基于环境承载力的京津冀雾霾治理政策效果评估

发布时间：2018-06-21 20:19

本文选题：环境承载力 + 京津冀　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年09期

【摘要】：雾霾污染治理是京津冀协同发展需要解决的重大问题。2013年9月颁布的"大气污染防治行动计划(大气国十条)"明确提出了京津冀地区雾霾治理目标,各地区也制定了雾霾污染治理的政策措施。本文旨在环境承载力分析的基础上评估雾霾治理的政策效果。首先,分析了京津冀地区大气环境污染特征,并结合相关文献确定京津冀地区雾霾治理的主要影响因素为污染物排放、风力以及相邻地区的传输效应等;其次,将影响PM_(2.5)浓度主要因素进行统计建模,并采用分位数回归模型进行矫正,大大提高模型的拟合精度;再次,基于大气国十条规定的京津冀各地区的PM_(2.5)年均浓度目标计算各地区的大气环境承载力;最后,在假定风力等气象条件不变的情况下,根据大气国十条规定的京津冀地区的污染物排放量利用统计模型模拟2017年的雾霾污染水平,模拟除张家口、承德和秦皇岛以外其余10个地区年均浓度60μg/m~3和70μg/m~3目标下PM_(2.5)日均浓度发生频率的变化情况,评估和讨论大气国十条提出的京津冀雾霾治理目标。结果表明:按照大气国十条减排计划的京津冀地区污染物排放量普遍高于其PM_(2.5)浓度目标下的大气环境容量(邯郸市除外),即大气国十条所规定的减排措施难以实现既定的PM_(2.5)浓度目标;PM_(2.5)年均浓度目标从60μg/m~3上升到70μg/m~3,重污染天气发生频率上升有限,大气污染物的减排量却显著下降。因此,要实现既定的雾霾浓度控制目标,天津和河北需要进一步加大污染物减排力度;雾霾治理应注重减少重污染天气的发生频率,治理重点应转向重度雾霾发生频率较高的冬季污染物排放控制;在科学确定环境承载力的基础上,确定切实可行的PM_(2.5)浓度控制目标,制定具有可操作性的污染物减排计划。
[Abstract]:The control of smog pollution is a major problem that needs to be solved in the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Air pollution (10 articles of the National atmosphere) promulgated in September 2013 clearly sets out the objectives for the control of smog in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Various regions also formulated smog pollution control policy measures. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the policy effect of smog control on the basis of environmental carrying capacity analysis. Firstly, the characteristics of air pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are analyzed, and the main influencing factors of smog control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area are determined as pollutant emission, wind force and transport effect in adjacent areas. The main factors affecting the concentration of PMcases 2.5) were modeled statistically and corrected by quantile regression model, which greatly improved the fitting accuracy of the model. Based on the average annual concentration target of PMT 2.5 in each region of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, as stipulated in the National Atmospheric State, the atmospheric environmental carrying capacity of each region is calculated. Finally, assuming that the meteorological conditions such as wind force are not changed, According to the statistical model of pollutant emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region stipulated by the State of China in the atmosphere, the level of smog pollution in 2017 is simulated, and the pollution level of smog is simulated in addition to Zhangjiakou. The change of daily average concentration frequency under the average daily concentration of 60 渭 g/m~3 and 70 渭 g/m~3 in the other 10 regions outside Chengde and Qinhuangdao was evaluated and discussed, and the control target of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei smog was evaluated and discussed. The results show that the atmospheric environmental capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under the atmospheric emission reduction plan is generally higher than that of its PMSP 2.5) concentration target (except Handan city, that is, the emission reduction measures stipulated by the atmospheric state 10) are difficult to implement. The annual average concentration target is increasing from 60 渭 g/m~3 to 70 渭 g / mm3, with a limited increase in frequency of heavy pollution weather. The emission reduction of atmospheric pollutants has decreased significantly. Therefore, in order to achieve the established smog concentration control target, Tianjin and Hebei need to further increase the emission reduction of pollutants; smog control should focus on reducing the frequency of heavy pollution weather. On the basis of the scientific determination of environmental carrying capacity, the feasible concentration control target of PMG 2.5) should be determined, and the feasible pollutant emission reduction plan should be worked out.
【作者单位】：中国科学院大学经济与管理学院;中国人民大学经济学院;香港城市大学公共政策系;北京工业大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国经济绿色发展的理论内涵、实现路径与政策创新”(批准号:15ZDC006);国家社会科学基金重点项目“空间经济学理论模型及在中国的应用”(批准号:13AZD082)
【分类号】：X823

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