基于InVEST模型的南四湖流域生态系统服务空间格局研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 11:27

本文选题：生态系统服务 + InVEST模型　；参考：《曲阜师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：生态系统服务功能是当前生态系统评估的研究热点,对人类生存发展及生态系统的保护着至关重要的作用,生态系统服务的好坏直接影响着社会经济的可持续发展。GIS、RS技术以及相关生态模型的研究为生态系统服务的空间化研究提供了强有力的技术支撑。本文以南四湖流域为例,采用综合生态系统服务功能价值评估及权衡模型(InVEST,Integrated Valuation of Environment Services and Tradeoffs),模拟了近25年来南四湖流域生态系统产水量、总氮、总磷输出和泥沙输出的空间分布,运用ArcGIS分析产水量、总氮、总磷输出和泥沙输出的空间分布格局以及变化规律,并分析了1990-2013年土地利用变化趋势,探讨了降水、地形等自然地理要素以及人口、土地利用和国内生产总值(GDP)等社会经济因素与生态系统服务空间格局动态变化之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)流域产水量在空间格局上呈现出由东向西递减的趋势,东部、东北部等山区、丘陵地区产水量高,西部平原地区产水相对较低;受自然地理要素影响,流域产水量空间分布与GDP、人口密度的空间分布格局有较大差异。近25年来,流域产水量呈现减少趋势,且产水量峰值区域由东北部向偏南地区转移,最低值由西部向中部地区转移。降水、海拔和坡度等地理环境与产水量的变化呈显著正相关,其中降水量的相关程度最强;人口、GDP等社会经济数据与产水量变化也呈显著正相关,主要原因在于城市化的发展、城市建设用地等不透水层的增加,促进了流域产水量。(2)1990-2013年南四湖流域总氮、总磷输出总量呈上升的变化趋势。城市建设用地面积变化与南四湖流域的总氮、总磷输出呈显著正相关,说明城镇用地对总氮、总磷的输出起促进作用。林地、草地与总氮、总磷输出的变化呈现显著负相关,表明林地、草地对南四湖流域总氮、总磷的输出起抑制作用,起了净化水质的作用。降水、海拔和坡度等地理环境与总磷、总氮的变化呈显著正相关,其中降雨量与其相关最强。GDP与总氮、总磷的输出也呈正相关,促进了流域总磷、总氮的输出。(3)研究期内,流域产沙量总体上呈减少趋势,土地利用变化和泥沙输出的相关分析表明,耕地面积变化与泥沙输出呈现显著正相关,促进了流域泥沙输出。林地和建设用地变化与流域泥沙输出均呈显著负相关,抑制了泥沙的输出。研究结果可以为流域生态系统服务管理方案制定以及社会经济发展规划等宏观决策提供科学支撑。
[Abstract]:Ecosystem service function is the research hotspot of current ecosystem assessment, which plays an important role in the survival and development of human beings and the protection of ecosystem. The quality of ecosystem services has a direct impact on the sustainable development of social economy. GIS-RS technology and related ecological models provide a strong technical support for the spatial study of ecosystem services. Taking the Nansihu Basin as an example, the spatial distribution of water production, total nitrogen, total phosphorus output and sediment output in the ecosystem of Nansihu Lake Basin in recent 25 years was simulated by using the integrated Valuation of Environment Services and tradeoffsof integrated ecosystem service value assessment and trade-off model. ArcGIS was used to analyze the spatial distribution pattern and variation law of water output, total nitrogen, total phosphorus output and sediment output, and the trend of land use change from 1990 to 2013 was analyzed, and the natural geographical factors such as precipitation, topography and population were discussed. The relationship between social and economic factors such as land use and gross domestic product (GDP) and dynamic changes of spatial pattern of ecosystem services. The results show that the water production of the watershed decreases from east to west in the spatial pattern. The water production in the hilly areas of the eastern, northeast and mountainous regions is high, and the water production in the western plain is relatively low, which is affected by the natural geographical factors. The spatial distribution pattern of water production is different from that of GDPand population density. In the last 25 years, the water production of the basin has decreased, and the peak region of water production has shifted from the northeast to the south, and the lowest value from the west to the central region. There is a significant positive correlation between precipitation, elevation and slope and the change of water production, among which the correlation degree of precipitation is the strongest, and the social and economic data such as population and GDP are also positively correlated with the change of water production, which is mainly due to the development of urbanization. The increase of impervious layers such as urban construction land promoted the total nitrogen and total phosphorus output of Nansihu Lake basin from 1990 to 2013. The change of urban construction land area was positively correlated with the total nitrogen and total phosphorus output of the Nansihu Lake basin, indicating that the urban land use played a positive role in promoting the total nitrogen and total phosphorus output. There was a significant negative correlation between total nitrogen and total phosphorus output in forestland and grassland, which indicated that forest land and grassland played an important role in inhibiting the output of total nitrogen and total phosphorus and purifying water quality. The changes of total phosphorus and total nitrogen were positively correlated with precipitation, elevation and slope, and the rainfall had the strongest correlation with total nitrogen. GDP and total phosphorus output were also positively correlated, which promoted the output of total phosphorus, total nitrogen and total nitrogen during the period of study. The correlation analysis of land use change and sediment output showed that the change of cultivated land area was positively correlated with sediment output, which promoted sediment output. The variation of forest land and construction land was negatively correlated with sediment output, which inhibited the sediment output. The results of the study can provide scientific support for macro decision making of watershed ecosystem service management scheme and social and economic development planning.
【学位授予单位】：曲阜师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X171.1

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