二大经济体。经济高速发展的同时所产生的环境问题也不容忽视,大气污染和生态破坏等问题日益凸显。根据国际能源署公布的数据来看,我国的碳排放数据也在逐步的增加,从2004年的3671.934百万吨到2012年的6512.7百万吨,环境恶化和大气污染以及温室气体排放等问题对经济的持续增长和人民生活水平的提高造成巨大威胁。因此,要实现中国经济的可持续发展,必须走可持续的“低碳之路”,政府应结合现实国情,实施政治上可行、经济上有效的环境经济政策,实现节能降耗,这关系到广大人民的切身利益、关系到中华民族的长远发展。在减排政策的选择上,碳税机制的构建得到了较多学界研究者的肯定。目前我国对碳税征收仍处于试验和研究阶段,因此详细分析碳税对我国国民经济、产业结构、要素分配等方面的影响具有重要的实际意义。本文以投入产出理论、SAM理论、瓦尔拉斯一般均衡理论等作为理论基础,建立了碳税政策对中国经济影响的CGE模型,模拟分析了我国碳税政策对我国宏观经济的影响,系统分析了碳税政策对能源消费、能源价格、宏观经济变量、行业经济结构、要素流动等变量的影响。编制了《中国宏观社会核算矩阵》和《中国社会核算矩阵分解表》作为数据基础,以劳动力、资本和能源作为要素投入,构建了中国环境CGE模型,并结合学界的研究成果,确定了四种不同的碳税税率:20元/吨,40元/吨,50元/吨,80元/吨,探究了不同碳税税率对各经济变量的不同影响。研究表明:首先,碳税征收能促进二氧化碳排放量减少,也会提高煤炭、石油、天然气这三种化石能源的从价税率。由于较高碳排放系数的特征,煤炭的从价税率上涨幅度最大。其次,提高碳税征收水平会使煤炭、石油、天然气和火电消费量逐渐下降。其中煤炭能源消费量下降幅度最大,而火电消费量下降幅度较小。低碳能源受限于技术和研发成本限制,其消费量虽有上升但上升幅度较小。碳税征收对宏观经济变量产生负面影响,随着碳税税率的提高,这些变量的下降幅度也会逐渐增大。但政府收入和居民收入得到了一定提升,且政府收入增加幅度高于居民收入的增加幅度。另外,碳税征收降低了能源部门及能源密集型部门的总产出,提高了生产成本,化石能源行业产出下降幅度更大,其中煤炭行业的产出下降幅度最大。对非能源行业来说,征收碳税刺激了一些低碳行业的产出上涨。最后,碳税征收促使我国对化石能源部门的需求和消费减少,刺激低能耗行业的发展。基于以上研究,最后本文从确定合理碳税税率、扶持低碳能源的发展及优化产业结构等角度出发提出对策建议,全面推进、发挥联动效应,以更好地实现中国经济的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:After nearly 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has been developing at a high speed for decades, and its total economic output has been increasing, and it became the second largest economy in the world in 2010. The environmental problems caused by the rapid development of economy can not be ignored, and the problems of air pollution and ecological destruction are becoming more and more prominent. According to the data released by the International Energy Agency, China's carbon emissions data are also gradually increasing, from 3671.934 million tons in 2004 to 6512.7 million tons in 2012. Environmental degradation, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions pose a great threat to the sustained economic growth and the improvement of people's living standards. Therefore, in order to realize the sustainable development of China's economy, we must take a sustainable "low-carbon road", and the government should combine the actual situation, implement politically feasible and economically effective environmental and economic policies, and realize energy saving and consumption reduction. This concerns the vital interests of the broad masses of people and the long-term development of the Chinese nation. In the choice of emission reduction policy, the construction of carbon tax mechanism has been recognized by many academic researchers. At present, the collection of carbon tax in China is still in the experimental and research stage, so it is of great practical significance to analyze the impact of carbon tax on the national economy, industrial structure, factor distribution and so on. Based on the input-output theory and Valas general equilibrium theory, this paper establishes the CGE model of the impact of carbon tax policy on China's economy, and simulates and analyzes the impact of carbon tax policy on China's macro economy. The effects of carbon tax policy on energy consumption, energy price, macroeconomic variables, industry economic structure, factor flow and so on are systematically analyzed. In this paper, the CGE model of Chinese environment is constructed based on the matrix of macro-social accounting in China and the decomposition table of matrix of social accounting in China, which is based on labor, capital and energy, and combined with the research results of academic circles. Four different carbon tax rates: 20 yuan / ton 40 yuan / ton and 50 yuan / ton / ton 80 yuan / ton were determined, and the different effects of different carbon tax rates on each economic variable were explored. First of all, the levy of carbon tax can promote the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, but also increase the ad valorem tax rate of coal, oil and natural gas. Due to the characteristics of higher carbon emission coefficient, the ad valorem tax rate of coal increases the most. Second, higher carbon taxes will reduce consumption of coal, oil, natural gas and thermal power. Among them, coal energy consumption decreased the most, while thermal power consumption decreased by a small margin. Low-carbon energy is limited by technology and R & D costs, and consumption has risen slightly. Carbon tax collection has a negative impact on macroeconomic variables. With the increase of carbon tax rate, the decrease of these variables will gradually increase. However, the government income and resident income have been improved, and the increase rate of government income is higher than that of resident income. In addition, the carbon tax reduced total output in the energy and energy-intensive sectors, increased production costs, and even more sharply declined output in the fossil energy sector, with the largest drop in output in the coal sector. For the non-energy sector, a carbon tax has spurred higher output in some low-carbon sectors. Finally, the levy of carbon tax impels our country to reduce the demand and consumption of fossil energy sector, and stimulate the development of low energy consumption industry. Based on the above research, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from the angle of determining the reasonable carbon tax rate, supporting the development of low-carbon energy and optimizing the industrial structure, so as to promote the overall development and bring into play the linkage effect. In order to better achieve the sustainable development of China's economy.
【学位授予单位】：江南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196;F812.42;F124

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