浙江省海岸带生态承载力评估研究

发布时间：2018-06-01 19:17

本文选题：海岸带生态系统 + 生态承载力评估　；参考：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：生态承载力是衡量生态系统可持续发展的重要评估指标。随着海洋开发活动蓬勃发展,海岸带出现了资源日渐匮乏、环境质量下降、生态风险升高等一系列问题,海岸带生态系统呈现出一定的退化趋势。因此,科学评估海岸带生态承载力,将人类活动控制在海岸带生态系统抗干扰调节能力之内,对实现海岸带复合系统可持续发展有着重要的现实意义。然而目前关于海洋生态承载力研究仍处于探索阶段,还尚未形成公认的理论方法体系、系统的指标体系和综合评价模型。浙江省是一个海岸资源丰富的大省,具有许多得天独厚的优势。随着海洋经济的发展,海洋生态环境的污染和破坏、赤潮灾害的频发、海岸带开发过程中对海洋生态资源和结构的破坏等也制约着浙江省海岸带地区生态环境健康、可持续发展。海岸带生态承载力评估研究是一个多学科相交叉的研究课题,本文研究了海岸带生态承载力评价的理论基础,建立了海岸带生态承载力评估方法体系,以浙江省为例进行了研究,取得如下主要成果:(1)在对国内外承载力的研究的基础上,以复合生态系统理论、可持续发展理论和基于生态系统管理的理论为指导,提出了海岸带生态承载力概念模型,探讨了海岸带生态承载力的理论内涵,在识别海岸带生态承载力的承载体和承载对象的基础上,分析了两者之间的相互作用关系。结合评估指标构建原则,以概念模型为基础,建立了海岸带生态承载力评估指标框架。主要包括人类活动、社会经济发展和生态弹力这三个模块。(2)研究分析浙江省海岸带地区自然、社会和经济条件,选择了代表浙江省海岸带生态承载力的18个指标,通过对指标进行主、客观赋权,结合指标体系评价法,研究了 2006年到2015年十年间浙江省海岸带生态承载力的变化趋势。结果显示,浙江省海岸带承载力总体上呈下降趋势,2006年到2010年整体处于可载状态,并且2010年生态承载力已经接近于满载状态,然后自2011年起处于超载状态。(3)利用回归模型,预测了浙江省海岸带地区2016年到2020年的生态承载力变化趋势。结果显示,2016年到2020年生态承载力处于缓慢回升状态,呈现较好的发展趋势,但仍处于超载状态。针对海岸带生态承载力的变化趋势,提出来改善海岸带生态承载力的可行性建议。
[Abstract]:Ecological carrying capacity is an important evaluation index to measure the sustainable development of ecosystem. With the vigorous development of marine development activities, coastal zone has appeared a series of problems, such as the increasingly scarce resources, the decline of environmental quality, the rise of ecological risk, and so on. The coastal zone ecosystem shows a certain trend of degradation. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity of coastal zone scientifically and to control human activities within the anti-interference regulation ability of coastal zone ecosystem for realizing the sustainable development of coastal zone complex system. However, the research on marine ecological carrying capacity is still in the exploratory stage, and has not yet formed a generally accepted theoretical and methodological system, a systematic index system and a comprehensive evaluation model. Zhejiang Province is a coastal resources rich province, with many unique advantages. With the development of marine economy, the pollution and destruction of marine ecological environment, the frequent occurrence of red tide disaster, and the destruction of marine ecological resources and structure in the process of coastal zone development, the ecological environment of coastal zone in Zhejiang Province is also restricted. Sustainable development The evaluation of ecological carrying capacity of coastal zone is a multidisciplinary research topic. This paper studies the theoretical basis of ecological carrying capacity evaluation of coastal zone, and establishes the evaluation method system of ecological carrying capacity of coastal zone. Taking Zhejiang Province as an example, the following main achievements were obtained: 1) based on the research of bearing capacity at home and abroad, the theory of composite ecosystem, the theory of sustainable development and the theory of ecosystem management were used as the guidance. The conceptual model of ecological carrying capacity of coastal zone is put forward, and the theoretical connotation of ecological carrying capacity of coastal zone is discussed. On the basis of identifying the carrying body and carrying object of ecological carrying capacity of coastal zone, the interaction between them is analyzed. Based on the concept model, the evaluation index framework of ecological carrying capacity of coastal zone is established. It mainly includes three modules: human activities, social and economic development and ecological elasticity.) the natural, social and economic conditions in the coastal zone of Zhejiang Province are studied and analyzed, and 18 indicators representing the ecological carrying capacity of the coastal zone in Zhejiang Province are selected. Through subjective and objective empowerment of indicators and evaluation of index system, the change trend of ecological carrying capacity in coastal zone of Zhejiang Province from 2006 to 2015 was studied. The results show that the overall carrying capacity of coastal zone in Zhejiang Province is in the state of being able to carry from 2006 to 2010, and the ecological carrying capacity in 2010 has been close to the state of full load, and then it has been in the state of overloading since 2011. The trend of ecological carrying capacity in coastal zone of Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2020 is predicted. The results show that the ecological carrying capacity is slowly rising from 2016 to 2020, showing a good trend of development, but still in a state of overload. According to the changing trend of ecological carrying capacity in coastal zone, the feasibility suggestions for improving ecological carrying capacity of coastal zone are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P748;X826

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