山西省用水生态足迹和污染水生态足迹研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 20:32

本文选题：水资源 + 生态足迹　；参考：《山西师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：水不仅是人类社会生存发展的基础性自然资本,更是一个国家经济发展的重要战略性资本,也是影响生态环境的重要因素。伴随人类社会的不断进步与国家经济的快速发展,水资源的供需矛盾越来越突出,目前,水资源危机已成为影响人类社会生存与发展的重要生态因子,在水资源贫乏的国家和区域表现更为严重。山西是我国严重缺水的典型省份,水资源特点为总量少,地区分布差异较大。随着水资源供求矛盾加剧,地下水过度开采,居民节水意识薄弱,以及水资源的不合理利用,水污染和水生态环境日益恶化,严重威胁到人们的用水安全。因此必须科学规划水资源利用状况,提高居民节水意识,加大水污染治理,提高水资源重复利用率,实现水资源的可持续利用。本文运用水资源生态足迹,污染水生态足迹和生态承载力模型,对山西省2005-2015年的水资源利用状况进行全方位分析,并结合水资源可持续利用的各项评价指标,综合分析了山西省水资源可持续发展与利用的状况。在此基础上,利用迪氏指数分解法(LMDI模型)解析了山西省用水生态足迹变化的驱动因素。最后,通过曲线回归预测法拟合了山西省用水生态足迹和污染水生态足迹的预测模型,并对山西省2016-2020年用水状况进行预测。研究结果表明:(1)2005-2015年我国的人均用水生态足迹为0.7371 hm2/人,山西省仅为0.3084hm2/人,不到全国平均水平的一半,这说明山西省用水量远远低于全国用水量;整体上看,山西省总用水生态足迹呈逐年上升趋势。其中,农业用水生态足迹所占的份额最多,为59.87%;其次为工业用水生态足迹,占总用水生态足迹的21.75%。(2)2005-2015年山西省平均水资源生态承载力为0.0358 hm2/人,仅占全国的2.75%,这说明山西省的水资源极度匮乏。水资源生态承载力总体呈上升趋势,2013年人均水资源生态承载力达到最大值,为0.0595 hm2/人,最小值出现在2011年,为0.0208hm2/人。在山西11个地级市中,水资源生态承载力最大的是晋城市,为0.930 hm2/人,最小的是太原市仅为0.0139 hm2/人,两者相差达66倍之多,说明山西省水资源生态承载力的地区差异较大。(3)山西省多年人均污染水生态足迹整体呈下降趋势,平均值为0.4909 hm2/人,高于其人均用水生态足迹的平均值;2010-2015年山西省污染水消耗一直处于生态赤字状态,污染水生态压力指数都大于1,水资源现有供给量无法满足污水达标排放后自然净化的水资源需求量,这说明污染水生态足迹已经成为导致山西省水资源危机不可忽略的因素之一。由此可见,地区的水资源生态足迹账户的划分应该主要考虑:水质型(污染型)用水账户和结构型(资源型)用水账户,这种水资源生态足迹的账户划分方法更符合水资源匮乏的实际情况。(4)山西省2005-2015年平均水资源生态赤字为0.274 hm2/人,总体呈上升趋势;水资源生态压力指数远高于临界值1,说明山西省水资源状况一直处于极度匮乏的状态;平均水资源负载指数为15.69,属于Ⅰ级,说明全省水资源消耗量大于供给量,威胁水资源的可持续利用,说明山西省水资源开发潜力小,需要大规模从省外调水才能满足山西省的用水需求。万元GDP产业用水生态足迹值为0.1363 hm2/a,占全国的48.89%,并且整体呈逐年下降趋势,这与山西省近年来大力发展绿色经济,调整产业布局,加大水污染治理和提高水资源重复利用的科技投入有重要关系。(5)通过迪氏指数分解法研究表明,山西省水资源变化的驱动因子包括经济效应,技术效应,结构效应和人口效应。经济效应、人口效应和结构效应的分解值都大于零,对山西省水资源生态足迹的增长起到推动作用,不利于山西水资源的可持续利用与发展。技术效应的分解值小于零,对山西省水资源生态足迹的增长起到抑制作用,同时对山西水资源的可持续利用与发展起到积极作用。(6)通过曲线回归预测法筛选出山西省水资源生态足迹的最优曲线估计模型为:y=0.114-0.016*(x-2004)+0.004*(x-2004)+0.0000198*(x-2004)3,相关系数R2=0.867;污染水生态足迹的最优曲线估计模型为:y=1902.385-2.373*(x-2009)-8.006*(x-2009)2,相关系数R2=0.988。结果显示,未来五年山西省总用水生态足迹和污染水生态足迹呈下降趋势。
[Abstract]:Water is not only the basic natural capital for the survival and development of human society, but also an important strategic capital for the economic development of a country. It is also an important factor affecting the ecological environment. With the continuous progress of the human society and the rapid development of the national economy, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources becomes more and more prominent. At present, the water resource crisis has become an impact. The important ecological factors for the survival and development of human society are more serious in countries and regions with poor water resources. Shanxi is a typical province of serious water shortage in China. The characteristics of water resources are small and regional distribution is different. With the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, groundwater exploitation, weak awareness of water saving and water resources Unreasonable use, water pollution and the worsening ecological environment of water, seriously threaten people's water safety. Therefore, we must scientifically plan the utilization of water resources, improve the consciousness of water saving, increase the control of water pollution, improve the reuse rate of water resources, and realize the sustainable utilization of water resources. The model of state footprint and ecological carrying capacity is used to make a comprehensive analysis of the water resources utilization in Shanxi province for 2005-2015 years. Combined with the evaluation indexes of the sustainable utilization of water resources, the status of the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in Shanxi province is analyzed. On this basis, the LMDI model is used to analyze Shanxi province. The driving factors of the change of ecological footprint of water use. Finally, the prediction model of the ecological footprint of water use and the ecological footprint of polluted water in Shanxi province is fitted by the curve regression prediction method, and the water use status of Shanxi province for 2016-2020 years is predicted. The results show that (1) the ecological footprint of water per person in China is 0.7371 hm2/ in 2005-2015 years and Shanxi province only For 0.3084hm2/ people, less than half of the national average, this shows that the water consumption of Shanxi is far below the national water consumption. Overall, the ecological footprint of total water use in Shanxi province is increasing year by year. Among them, the ecological footprint of agricultural water use is 59.87%, followed by the