沅江市土地利用碳排放的时序特征及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-01 19:29

本文选题：土地利用 + 能源消费　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在全球范围研究低碳经济和碳排放的领域中,共识是以土地利用为其关键入手点,也是使碳排放被控制的重要目标。本文是通过在国内外对于土地利用碳排放研究的解读上,从影响土地利用碳排放的各个因素以及对土地利用碳排放的核算方法这两个方面,对与之相关的文献进行了整理,基于以前的文献研究来确定进一步研究的方向。接下来核算沅江市的净碳排放量及相关指标,以沅江市2006-2015年这十年里各种土地利用类型数据及其能源消费数据为依据,并进一步分析了沅江市碳排放总量等相关指标的时序特征。之后,选取五个因素,通过运用改进的Kaya恒等式以及LMDI分解法对沅江市净碳排放进行了因素分解。对上述各因素在基期和T期碳排放的差异值进行计算,运用乘法和加法两种模式,从而得出在土地利用碳排放方面,各因素对其的贡献值与贡献率。然后基于整个研究期间,分析各个因素对碳排放的影响。最后分别从四个角度提出了对碳排放调控相应的政策建议。通过上述现象的分析讨论分析,本文得到了下面的结论:(1)沅江市研究期内建设用地碳排放量在2011年达到了最大值,它的变化趋势也和研究区的净碳排放量一致,说明了沅江市净碳排放量的变化趋势由建设用地碳排放量的变化趋势决定。(2)对碳减排起促进作用因素的有单位GDP用地强度和单位土地碳排放强度,其中促进作用最明显的是单位GDP用地强度这个因素,促进作用相对不明显的是单位土地碳排放强度对碳减排这个因素,但是后者波动较大。(3)导致沅江市碳排放增长的重要原因是其土地使用结构在单方面由农业向城市用地的转变。要使城市的碳排放量得以下降,降低土地的碳排放强度是最有效的方法,然而要使其在较短的时间内实现,只有通过减少消耗化石能源来达成,但从长远的利益来看,化石能源消耗单独抑制的办法不利于沅江市的经济发展。降低土地的单位利用强度对减少城市碳排放量来说起着非常重要的作用,由于研究期内单位GDP土地使用强度贡献率通过计算可以得到每年的变化趋势线即平缓又曲折,所以单位土地使用GDP的强度减小是个长期性的工作,很大程度上要依靠技术的革新还有产业的升级。本文的研究基础是沅江市2006-2015年间各种土地利用类型,计算出碳排放数据,对它进行分析,并找出影响它的主要因素,并对它们的影响关系进行定量研究,根据研究结果来提供相对应的的政策和建议。这个研究对完成沅江市“十三五”低碳发展目标,实现沅江市土地的可持续发展和土地的低碳利用都有极其重要的现实意义。
[Abstract]:In the field of global research on low-carbon economy and carbon emissions, the consensus is that land use is the key point, and it is also an important goal to control carbon emissions. In this paper, through the interpretation of the land use carbon emissions at home and abroad, from the impact of each factor of land use carbon emissions and the accounting method of land use carbon emissions, the paper collates the related documents. Based on the previous literature research to determine the direction of further research. The next step is to calculate the net carbon emissions and related indicators of Yuanjiang City, based on the data on various land use types and their energy consumption data for the decade 2006-2015 in Yuanjiang City. Furthermore, the temporal characteristics of related indexes such as total carbon emission in Yuanjiang are analyzed. Then, five factors were selected to decompose the net carbon emissions of Yuanjiang by using the improved Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition method. The difference values of carbon emissions in the base period and T period were calculated and the contribution value and contribution rate of each factor to the carbon emission of land use were obtained by using multiplication and addition models. Then, based on the whole study period, the influence of various factors on carbon emissions is analyzed. Finally, the corresponding policy suggestions on carbon emission regulation are put forward from four angles. Based on the analysis and analysis of the above phenomena, the following conclusion is drawn: during the research period of Yuanjiang City, the carbon emissions from construction land reached the maximum in 2011, and its changing trend is consistent with the net carbon emissions of the research area. It is shown that the change trend of net carbon emissions in Yuanjiang City is determined by the change trend of carbon emissions from construction land. The land intensity per unit GDP and the carbon emission intensity per unit land play an important role in carbon emission reduction. Among these factors, the most obvious one is the land intensity per unit GDP, and the other factor is the carbon emission intensity per unit land to reduce carbon emissions. However, the main reason for the increase of carbon emissions in Yuanjiang is the change of land use structure from agriculture to urban land. Reducing the intensity of carbon emissions from land is the most effective way to reduce urban carbon emissions, but in a shorter time it can be achieved only by reducing the consumption of fossil energy, but in the long run. The method of suppressing fossil energy consumption alone is not conducive to the economic development of Yuanjiang City. Reducing the unit utilization intensity of land plays a very important role in reducing urban carbon emissions, because the contribution rate of land use intensity per unit GDP can be calculated to get the trend line of annual change, which is gentle and tortuous. So reducing the intensity of GDP per unit of land use is a long-term task, largely dependent on technological innovation and industrial upgrading. This paper is based on various land use types in Yuanjiang City from 2006 to 2015, calculates the carbon emission data, analyzes it, finds out the main factors that affect it, and makes a quantitative study on their impact relationships. Provide corresponding policies and recommendations based on the results of the study. This study is of great practical significance in accomplishing the low carbon development goal of Yuanjiang City during the 13th Five-Year Plan and realizing the sustainable development of land and the low carbon utilization of land in Yuanjiang City.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X24;F301.2

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