北京市能源消费结构对空气质量影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 03:50

本文选题：北京市 + 空气质量　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源是一种重要的资源,但能源的开发和利用过程也对自然环境造成污染和破坏,危害人体健康。作为人口2000万以上的超大型城市,北京的能源需求量巨大,且2015年化石能源在能源消费结构中占比高达76%,化石燃料燃烧产生大量的大气污染物。在此背景下,本文运用定量分析方法,评价北京市空气质量,分析北京市能源消费结构对空气质量的影响,探讨进一步改善能源消费结构,治理大气污染的对策。本文分析了北京市2000-2015年SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5浓度状况,并用灰色聚类模型来评价北京市2000-2015年的空气质量综合水平。结果表明,北京市2000-2015年期间SO2、PM10年均浓度呈下降趋势,NO2、PM2.5浓度在2000-2007年下降,在2008年以后降幅很小,窄幅波动;2000-2007年空气质量为III级,2008年以后均为II级,空气质量总体上逐渐提高。本文分析了北京市2000-2015年能源消费结构的变化、主要能源的用途和存在的问题,并运用协整分析和误差修正模型分别分析能源消费结构对SO2、NO2、PM10、PM2.5年均浓度和以第三灰类聚类系数代表的空气质量综合指数的影响,结果表明:一、煤品和油品在能源消费结构中占比对空气质量综合指数和各污染物浓度有正向的影响;天然气在总能耗中的占比对空气质量综合指数和SO2、PM10浓度有负向的影响,对NO2、PM2.5浓度有正向的影响,其不充分燃烧可能会产生NO2和少量的PM2.5;电力在总能耗中的占比对空气质量综合指数和各污染物浓度均有负向的影响。二、北京市煤品在总能耗中占比的降低及电力占比的提高有效地降低了各污染物浓度并提高了空气质量整体水平,但同时油品占比的大幅提高制约着北京市NO2、PM2.5浓度的降低,使得北京市大气污染面临着新的挑战,天然气只能作为能源消费结构调整的过渡在一定程度上改善空气质量。在此实证研究的基础上,指出治理能源相关大气污染的根本性措施是减少化石能源消费,提高新能源和可再生能源在总能耗中的比重,并提出推动分布式光伏与电动汽车协同发展等措施。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important resource, but the process of energy development and utilization also causes pollution and destruction to the natural environment and endangering human health. As a super large city over 20 million of the population, Beijing has a huge demand for energy. In 2015, fossil fuels accounted for 76% of the energy consumption structure, and the burning of fossil fuels produced a large amount of atmosphere. In this context, the quantitative analysis method is used to evaluate the air quality in Beijing City, analyze the influence of energy consumption structure on the air quality in Beijing, and discuss the countermeasures to further improve the energy consumption structure and control the air pollution. This paper analyzes the concentration status of SO2, NO2, PM10, and PM2.5 in Beijing City, and uses grey clustering model. The overall level of air quality in Beijing for 2000-2015 years was evaluated for 2000-2015 years. The results showed that the average annual concentration of PM10 was decreasing in the period of 2000-2015 years in the city of Beijing. The concentration of NO2 and PM2.5 decreased in 2000-2007 Years. After 2008, the decline was very small and the narrow amplitude fluctuated; the air quality was III grade in 2000-2007 Years and II grade after 2008, and the air quality was overall on the whole. This paper analyzes the changes in energy consumption structure in Beijing for 2000-2015 years, the use and existing problems of the main energy sources, and the effects of the energy consumption structure on the annual concentration of SO2, NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and the air mass index represented by the third ash clustering coefficient respectively by the cointegration analysis and error correction model. It shows that: first, coal and oil have a positive influence on the air quality comprehensive index and the concentration of all pollutants in the energy consumption structure; the total energy consumption of natural gas has a negative influence on the air mass index and the concentration of SO2 and PM10, and has a positive effect on the concentration of NO2 and PM2.5, and its insufficient combustion may produce NO2 and less. The amount of PM2.5 in the total energy consumption has a negative impact on the air quality index and the concentration of all pollutants. Two, the decrease of the proportion of the total energy consumption and the increase of the electric power ratio in Beijing effectively reduce the concentration of the pollutants and improve the overall level of the air quality, but at the same time, the proportion of oil products is greatly improved. With the reduction of the concentration of NO2 and PM2.5 in Beijing, the air pollution in Beijing is facing new challenges. Natural gas can only be used as a transition of energy consumption structure to improve the air quality to a certain extent. On the basis of this empirical study, it is pointed out that the fundamental measures to control the air pollution related to energy are to reduce fossil energy consumption and increase the consumption of fossil energy. The proportion of new energy and renewable energy in total energy consumption, and put forward measures to promote the coordinated development of distributed photovoltaic and electric vehicles.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X51;F426.2

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