ecological footprint of industrial water, accounting for 21.7 of the ecological footprint of total water use. The average water resources ecological carrying capacity of Shanxi Province in 5%. (2) 2005-2015 years is 0.0358 hm2/ people, accounting for only 2.75% of the country. This shows that the water resources in Shanxi province are extremely scarce. The ecological carrying capacity of water resources is on the rise. In 2013, the ecological carrying capacity of water resources per person reached the maximum value of 0.0595 hm2/ people, the minimum value appeared in 2011, for 0.0208hm2/ people. Among the 11 cities in Shanxi, the largest ecological carrying capacity of water resources is Jincheng, which is 0.930 hm2/ people, and the smallest is 0.0139 hm2/ people in Taiyuan. The difference between the two is more than 66 times, indicating that the regional differences in ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Shanxi province are large. (3) the ecological footprint of the polluted water in Shanxi province for many years is decreasing, the average value is 0.4909 hm2/ people are higher than the average ecological footprint of water use per capita. In 2010-2015 years, the pollution water consumption in Shanxi has been in the state of ecological deficit, and the ecological pressure index of polluted water is more than 1. The current supply of water resources can not meet the natural purification of water resources after the discharge of the standard sewage, which shows that the ecological footprint of polluted water has become a good result. One of the factors that lead to the water resource crisis in Shanxi province can not be ignored. Therefore, the division of the ecological footprint accounts of water resources in the region should be mainly considered: water quality (polluted) water account and structural (resource type) water account. The method of dividing the account of the ecological footprint of this water resource is more in line with the actual situation of water shortage. (4) mountain The average water resource ecological deficit of 2005-2015 years in western province is 0.274 hm2/ people, and the total water resource ecological pressure index is far higher than the critical value of 1, which indicates that the water resources in Shanxi province is in a state of extreme shortage, and the average water resource load index is 15.69, which belongs to grade I, indicating that the water resources consumption of the province is greater than the supply and threatens the water. The sustainable utilization of resources shows that the development potential of water resources in Shanxi province is small. It is necessary to meet the demand of water use in Shanxi Province on a large scale. The ecological footprint value of the 10000 yuan GDP industrial water use is 0.1363 hm2/a, accounting for 48.89% of the whole country, and the overall trend is declining year by year. This is with Shanxi province to develop green economy and adjust the industry in recent years. There is an important relationship between increasing water pollution control and improving water resources reuse. (5) through the dedi decomposition method, the research shows that the driving factors of the change of water resources in Shanxi province include economic effect, technical effect, structure effect and population effect. The economic effect, population effect and structural effect are all greater than zero, The growth of the ecological footprint of water resources in Shanxi province has played a driving role, which is not conducive to the sustainable utilization and development of water resources in Shanxi. The decomposition value of the technical effect is less than zero, which plays an inhibitory role in the growth of the ecological footprint of water resources in Shanxi Province, and plays a positive role in the sustainable utilization and development of water resources in Shanxi. (6) through the curve regression analysis The optimal curve estimation model of the ecological footprint of water resources in Shanxi province is: y=0.114-0.016* (x-2004) +0.004* (x-2004) +0.0000198* (x-2004) 3, correlation coefficient R2=0.867; the optimal curve estimation model of the ecological footprint of polluted water is y=1902.385-2.373* (x-2009) -8.006* (x-2009) 2, correlation coefficient R2=0.988. results show, the future five years mountain The total ecological footprint of water and the ecological footprint of polluted water showed a downward trend.
【学位授予单位】：山西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4;X22

【参考文献】